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British P.M. Puts Pandemic Flu Above Terrorism, Climate on Risk List

Malcolm

Well-known member
http://www.thedailygreen.com/environmental-news/latest/flu-pandemic-47032008

THEDAILYGREEN

3.20.2008 10:26 AM
Is Avian Influenza More Risky Than Global Warming?

British P.M. Puts Pandemic Flu Above Terrorism, Climate on Risk List


British Prime Minister Gordon Brown has a dose of reality, if not good cheer, for the worried citizens of the world: Your worst fears about global warming or Islamo-fascist terrorism are mere whimpers in the night compared to a global flu pandemic.

It is this type of disease outbreak that has Britain most concerned, according to a new national security strategy.

Attention is on the H5N1 avian influenza virus as the agent that could produce a global outbreak, since it is so deadly and could mutate into a form that might be easily transmissible from human to human. Right now it is primarily transferred among birds, occasionally from birds to humans and rarely from human to human. Still, current outbreaks in Indonesia (129 cases, 105 dead), Vietnam (106 cases, 52 dead), and Egypt (47 cases, 20 dead) and China (30 cases, 20 dead) are being tracked closely by the United Nations' World Health Organization.

Avian influenza is an example of an emerging infectious wildlife disease. The field of conservation medicine was organized to address this type of disease which ? like Lyme disease, West Nile virus or a host of other illnesses ? is primarily a wildlife disease, but "jumps the species barrier" and has serious effects on humans. Typically, environmental conditions ? such as the eating of bushmeat or proximity of homes to caged flocks of birds ? contribute to the spread or development of new and re-emergent pathogens.

It may not be H5N1 that spreads through the world, but experts agree that the prospect of a pandemic flu is more a question of when, not if.

Still, the British security report acknowledged that climate change is likely to become a huge security challenge, particularly as extreme weather events force mass migrations of people from vulnerable areas to more stable areas, exacerbating existing political problems or creating new violent tensions.

Find this article at: http://www.thedailygreen.com/environmental-news/latest/flu-pandemic-47032008
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Re: British P.M. Puts Pandemic Flu Above Terrorism, Climate on Risk List

I think, the press statements were highly misleading
wrt. perception of the pandemic threat by the committee.
I couldn't quite verify those headlines, nor could I find the
exact Gordon Brown quote.


the report is here (64 pages, .pdf) :
http://interactive.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/documents/security/national_security_strategy.pdf

much effort was put (as usually) into detracting from the
probability estimates, risk statements
and making many words without clear content.

as threats were distinguished:

1) terrorism
2) nukes and other WMDs
3) trans-national organised crime
4) global instability and conflict, and failed and fragile states
5) civil emergencies
6) state-led threats to the UK
7) climate change
8) competition for energy
9) poverty inequality and poor governance


conclusions:

1) terrorism does not amount to a strategic threat
2) no state currently has both the intent and the capability
to pose a direct nuclear threat to the UK
chemical and biological weapons do not pose a direct threat to the UK
3) transnational organised crime is not the pervasive threat
which it is in some parts of the world
4) no clear risk statement
5) highest risk (among those (?)) is an influenza pandemic...
those phenomena have similar potential to other security challenges
6) no state or alliance have intent and capability to threaten the UK
militarily
7) climate change is potentially the greatest challenge to global
stability and security and therefore to national security.
8) along with climate change and water stress one of the
biggest potential drivers of the breakdown
9) no clear risk statement
 
Re: British P.M. Puts Pandemic Flu Above Terrorism, Climate on Risk List

The headline was drawn from the PMs speech to parliament, whilst this report was presented to MPs.

My reading of this is that the government is recognising what the US has long been aware of - that in the event of a civil emergency such as a pandemic, Government cannot address all the needs of the populace nor address all the problems that will arise. As such, the focus will now be on getting local communities and individual families and buisnesses to prepare.

In my view, this is to be strongly welcomed, and my hope is that the issues that a pandemic will present - beyond the immediate issues of provision of healthcare etc - will now start to be covered in the MSM and addressed, along with education of the public about what exactly a pandemic is likely to mean to the events of day to day life.

At last, it is a start - and we may now see public announcements with regard to building emergency resilience supplies, within businesses, within homes, and a public call to get people to take action and information sharing to get people to understand the reality of the threat. It has been a long time coming, but I am delighted that it has happened, and moreover, it has been led by the PM.

