All,
I am sure many of you are familiar with this article. I am interested in your thoughts reference the estimates based on these adjusted numbers. I am not a number cruncher, but I think the 1.31 multiplier seems to be a conservative number and consistent with the "over 100,000 cases" estimate by the CDC.
FRIDAY, May 15 (HealthDay News) -- While the official tally of confirmed U.S. swine flu cases topped 4,700 on Friday, experts at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention now estimate the true number of infections at more than 100,000 nationwide.
http://www.mlive.com/newsflash/heal...ional-3/1242471970306580.xml&storylist=health
US/Global TRACKING H1N1 CASES ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
Summary:
United States
May 15th, 2009 CDC Reports Number of H1N1 Cases in US actually over 100,000
Date/BBC Reported/CDC Reported/Adjusted Daily Number/ Adjusted on 1.31 Growth Rate
May15/4298/4715*/ 100,050**/ 102,218**Total Cases
22 x Under Reported
Global
Date/ /BBC Reported /Adjusted Number at 1.31 Growth Rate
May 15 7917 /364767
46 x under Reported
* An original estimate for infection spread was 1.82 and current analysis estimates maybe around 1.31
* Early information indicated H1N1 Attack Rates of 40-50% were somewhat accurate
* Earliest peer reviewed study* indicates H1N1 Attack Rates of 22-33% in non-typical groups and as high as 75-100% in typical groups
* Those with a professional interest can refer to the H1N1 World News Updates below
* = Study: http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/1176062
The CDC added just 18 new cases to its official list on Thursday, and its acting director said it may stop doing confirmatory testing as the virus becomes more common in a community. "We may move away from case updates," Dr. Richard Besser said. "The numbers become a little murkier, and we'll focus more on where things are occurring and what that tells us about the spread of infection." The public may be surprised to know it's not so important to have an exact tally, or to tell a person whether he or she has the germ, said Sharon Shea. She is director of infectious disease programs at the Association of Public Health Laboratories, the network of labs that work with CDC.
http://www.kpho.com/health/19336823/detail.html
I am sure many of you are familiar with this article. I am interested in your thoughts reference the estimates based on these adjusted numbers. I am not a number cruncher, but I think the 1.31 multiplier seems to be a conservative number and consistent with the "over 100,000 cases" estimate by the CDC.
FRIDAY, May 15 (HealthDay News) -- While the official tally of confirmed U.S. swine flu cases topped 4,700 on Friday, experts at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention now estimate the true number of infections at more than 100,000 nationwide.
http://www.mlive.com/newsflash/heal...ional-3/1242471970306580.xml&storylist=health
US/Global TRACKING H1N1 CASES ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
Summary:
United States
May 15th, 2009 CDC Reports Number of H1N1 Cases in US actually over 100,000
Date/BBC Reported/CDC Reported/Adjusted Daily Number/ Adjusted on 1.31 Growth Rate
May15/4298/4715*/ 100,050**/ 102,218**Total Cases
22 x Under Reported
Global
Date/ /BBC Reported /Adjusted Number at 1.31 Growth Rate
May 15 7917 /364767
46 x under Reported
* An original estimate for infection spread was 1.82 and current analysis estimates maybe around 1.31
* Early information indicated H1N1 Attack Rates of 40-50% were somewhat accurate
* Earliest peer reviewed study* indicates H1N1 Attack Rates of 22-33% in non-typical groups and as high as 75-100% in typical groups
* Those with a professional interest can refer to the H1N1 World News Updates below
* = Study: http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/1176062
The CDC added just 18 new cases to its official list on Thursday, and its acting director said it may stop doing confirmatory testing as the virus becomes more common in a community. "We may move away from case updates," Dr. Richard Besser said. "The numbers become a little murkier, and we'll focus more on where things are occurring and what that tells us about the spread of infection." The public may be surprised to know it's not so important to have an exact tally, or to tell a person whether he or she has the germ, said Sharon Shea. She is director of infectious disease programs at the Association of Public Health Laboratories, the network of labs that work with CDC.
http://www.kpho.com/health/19336823/detail.html
