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CDC Telebriefing on Investigation of Human Cases of Novel Influenza A
- Thread starter HenryN
- Start date
Re: CDC Telebriefing on Investigation of Human Cases of Novel Influenza A
I don't see any value in guessing. Deaths are exploding in Buenois Aires, so today's guess will be obsolete tomorrow.
BioSafeT
Member
Re: CDC Telebriefing on Investigation of Human Cases of Novel Influenza A
"We are working with modelers to come up with some estimates. The million is actually estimating the symptomatic. It's not assuming that there's asymptomatic cases, but it is assuming that people are ill with this virus and don't seek medical care "
Anyone care to take a guess at what the TOTAL total is...symptomatic + asymptomatic? Isn't there a public health rule of thumb, like "for every 1 lab confirmed case, there are 1000 unconfirmed cases" ? So Is there a rule of thumb for how many cases are asymptomatic for every case that IS symptomatic?
BST
"We are working with modelers to come up with some estimates. The million is actually estimating the symptomatic. It's not assuming that there's asymptomatic cases, but it is assuming that people are ill with this virus and don't seek medical care "
Anyone care to take a guess at what the TOTAL total is...symptomatic + asymptomatic? Isn't there a public health rule of thumb, like "for every 1 lab confirmed case, there are 1000 unconfirmed cases" ? So Is there a rule of thumb for how many cases are asymptomatic for every case that IS symptomatic?
BST
gsgs
Registered User
Re: CDC Telebriefing on Investigation of Human Cases of Novel Influenza A
no such rule. Serology required. They say it's difficult, takes time.
But shouldn't they have done it in NYC in the meantime ?
Just a dozend or such...
Well, maybe they did already but keep it secret until the study
is completed (and published ?)
You can maybe estimate the number of asymptomatic infections
when you have enough data about symptomatic cases and their
contacts. That's maybe what they mean with modeling.
And again, I assume they already have some results or reasonable
estimates, but won't tell us.
Rarely ever do I get the impression that someone just talks with
us, as you talk with friends. Those friends are saying so much,
full of ideas. No so politicians,scientists in interviews, sigh.
no such rule. Serology required. They say it's difficult, takes time.
But shouldn't they have done it in NYC in the meantime ?
Just a dozend or such...
Well, maybe they did already but keep it secret until the study
is completed (and published ?)
You can maybe estimate the number of asymptomatic infections
when you have enough data about symptomatic cases and their
contacts. That's maybe what they mean with modeling.
And again, I assume they already have some results or reasonable
estimates, but won't tell us.
Rarely ever do I get the impression that someone just talks with
us, as you talk with friends. Those friends are saying so much,
full of ideas. No so politicians,scientists in interviews, sigh.
Re: CDC Telebriefing on Investigation of Human Cases of Novel Influenza A
Anne Schuchat: About the serology, right. We are working on serologic assays and we are doing, in the midst of serologic surveys, there's a number of ways that those assays would be evaluated. We're working with Mexico on understanding the, what we call the bottom of the pyramid, people who might have had milder illness are really asymptomatic illness but have been exposed and infected with this virus without actually knowing it. We're doing that in some of the areas here in the U.S. that have been affected.
We've actually got some projects going on in the households where people have had an illness to understand what kind of spread there is in the family, both symptomatic and asymptomatic spread, so there's a number of settings where we're trying to understand really how much infection is around a particular case or an outbreak that we're seeing. This, the ser logic testing is rather complicated. It's not a quick type of test. So those tests are -- those studies are ongoing, but we don't expect to have results in the days ahead. They're something that we're working on quickly, but they won't be results we'll be able to share within the next several days for sure. Our next question, please?
Anne Schuchat: About the serology, right. We are working on serologic assays and we are doing, in the midst of serologic surveys, there's a number of ways that those assays would be evaluated. We're working with Mexico on understanding the, what we call the bottom of the pyramid, people who might have had milder illness are really asymptomatic illness but have been exposed and infected with this virus without actually knowing it. We're doing that in some of the areas here in the U.S. that have been affected.
We've actually got some projects going on in the households where people have had an illness to understand what kind of spread there is in the family, both symptomatic and asymptomatic spread, so there's a number of settings where we're trying to understand really how much infection is around a particular case or an outbreak that we're seeing. This, the ser logic testing is rather complicated. It's not a quick type of test. So those tests are -- those studies are ongoing, but we don't expect to have results in the days ahead. They're something that we're working on quickly, but they won't be results we'll be able to share within the next several days for sure. Our next question, please?