Now people here in the UK may start to take this seriously. Kudos to Mr. Brown for 'biting the bullet'.
 
Re: British P.M. Puts Pandemic Flu Above Terrorism, Climate on Risk List

It is probable that a statement was included in the press briefing notes - impossible to say either way, without seeing them. However, given that editors have not been interested in running pandemic coverage, it is extremely unlikely that this is a press led story angle.

I will have to read the transcripts to comment further.
 
Re: British P.M. Puts Pandemic Flu Above Terrorism, Climate on Risk List

so, probably just careless reporting, not checking the sources.

Someone probably missed, that panflu was only considered the biggest
threat in that sub-section of the report, quoted out of context
and the entire British press just copied the error...

While Gordon Brown just read from the report in parliament
without own comments about panflu.
Actually, he spent less than a minute on panflu.
Quite unusual if it were indeed considered the biggest threat.
 
Re: British P.M. Puts Pandemic Flu Above Terrorism, Climate on Risk List

Bruce Mann heads up the Cabinet Office in this area, and an interview on the issues can be read here

http://www.homelandsecurityeu.com/currentissue/article.asp?art=271251&issue=219

It is the Cabinet Office who brief and guide the PM and Cabinet on these issues.

The story was reported in The Telegraph, which is a broadsheet and not a tabloid, and as such, tends to verify its facts before printing especially when they are of this nature.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/03/19/nterror619.xml

Will dig some more, but, if this is accurate we can expect to see more comments and discussion in the press in the near future.
 
Re: British P.M. Puts Pandemic Flu Above Terrorism, Climate on Risk List

Beware the pull of the black hole
Peter Preston - The Observer, Sunday March 23 2008 - This article appeared in the Observer on Sunday March 23 2008 on p14 of the Business news & features section. It was last updated at 00:02 on March 23 2008.

First, clear away the detritus. Mr Richard Desmond is Fleet Street's least loved proprietor. No one likes him, though (in common with Millwall FC) he doesn't seem to care. He runs remunerative magazines and TV sex channels - and sometimes pays himself ?40m-plus as a reward. But his Expresses and Stars, supposed tickets to national salience, wallow in perpetually shrinking crisis. February's figures show the Daily Express down 3.28 per cent in a year to a historically paltry 737,000, the Star down 7 per cent, its Sunday stablemate down 4.6 per cent - and the once mighty Sunday Express slumped 17 per cent to 676,000, the lowest of low ebbs.

If, as asserted, the four papers concocted dozens of libellous stories about the McCanns to boost sales, then it appears to have been a dud tactic. And if (excuse number two) they're so devoid of staff that they can only afford to make stuff up, then perhaps Mr D might shave back a tad on personal bonuses. But the main point of current, clamorous complaint lies elsewhere.

The McCann saga isn't fundamentally a tale of scanty resources. A three-ring circus of British journalists - with Huw Edwards as anchor and ringmaster - camped out for it on the Algarve last summer. The more difficult problem is that it's what we may call a black hole yarn: a story that seems to exist in a legal and practical vacuum. Go down the hole and you can invent or distort without apparent fear of correction. Heaven knows, anything goes ....

Try black hole one with Kate and Gerry: you lose your child, you hunt for her, refusing to give up; the press interest is so great you need a press spokesman; but the Portuguese police aren't cutting it, so they get briefed against, then turn to briefing themselves. So the McCanns become formally designated suspects and their team feeds favoured papers - such as the Mirror - while leaving less favoured papers - the Express, say - out of the loop.

Result: an internal world of briefing and counter-briefing that sidelines the rest of the world; and the appearance of a legal limbo. Nods, winks, internet chatter and Lisbon dailies rule the roost. The Desmond Four don't think that they're vulnerable (and nor do lawyers helping other papers). But suddenly the music stops, Portuplod falls silent and a letter from Carter-Ruck arrives. One hole morphs into another.

More black holes? Anything to do with Lady Di (she's dead) or the Royal family (which tends not to sue). You've traditional licence to speculate - though the interminable inquest featuring the abominable Burrell shows the limits to even such a verdant playing field.

