A simulation model for policy decision analysis: a case of pandemic influenza on a university campus

[tetano]

J Simul. 2011;5(2):89-100. doi: 10.1057/jos.2010.6. Epub 2010 Apr 16.
A simulation model for policy decision analysis: a case of pandemic influenza on a university campus.


Araz OM[SUP]1,[/SUP][SUP]2[/SUP], Lant T[SUP]1,[/SUP][SUP]2,[/SUP][SUP]3[/SUP], Fowler JW[SUP]1[/SUP], Jehn M[SUP]4[/SUP].

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Abstract

Pandemic influenza preparedness plans strongly focus on efficient mitigation strategies including social distancing, logistics and medical response. These strategies are formed by multiple decision makers before a pandemic outbreak and during the pandemic in local communities, states and nation-wide. In this paper, we model the spread of pandemic influenza in a local community, a university, and evaluate the mitigation policies. Since the development of an appropriate vaccine requires a significant amount of time and available antiviral quantities can only cover a relatively small proportion of the population, university decision makers will first focus on non-pharmaceutical interventions. These interventions include social distancing and isolation. The disease spread is modelled as differential equations-based compartmental model. The system is simulated for multiple non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing including suspending university operations, evacuating dorms and isolation of infected individuals on campus. Although the model is built based on the preparedness plan of one of the biggest universities in the world, Arizona State University, it can easily be generalized for other colleges and universities. The policies and the decisions are tested by several simulation runs and evaluations of the mitigation strategies are presented in the paper.
? Operational Research Society 2010.



KEYWORDS:

epidemiology; pandemic influenza; sensitivity analysis; simulation


PMID:32226475PMCID:PMC7099900DOI:10.1057/jos.2010.6
Free PMC Article

 

[tetano]

J Simul. 2010;4(1):68-80. doi: 10.1057/jos.2009.13. Epub 2010 Mar 17.
Simulations for epidemiology and public health education.


Huang CY[SUP]1[/SUP], Tsai YS[SUP]2[/SUP], Wen TH[SUP]3[/SUP].

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Abstract

Recent and potential outbreaks of infectious diseases are triggering interest in predicting epidemic dynamics on a national scale and testing the efficacies of different combinations of public health policies. Network-based simulations are proving their worth as tools for addressing epidemiology and public health issues considered too complex for field investigations and questionnaire analyses. Universities and research centres are therefore using network-based simulations as teaching tools for epidemiology and public health education students, but instructors are discovering that constructing appropriate network models and epidemic simulations are difficult tasks in terms of individual movement and contact patterns. In this paper we will describe (a) a four-category framework (based on demographic and geographic properties) to discuss ways of applying network-based simulation approaches to undergraduate students and novice researchers; (b) our experiences simulating the transmission dynamics of two infectious disease scenarios in Taiwan (HIV and influenza); (c) evaluation results indicating significant improvement in student knowledge of epidemic transmission dynamics and the efficacies of various public health policy suites; and (d) a geospatial modelling approach that integrates a national commuting network as well as multi-scale contact structures.
? Operational Research Society 2010.



KEYWORDS:

HIV; epidemic dynamics; network-based simulation; public health policy; seasonal influenza


PMID:32226474PMCID:PMC7099701DOI:10.1057/jos.2009.13
Free PMC Article