A New Type of Infectious Outbreak?
SMU Medical Journal, Volume ? 2, No. 1, January 2015
Rodney P Jones
Healthcare Analysis and Forecasting
Camberley, England GU15 1RQ
[Email and phone at link]
Manuscript received: 05.11.2014
Manuscript accepted: 26.11.2014
Abstract
In the UK, hospital medical admissions have been rising for many years. Many explanations have been offered but none adequately explain why the increase appears to occur in bursts. However during these bursts both medical admissions and all-cause mortality appear to rise and fall in a synchronous manner.
This study looks at the trend in age-standardized mortality in Scotland for women between 1994 and 2013, and male and female mortality for diseases of the circulatory system in 2012 and 2013 versus 2011 in England and Wales.
A steady downward trend in the mortality rate is observed with higher than expected mortality in the years 1995, 1999, 2002/2003, 2007/2008 and 2012/2013. Similar findings have been reported in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. In England and Wales mortality due to circulatory system diseases showed age-dependent patterns similar to the saw tooth patterns observed in ‘antigenic original sin’, which suggests the different strains of the same agent are involved.
A new type of infectious outbreak appears to be implicated with a broad-based effect against all-
cause mortality and increased admissions for a wide range of medical conditions.
Keywords: Emerging infectious outbreaks, all-cause mortality, immune impairment, cytomegalovirus, medical admissions, gender.