Then there's anything, until last week, featuring Sir Paul and Lady Heather because - briefings again - there was so much back-and-forth behind doors that the show seemed to have a life of its own. But now we know that Paul is 'consistent and honest' and that she's 'less than impressive' with a case 'devoid of reality', the name of that game has changed. Only Ms Mills, having not much of a reputation to lose, will find herself in black-hole play.

Anything featuring the European Commission, which may answer back but won't get reported because tame Westminster reporters can mop up Brussels without leaving their desks. Anything on a John Lewis wish list that MPs might fancy, because 'they're all as bad as each other, aren't they?' Anything where spin doctors for the two big parties bash away at each other under cover of darkness. And anything regurgitated by a Desmond paper, because no one is likely to believe it anyway.

Oh, and anything where the subject is recently deceased (ie, beyond litigation). Thus Bill Deedes, late grand old man of the Telegraph, was a 'moral coward' who found it puzzling that others did not share his 'moral cowardice', according to Simon Heffer (in the Telegraph, of course). Turn to Stephen Robinson's new biography of Deedes, though, and you'll find Bill 'delighted' that Heffer was 'eased out of his role as Comment editor' and deploring the tone of Heffer's columns 'which he thought unsuited to a broadsheet newspaper'. But now he's in his grave and can be duly shafted.

Black holes, in short, are morality- and retribution-lite. They are areas where journalists who would normally have to convince their editor and the night lawyer reckon there'll be no comebacks, either in the High Court or via the PCC. They leave traditional definitions of truth on the rim as you plunge right in.

More shocking than in olden days? Remember 'so sorry, Sir Elton' and a ?1m settlement from the Sun? Or than abroad? Frankly, Whitewater and the death of Vince Foster was a grey, grimy hole staining American journalism.

So kick the Expresses and Stars all round the park here, to be sure, but please don't pretend that total purity marches with you every step of the way. Black holes pose the ultimate probity test - and the law of no consequences comes stuffed full of frailty and failure.

Tidal wave of adjectives will drown us all

There you have it, then. An outbreak of bird flu could be the 'greatest challenge facing us since World War Two'. Now that the 'volcano' of 'hocus-pocus' scientific reassurance has 'exploded', and 'the molten lava' of incipient calamity stands revealed, 'many innocent victims are asking, not unreasonably: who's to blame for this disaster?' There is 'mayhem as the panic deepens' and a 'massive loss of confidence' all around us today.


We can't, to be sure, proclaim medical 'meltdown' just yet. 'No cathartic blow-out' has 'cleared the air' of infection. But experts can find at least 'eight reasons why things may get worse' along the road to 'further horror'.

We've already endured 'one of the worst days' in NHS 'history' and 'extraordinary' bouts 'of turmoil' as 'reeling' patients have confronted 'chaos' and 'events race ahead of any rescue plan' while patients suffer. 'Is there any way to halt this slide'? 'How bad will the crisis get' in a land where our leaders are 'pygmies'?

Well, it depends on which crisis you're talking about. Gordon Brown did indeed visualise a pandemic of bird flu last week, and put it at Number One on his tally of threats facing Britain because he said 750,000 could die.

But every volcanic upheaval or panic-stricken response in quotation marks above comes from a random selection of economic and financial commentators describing a troubled week on the markets.

And a gentle, more measured question follows. If the collapse of a single investment bank, and shares going down before they go up again, is enough to trigger such an adjectival apocalypse, what have we got left in reserve when bad gets a little worse? Cue much huffing and puffing over the 'rumour-mongers who tried to bring down one of the UK's biggest banks'.

But cue, too, a need to throttle back on the lexicon of tragedy. Or do we assume that City traders don't read newspapers anyway - and would be too full of superior wisdom to take any notice if they did?

The PCC has right to complain about maths like that, George

The Evening Standard got a dressing down from the Press Complaints Commission last week. Its tale about climate change militants preparing to 'hit Heathrow' with a spate of bomb and other hoaxes disintegrated under sharp scrutiny. Inaccuracy committed, condemnation delivered. Victory for the airport campers and George Monbiot of The Guardian who took up their case.

One inaccuracy doesn't excuse another, though. In their press release hailing triumph, the campers quoted Monbiot (in turn quoting Nick Davies of Flat Earth News fame) saying that the PCC had only 'ruled' in 448 cases, out of 25,500 complaints, in the last 10 years. Pretty derisory, if true: which is the familiar point the Commission's detractors make.

