Extensive cryptic circulation sustains mpox among men who have sex with men
Posted August 13, 2025.
Joseph Lewnard, Miguel I Paredes, Matan Yechezkel, Gregg S Davis, Vennis Hong, Jessica Skela, Utsav Pandey, Noah T Parker, Lauren C Granskog, Magdalena E Pomichowski, Iris Anne C Reyes, Isabel Rodriguez Barraquer, Nicola F Mueller, Sara Y Tartof
doi:
https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.08.09.25333368
This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should
not be used to guide clinical practice.
Abstract
Sporadic cases of mpox continue among men who have sex with men (MSM), with most lacking identifiable transmission links. To resolve underlying dynamics, we prospectively tested for monkeypox virus (MPXV) in rectal swabs from MSM
in Los Angeles during summer, 2024,
finding that infections exceeded reported mpox cases 33-fold (95% confidence interval: 16-
68). Accounting for under-reporting, incidence rates of MPXV infection were comparable to Neisseria gonorrhoeae and Chlamydia trachomatis among MSM. Independent estimates derived from MPXV phylogenetic reconstruction and a meta-analysis of surveillance studies corroborated this extensive under-reporting. We estimate that undiagnosed infections must cause at least 31-44% of all transmission to explain observed MPXV phylogenies; under realistic modeling assumptions, this proportion rises to 61-94%. Contrary to current guidance, our findings suggest MPXV is prevalent among MSM, predominantly causes subclinical infection, and is sustained in circulation by cryptic transmission.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
Funding Statement
This work was funded by the Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics of the US Centers for Disease Control & Prevention via the Insight Net cooperative agreement (CDC-RFA-FT-23-0069 to SYT and JAL). Its contents are solely the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official views of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
...
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2025.08.09.25333368v1