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American Journal of Epidemiology 2006 163(2):181-187; doi:10.1093/aje/kwj024
Mortality due to Influenza in the United States?An Annualized Regression Approach Using Multiple-Cause Mortality Data
<nobr>Jonathan Dushoff</nobr>, <nobr>Joshua B. Plotkin</nobr>, <nobr>Cecile Viboud</nobr>, <nobr>David J. D. Earn</nobr> and <nobr>Lone Simonsen</nobr>
Abstract
Influenza is an important cause of mortality in temperate countries,<sup> </sup>but there is substantial controversy as to the total direct<sup> </sup>and indirect mortality burden imposed by influenza viruses.<sup> </sup>The authors have extracted multiple-cause death data from public-use<sup> </sup>data files for the United States from 1979 to 2001. The current<sup> </sup>research reevaluates attribution of deaths to influenza, by<sup> </sup>use of an annualized regression approach: comparing measures<sup> </sup>of excess deaths with measures of influenza virus prevalence<sup> </sup>by subtype over entire influenza seasons and attributing deaths<sup> </sup>to influenza by a regression model. This approach is more conservative<sup> </sup>in its assumptions than is earlier work, which used weekly regression<sup> </sup>models, or models based on fitting baselines, but it produces<sup> </sup>results consistent with these other methods, supporting the<sup> </sup>conclusion that influenza is an important cause of seasonal<sup> </sup>excess deaths. The regression model attributes an annual average<sup> </sup>of 41,400 (95% confidence interval: 27,100, 55,700) deaths to<sup> </sup>influenza over the period 1979?2001. The study also uses<sup> </sup>regional death data to investigate the effects of cold weather<sup> </sup>on annualized excess deaths.
full article at: http://aje.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/full/163/2/181
Mortality due to Influenza in the United States?An Annualized Regression Approach Using Multiple-Cause Mortality Data
<nobr>Jonathan Dushoff</nobr>, <nobr>Joshua B. Plotkin</nobr>, <nobr>Cecile Viboud</nobr>, <nobr>David J. D. Earn</nobr> and <nobr>Lone Simonsen</nobr>
Abstract
Influenza is an important cause of mortality in temperate countries,<sup> </sup>but there is substantial controversy as to the total direct<sup> </sup>and indirect mortality burden imposed by influenza viruses.<sup> </sup>The authors have extracted multiple-cause death data from public-use<sup> </sup>data files for the United States from 1979 to 2001. The current<sup> </sup>research reevaluates attribution of deaths to influenza, by<sup> </sup>use of an annualized regression approach: comparing measures<sup> </sup>of excess deaths with measures of influenza virus prevalence<sup> </sup>by subtype over entire influenza seasons and attributing deaths<sup> </sup>to influenza by a regression model. This approach is more conservative<sup> </sup>in its assumptions than is earlier work, which used weekly regression<sup> </sup>models, or models based on fitting baselines, but it produces<sup> </sup>results consistent with these other methods, supporting the<sup> </sup>conclusion that influenza is an important cause of seasonal<sup> </sup>excess deaths. The regression model attributes an annual average<sup> </sup>of 41,400 (95% confidence interval: 27,100, 55,700) deaths to<sup> </sup>influenza over the period 1979?2001. The study also uses<sup> </sup>regional death data to investigate the effects of cold weather<sup> </sup>on annualized excess deaths.
full article at: http://aje.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/full/163/2/181