But it isn't remotely true, because every year many hundreds of rulings aren't published. Some complainants request privacy; other rulings are just routine. In 2007, for example, the PCC received 4,320 complaints and ruled on 1,227 of them. Some 56 per cent of complaints put down on paper or screen were formally considered - and those discounted were either the business of other regulators (such as the Advertising Standards Authority) or not covered by the Commission's published code.

The chairman of the PCC calls the 448 figure a 'schoolboy howler' and wants the record put straight, which seems a fair enough request (if Monbiot and co can't get those simple figures right, how on earth can they cope with the sums of global warming?). But where does he go to get a correction? No, don't say the PCC ....

-
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2008/mar/23/pressandpublishing
------
 
Re: British P.M. Puts Pandemic Flu Above Terrorism, Climate on Risk List

the Bruce-Mann interview is interesting, seems that he ranked the 3 top threats
with panflu being #1


now, I just wanted to reply to the other post, but it disappeared...
it said that Gordon Brown last week mentioned, that 750000 Brits _could_
die in a pandemic and then the reporter _concluded_ that Gordon Brown
considers panflu the biggest threat.
But it depends, how likely this "could" is being considered.
Remember Webster saying in 2006, half of mankind _could_ die



see also this thread:

http://www.singtomeohmuse.com/viewtopic.php?t=2355&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0

let's merge the forums


--------------------------------

I found it here:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2008/mar/23/pressandpublishing
> Gordon Brown did indeed visualise a pandemic of bird flu last week, and put
> it at Number One on his tally of threats facing Britain because he said 750,000 could die

---------------------------------

...but then:
> British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said Wednesday that climate change and pandemic
> disease threaten international security as much as terrorism

"only" "as much as"
still much more time spent in parliament with talking about terrorism.
Is panflu somehow taboo to be talked about for PMs ?

------------------------------------

more:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7305746.stm
> When I asked officials at the Cabinet Office how they calculated it, I was told it was
> based on a formula described as "impact time probability".
> What is "impact"? Lives lost? Or money lost? In part, came the reply, it is "what spooks people".


The Independant got it right, separating the risks by categories
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-first-national-security-strategy-798385.html
with panflu only being highest among civil emergencies

http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/martin_kettle/2008/03/threat_fret.html
>According to the PM, the nature of the threats to national security has
> "changed beyond recognition" in recent decades, confounding "all the old assumptions about
> national defence and international security". Today's threats no longer come from hostile
> nation states, as they did from the middle ages until the end of the cold war.
> Today's threats come from international terrorism, crime, energy shortage,
> climate change and pandemics.

hmm, pandemics only 5th in this list
 
Re: British P.M. Puts Pandemic Flu Above Terrorism, Climate on Risk List

they have ranked the risks for UK now.
See the picture on page 5 here:

http://www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/~/m...risk_register/national_risk_register pdf.ashx


panflu is the top-risk for UK
(although they are one of the best prepared countries,
maybe even _the_ best)


but I remember in the risk-debate in parliament some months ago,
they talked much about terrorism (more than 50%) and very little
about pandemic (less than 10%)
 
Re: British P.M. Puts Pandemic Flu Above Terrorism, Climate on Risk List

Pandemic's Impact Top Threat, UK, Others Say
by Anthony L. Kimery
Tuesday, 12 August 2008
[snips]

The United Nations High-Level Threat Panel also determined that of the ten top high-level threats to humanity, infectious diseases is the second most worrisome threat.

?The use of the disease as a new asymmetric tactic would make explosives seem primitive,? Steele says. ?Walking the path to martyrdom through densely populated cities infected with a well-chosen disease, a ?dead man walking could bring havoc ? and fear.?

HSToday.us has reported on counterterrorists? concerns that terrorist groups have considered the use of ?bio-martyrs? to spread highly contagious diseases, including the strain of pandemic influenza when it finally erupts.

Steele also warns of "bio-martys" who've been infected with some hybrid, designer virus, a potetial threat that also isn'st so far-fetched - the March, 2007 HSToday cover report, "Viral Visions," examined this possibility.

But as Steele pointed out, ?if the terrorists don?t do it, diseases assisted only by ignorance and negligence may get there first ??

http://hstoday.us/content/view/4676/149/
 
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