TheFluMaster
Resident
Az counties not ready for a flu pandemic
By PAUL DAVENPORT
Published: 11.20.2006
A state public health official doesn't mince words regarding readiness for a flu pandemic and the possible human devastation that it would bring.
Dr. Bob England said he thinks he scares "the hell out of a lot of people" when he makes presentations to community groups.
"It's an overwhelming set of issues to deal with here, and we've come a long ways in terms of recognizing our issues, doing some planning, setting up some initial processes and procedures, but honestly we have a very long way to go," said England, head of the Maricopa County Public Health Department.
The virulent H5N1 strain of bird flu has killed 153 people worldwide, mostly in Asia, according to figures compiled by the World Health Organization.
Most of the human deaths from bird flu have been linked to close contact with infected birds, but experts fear the virus could mutate into a form easily spread from person to person and spark a worldwide pandemic that could kill thousands or even millions of people.
In Maricopa County, plans are incomplete, and even the plan segments already written must be considered drafts because of the many unknowns.
Maricopa County's situation isn't unique among Arizona's 15 counties, whose readiness varies widely, but it is one of the most daunting because of the county's population of 3.6 million, said Will Humble, a deputy assistant director of the state Department of Health Services who oversees public health preparedness statewide.
Earlier this year, the state completed a sweeping revision of its pandemic readiness plan, and Humble said efforts are now focused on the county level.
Because the Phoenix metropolitan area's hospitals and clinics typically are jammed during regular cold and flu season, the situation would worsen during a pandemic because sick people - even some with regular flu - would be scared and go to the health facilities, England said.
"We have to set up some kind of system for checking on folks (at home by telephone) and weeding out the people who really need to come in," he said.
And quality of care for those who do need treatment would require compromises, such as having relatives use handheld bags to ventilate people because there wouldn't be enough ventilator machines, England said.
The county has identified 100 sites for mass vaccinations but not the 20,000 or so people to staff those sites in 12-hour shifts.
Statewide, Humble said current efforts include trying to get the word out on the need for individuals, schools, businesses, churches and other organizations to begin their own planning, and England said he alone makes a half-dozen presentations a week.
"In a case of a pandemic, one of the big issues isn't going to be related to health care per se," England said. "It's going to be: How do you keep society functioning with a very large absenteeism rate and a lot of people perhaps afraid of going to work? How do you keep the groceries getting delivered? How do you keep the gasoline delivered? How do you keep the lights on?"
It doesn't help that nobody can say whether and when a pandemic will hit and, if it does, whether it'll be horrendous or somewhat mild because the strain's virulence could diminish or even worsen if it mutates to be transmittable from human to human.
http://www.tucsoncitizen.com/daily/local/33159.php
By PAUL DAVENPORT
Published: 11.20.2006
A state public health official doesn't mince words regarding readiness for a flu pandemic and the possible human devastation that it would bring.
Dr. Bob England said he thinks he scares "the hell out of a lot of people" when he makes presentations to community groups.
"It's an overwhelming set of issues to deal with here, and we've come a long ways in terms of recognizing our issues, doing some planning, setting up some initial processes and procedures, but honestly we have a very long way to go," said England, head of the Maricopa County Public Health Department.
The virulent H5N1 strain of bird flu has killed 153 people worldwide, mostly in Asia, according to figures compiled by the World Health Organization.
Most of the human deaths from bird flu have been linked to close contact with infected birds, but experts fear the virus could mutate into a form easily spread from person to person and spark a worldwide pandemic that could kill thousands or even millions of people.
In Maricopa County, plans are incomplete, and even the plan segments already written must be considered drafts because of the many unknowns.
Maricopa County's situation isn't unique among Arizona's 15 counties, whose readiness varies widely, but it is one of the most daunting because of the county's population of 3.6 million, said Will Humble, a deputy assistant director of the state Department of Health Services who oversees public health preparedness statewide.
Earlier this year, the state completed a sweeping revision of its pandemic readiness plan, and Humble said efforts are now focused on the county level.
Because the Phoenix metropolitan area's hospitals and clinics typically are jammed during regular cold and flu season, the situation would worsen during a pandemic because sick people - even some with regular flu - would be scared and go to the health facilities, England said.
"We have to set up some kind of system for checking on folks (at home by telephone) and weeding out the people who really need to come in," he said.
And quality of care for those who do need treatment would require compromises, such as having relatives use handheld bags to ventilate people because there wouldn't be enough ventilator machines, England said.
The county has identified 100 sites for mass vaccinations but not the 20,000 or so people to staff those sites in 12-hour shifts.
Statewide, Humble said current efforts include trying to get the word out on the need for individuals, schools, businesses, churches and other organizations to begin their own planning, and England said he alone makes a half-dozen presentations a week.
"In a case of a pandemic, one of the big issues isn't going to be related to health care per se," England said. "It's going to be: How do you keep society functioning with a very large absenteeism rate and a lot of people perhaps afraid of going to work? How do you keep the groceries getting delivered? How do you keep the gasoline delivered? How do you keep the lights on?"
It doesn't help that nobody can say whether and when a pandemic will hit and, if it does, whether it'll be horrendous or somewhat mild because the strain's virulence could diminish or even worsen if it mutates to be transmittable from human to human.
http://www.tucsoncitizen.com/daily/local/33159.php