Aboriginal Manitobans have an H1N1 case rate six times higher than non-aboriginals

[Quiplash]

The following excellent chart is courtesy of Bluewillow over at the curevents.org (thisbluemarble.com) forums, in the Manitoba Microcosm discussion thread:

Okay, so given we now know what percentage of Manitoba's population is aboriginal,
plus the facts that half of all H1N1 cases are aboriginal, and two thirds of all ventilator cases are aboriginal (the last two facts courtesy of today's Winnipeg Free Press)...

...we can do some rough calculations of the case rate between Manitoba's aboriginal and non-aboriginal populations (FINALLY)

Manitoba's aboriginal population is 14.0% of 1,213,815 people = 169,934 aboriginals
Which leaves 1,213,815 - 169,934 = 1,043,881 non-aboriginals in Manitoba

Given half of the confirmed H1N1 cases are aboriginal, 517 * 0.5 = 258.5 H1N1 cases in the aboriginal population, and 258.5 cases in the non-aboriginal population

258.5 / 169,934 works out to 151.9 cases per 100,000 for Manitoba's aboriginal population, compared to:

258.5 / 1,043,881 works out to 24.7 cases per 100,000 for Manitoba's NON-aboriginal population.

Manitoba's aboriginal population has an H1N1 case rate SIX TIMES HIGHER than Manitoba's non-aboriginal population.

 

[Quiplash]

Re: Aboriginal Manitobans have an H1N1 case rate six times higher than non-aboriginals

From the CBC we know:

"Since the province's first H1N1 case was announced in early May, 49 patients have been admitted to intensive care units. Of those, 21 have been confirmed to have H1N1. The others are suspected cases that have not yet met current national definitions of what constitutes swine flu, the news release stated."

Source: http://www.cbc.ca/health/story/2009/06/24/mb-swine-flu-manitoba-458.html

So, let's do some more calculations based on case rates of ventilator usage for both aboriginal and non-aboriginal populations in Manitoba.

Manitoba's aboriginal population is 14.0% of 1,213,815 people = 169,934 aboriginals
Which leaves 1,213,815 - 169,934 = 1,043,881 non-aboriginals in Manitoba

Given that two thirds of the ventilator cases are aboriginal, 49 * 0.67 = 32.6 ventilator cases in the aboriginal population, and 49 - 32.6 = 16.3 cases in the non-aboriginal population

32.6 / 169,934 works out to 19.2 ventilator cases per 100,000 for Manitoba's aboriginal population, compared to:

16.3 / 1,043,881 works out to 1.6 ventilator cases per 100,000 for Manitoba's NON-aboriginal population.

Manitoba's aboriginal population has a ventilator case rate TWELVE TIMES HIGHER than Manitoba's non-aboriginal population. If you equate a ventilator case with a critically ill H1N1 case (even though not all the ventilator cases have been confirmed as H1N1 swine flu), this means that a member of Manitoba's aboriginal population is 12 times more likely to become critically ill than a non-aboriginal living in Manitoba.

Small wonder the Manitoba First Nations chiefs have called a state of emergency. They are, proportionally speaking, getting whalloped by the H1N1 swine flu virus.