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http://www.macdoctor.co.nz/2009/07/12/swine-flu-update-18/
Swine Flu Update 18
July 12th, 2009 | Posted in Contagions, Infectious Diseases
Virologists are now saying that Swine Flu has rapidly become the dominant strain of seasonal flu. The reason is simple. The new influenza is extremely infectious because few people under the age of fifty have any sort of cross immunity against it (those who caught the 1975 swine flu have a small amount of cross immunity, probably the reason why Swine Flu appears to spare older people, unlike standard flu). Since it spreads very much faster that the ordinary seasonal flu, it has taken over as the dominant strain. ESR is reporting that about 75% of the flus in the community are Swine Flu.
We should all be very thankful that, for the vast majority of us, Swine flu will be a fairly mild illness, milder than most seasonal flus.
Most practices are reporting about three times as much flu as is normal for this time of year and, as I have mentioned in my previous update, this is not entirely bad news, indicating as it does that the disease is quite mild. Our stats currently indicate about a 10% admission rate with about 2% critically ill, which is identical to the US, but, as I have also commented in my last update, most cases being swabbed to confirm the disease are either quite ill, or at risk of becoming ill, so this is not a good indication of the severity of the disease at all.
What this means, in practical terms is that:
1. The current flu vaccine is almost completely useless. I would certainly not be rushing to get your free shot if you haven?t had one yet.
2. If you have a flu-like illness (temperature above 38 degrees, a sore throat and/or cough) the chances are high that you have swine flu. Unless you are experiencing shortness of breath, a fast heart rate or dizziness, or you have risk factors for severe disease (pregnancy, severe asthma, heart disease or morbid obesity), you probably should hibernate at home until your symptoms subside.
3. Attempts by the hospitals to limit the spread of this are almost certainly futile. Limiting the number of visitors is a waste of time. It will only take one visitor stupid enough to come visiting with an active flu to infect the entire ward.
4. Public health should now give some thought to removing restrictions on Tamiflu in private practice as most flu-like illnesses will be H1N1 and sensitive. There is an adequate supply in the public hospitals for the sicker patients and use of the drug should not encourage resistance. Restrictions should only be continued if it is still realistic to expect a shortage.
The MacDoctor now suspects he has just had the silly disease. Tamiflu did, in fact, shorten the course of the disease, but was not exactly a ?cure?.
Swine Flu Update 18
July 12th, 2009 | Posted in Contagions, Infectious Diseases
Virologists are now saying that Swine Flu has rapidly become the dominant strain of seasonal flu. The reason is simple. The new influenza is extremely infectious because few people under the age of fifty have any sort of cross immunity against it (those who caught the 1975 swine flu have a small amount of cross immunity, probably the reason why Swine Flu appears to spare older people, unlike standard flu). Since it spreads very much faster that the ordinary seasonal flu, it has taken over as the dominant strain. ESR is reporting that about 75% of the flus in the community are Swine Flu.
We should all be very thankful that, for the vast majority of us, Swine flu will be a fairly mild illness, milder than most seasonal flus.
Most practices are reporting about three times as much flu as is normal for this time of year and, as I have mentioned in my previous update, this is not entirely bad news, indicating as it does that the disease is quite mild. Our stats currently indicate about a 10% admission rate with about 2% critically ill, which is identical to the US, but, as I have also commented in my last update, most cases being swabbed to confirm the disease are either quite ill, or at risk of becoming ill, so this is not a good indication of the severity of the disease at all.
What this means, in practical terms is that:
1. The current flu vaccine is almost completely useless. I would certainly not be rushing to get your free shot if you haven?t had one yet.
2. If you have a flu-like illness (temperature above 38 degrees, a sore throat and/or cough) the chances are high that you have swine flu. Unless you are experiencing shortness of breath, a fast heart rate or dizziness, or you have risk factors for severe disease (pregnancy, severe asthma, heart disease or morbid obesity), you probably should hibernate at home until your symptoms subside.
3. Attempts by the hospitals to limit the spread of this are almost certainly futile. Limiting the number of visitors is a waste of time. It will only take one visitor stupid enough to come visiting with an active flu to infect the entire ward.
4. Public health should now give some thought to removing restrictions on Tamiflu in private practice as most flu-like illnesses will be H1N1 and sensitive. There is an adequate supply in the public hospitals for the sicker patients and use of the drug should not encourage resistance. Restrictions should only be continued if it is still realistic to expect a shortage.
The MacDoctor now suspects he has just had the silly disease. Tamiflu did, in fact, shorten the course of the disease, but was not exactly a ?cure?.