Attempting to predict the fate of an ongoing epidemic. Lessons from A(H1N1) influenza in USA

[tetano]

Stud Health Technol Inform. 2010;160:447-51.
Attempting to predict the fate of an ongoing epidemic. Lessons from A(H1N1) influenza in USA.

Luis J, C?ceres H.

Center for Cybernetics Applications to Medicine, Havana Higher Institute of Medical Sciences, Cubanacan, Playa, Ciudad de La Habana, Cuba.
Abstract

A simple method is proposed for predicting the fate of an epidemic outburst from early data. The method is based on the Richards model, and linearizations are proposed for obtaining preliminary values. A second step with nonlinear estimation fed with preliminary values as initial guess values may be attempted if field conditions allow the computation. The method was tested on data from 2001 dengue outbursts in both Havana and Winward Islands (French Polynesia). Predictions were satisfactory and an attempt of true prediction based on daily data for the 2009 H1N1 influenza outburst in the USA was undertaken. Comparison of early predictions with actual values obtained 3 months later suggests that some of the discrepancies are not due to method's inacuracy, but to real improvement of infection rate as the H1N1 outburst proceeded. The method can be applied in any setting where cumulative number of cases is properly recorded.

PMID: 20841726 [PubMed - in process]

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20841726

 

[Laidback Al]

Re: Attempting to predict the fate of an ongoing epidemic. Lessons from A(H1N1) influenza in USA

A paper with the same title, but different data, was published in the Electronic Journal of Biomedicine last year.

ATTEMPTING TO PREDICT THE FATE
OF AN ONGOING EPIDEMIC.
LESSONS FROM A(H1N1) INFLUENZA IN USA.

Jos? Luis Hern?ndez C?ceres, Karel Vazquez Argote¹,
Reyder Risco Soria, Miguel Mart?n Mart?nez

Center for Cybernetics Applications to Medicine, Havana Higher Institute of Medical Sciences. Ciudad de La Habana.
¹Direcci?n Provincial de Salud. Victoria de Las Tunas.
Cuba.

cacerjlh @ infomed.sld.cu

Rev Electron Biomed / Electron J Biomed 2009;2:38-48

SUMMARY:
An attempt is made to estimate the main parameters of the 2009 Influenza type A(H1N1) outburst in USA based on public information provided by Centers for Disease Control (CDC) during the early stage of the epidemic. Given the ill-posed nature of the statistical problem, a nonlinear fuction estimation method (Gauss-Newton and Hooke Jeeves) was combined with linearization procedures that allowed to set adequate initial guess values for estimation.
Based on data until May 13^th, 2009, the following values are predicted for the USA outbreak: Tau (time to the peak of incidence) 32 days; R₀ (number of secondary infections per infected individual) 1.7; K (total number of cases) 20000(15000-35000). These results are in good agreement with the values reported by the WHO's Rapid Assessment Team for the outburst in Mexico. The method can be applied in any setting where cumulative number of cases are properly recorded.​

Full article available at: http://biomed.uninet.edu/2009/n2/caceres.html

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