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Cases "moderately severe" in New Zealand

kiwibird

Editor, Senior Moderator
Wellington to beat Melbourne as Australasian swine flu capital
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,25722052-1702,00.html?from=public_rss
By Tamara McLean in Auckland

AAP

July 02, 2009 10:59am




NEW Zealand's capital Wellington is threatening to surpass Melbourne as the swine flu capital of Australasia, an infectious diseases expert says.

Tim Blackmore, a specialist at Wellington Hospital, says while case numbers are higher in Australia, a snapshot in time shows New Zealand is struggling with relatively higher severe cases of H1N1 influenza.

"Melbourne is the swine flu capital of Australia but if you compare hospitalisations for the whole state of Victoria, we're ahead in our comparatively tiny city," Dr Blackmore said.

Victoria, a state of five million, had 18 inpatients last Friday, the same as the Wellington region with just 400,000 residents, but the Kiwi figures have been climbing fast.

Australia's statistics are still more grim, with 4320 cases and nine deaths reported compared to just 700 cases and no deaths in New Zealand. But Dr Blackmore says New Zealand is at an earlier stage in the epidemic's cycle, and the situation is heating up fast.

About 30 people are now in hospital in the Wellington region, one in critical condition, and the hospital is diagnosing 15 cases a day.


Dr Blackmore has predicted at least four in every 10 New Zealanders will get the illness.

"What we're seeing is the tip of the iceberg and it's looking moderately severe to us," he said.


"The hospital services are starting to struggle. We've never seen admission rates like this before and unfortunately it's only going to get worse."

Dr Blackmore said the virus was mild to moderate for most people, but those most at risk, including children and those with respiratory diseases, may need help breathing.

The flu was most prevalent in Maori and Pacific Island communities in Wellington, and appears to have begun in suburbs with damp homes and poorer living conditions.
 
Re: Cases "moderately severe" in New Zealand

"What we're seeing is the tip of the iceberg and it's looking moderately severe to us," he said.

Hmm. First it was "mild," then "moderate." I wonder if "moderately severe" is a slip or an acknowledgment that it is in fact pretty bad.
 
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