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50 Case 4.5%/Day Increase Doubles Montserrado in 16 Days

F

franzpick

Well-known member
Sep. 15-17 Montserrado new cases of 53, 42 and 53 are 200% of the daily new case average for Sep. 1-16, and are now increasing each day's total by 4.5% per DAY, which is the fastest infection growth in any area of the 3 countries, and doubles the county's 9/17 total of 1154 cases in just 16 more days.

If this runaway daily increase gets into Monrovia's 1 million population, or is there now already, it will soon be beyond the most heroic isolation control and treatment capabilities of the WHO-MSF-CDC-national ministries of health and other major contributors.
 
Re: 50 Case 4.5%/Day Increase Doubles Montserrado in 16 Days

Can you provide a link to the source data please? It makes for a more complete reading. Thanks!
 
Re: 50 Case 4.5%/Day Increase Doubles Montserrado in 16 Days

Of course. The data is in my growing database for daily case, death and county totals taken from the 3 country ministries of health daily reports from mid-August on. I could place the database on DropBox but its size and complexity would make it difficult to loc?te and interpret the specific data referred to.

The 3 day case and cumulative case data for the 4.5% day Montserrado growth calculation in my above post are all available in the Liberian MOHsw daily reports for Step. 15, 16 and 17.

When I can present a Table I will, with references to the MOH source data.
 
Re: 50 Case 4.5%/Day Increase Doubles Montserrado in 16 Days

Here is Liberia's Sep.17 case report table showing 53 cases (38 suspected, 15 probable) in the right side Montserrado column, with the total cases of 1154 at the bottom:

http://www.mohsw.gov.lr/documents/Liberia%20Ebola%20SitRep%20125%20Sept%2017,%202014.pdf

The actual % case gain for 9/17 would be 53/1101, the previous day 9/16 total cases, or a 4.8% case increase for 9/17:

('Manage Attachments' indicates my photo file is attached, but preview doesn't show it).
P1000080mont.webp
 
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Re: 50 Case 4.5%/Day Increase Doubles Montserrado in 16 Days

Monrovia reported its first case in June. Monrovia is about 90% of Montserrado total population.
 
Re: 50 Case 4.5%/Day Increase Doubles Montserrado in 16 Days

Excuse me if I have missed some footnote or explanation.

Today's Liberian reports for 9/19-21 show a promising decline in the previously high daily new case numbers for Montserrado County, which numbers were compounding total cases at 4.5%/day over 9/15-17, and would have doubled the 9/17 case total of 1154 every 16 days: the infection rate for the last 4 days thru 9/21 appears to be only 20 reported new cases/day (down from 50/day) compounding the current Montserrado total of 1232 at only 2.2%/day, and perhaps a runaway outbreak into Monrovia's 1.2 million close-contact urban population has been slowed. The sudden reduction however from the previous 10 day average new daily case rate of 50/day, to suddenly only 20/day over 4 days to 9/21, is unrealistic, and points to missing data and other unexplained details.

WHO's needless reporting errors, omissions and delays have spread to today's Liberia MOHsw report for the past 4 days, which OMITS data for 9/18 altogether, presents only 3 days data, of which the 9/20 data numbers are LOWER than the 9/19 numbers. Reconstructing these incomplete and out-of-place data points takes time, but usually the database forces some realistic reorganization that reveals a more likely data placement and consistent view of the levels and growth rate trends of the EVD infection.

The Lib MOH "9/20 report #128" numbers are LOWER THAN data numbers for 9/19, and HIGHER THAN data for the 9/17 report, so it may fit the database as actually the data for the missing 9/18 data, which then leaves NO DATA for 9/20.

Then looking at the difference between the 9/21 totals and the 9/19 numbers as 2 days of numbers, as I've had to do before with WHO and other national MOH MISSING days, gives an indication of whether or not the last totals given are realistic 2-day amounts, or represent missing days, data and understatement.
 
Re: 50 Case 4.5%/Day Increase Doubles Montserrado in 16 Days

The 10 day average of all-Liberia new daily case numbers from 9/8 to 9/17 was 80 new cases/day, and the average of the last 5 days to 9/17 was 83 cases/day, showing an increasing rate of EVD infection.

Montserrado County's daily average declining from 50 cases/day to only 20/day should have led today's 9/21 report HIGHLIGHTS list, and the national 4 day 9/18-9/21 new case increases of only 255 and a noticeably lower 4 day average of only 64 cases per day, down from 83/day, should have been the report's 2nd HIGHLIGHT, but for some reason these 2 striking trend change features are ignored.

Once again incomplete and misplaced data with dramatic unexplained rate and trend changes leaves us waiting for the delayed totals from the next report in 6-7 days to reassess today's poorly presented 9/21 information, and the real rate of Liberian EVD infection growth.
 
Re: 50 Case 4.5%/Day Increase Doubles Montserrado in 16 Days

Certainly civilian quarantine avoidance and private social/burial habits result in very questionable data capture rendering all statistics incomplete, but the rapidity of the infection growth suggests to me the possibility that the ratio of unreported/unrecorded cases and deaths to recorded cases/deaths may remain steady enough so that some reasonable analysis of the reported portion of case/death rates may approximate the actual infection/death rates of the total of unrecorded and reported cases, even if no inference of the national total case/death levels is reasonable.

As for not being misled by daily fluctuations, I have applied varying weighted moving averages of 7-14-21 days for the various portions of the almost 60 days of 3 country/county numbers now in my database, and am comfortable with it as it reveals relatively steady trends, as well as sudden, otherwise unexplained and unrealistic rate jumps or drops, such as today's report of Montserrado's rising 10 day average of 50 cases/day suddenly dropping to only 20 cases/day for 4 days, which to me indicates lost data and reporting errors, which will become apparent in subsequent reports, rather than meaningful changes in the EVD infection rate.

The virus burning itself out, as many claim to be the likely resolution, or else gaining access to increased exponential growth in a million-plus urban Monrovian population, will make short-term 7-14-21 day infection rate and trend analysis meaningless, but I still believe that the relation of shorter to longer smoothed moving averages (oscillators) will prove to have been the first indication of major accelerations or slowdowns in this EVD saga, as well as the warning of data and reporting errors along the way.
 
Re: 50 Case 4.5%/Day Increase Doubles Montserrado in 16 Days

Yesterday 9/23 Liberia posted their SitRep #128 with data for 9/20:

Liberia Ebola SitRep no. 128
Ministry of Health and Social Welfare
Sept. 20, 2014
http://www.mohsw.gov.lr/documents/Liberia Ebola SitRep 128 Sept 20, 2014.pdf

Their cumulative case total of 3074 for 9/20 is LOWER THAN their cum case total of 3139 for the previous day's SitRep #127 for 9/19. Their 'Cases among HCWs' numbers for #128-9/20 ARE IDENTICAL to the 'Cases among HCWs' numbers for the previous SitRep #127-9/19. There are no tables for 'Isolation and Discharges' or 'Deaths' or 'Contacts' or summary data for their Table 3 in #128.

Their #128 Case numbers "for 9/20" being HIGHER THAN their Case numbers for their SitRep #125 for 9/17, and lower than their #127 numbers for 9/19 suggests to me that the 9/20-#128 Case numbers are actually for 9/18, the day for which no #126 report or data was issued.

Their #127 SitRep for 9/19 is incorrectly listed on their Report page as being for "March to 27 September".

Does anyone have access to a Lib SitRep #126 for 9/18? Does the misplaced 9/20 #128 'Cases' data appear to be the 'Cases' data for the missing 9/18 report?

Trying to fit this missing, misplaced, misdated information into my database is an ongoing difficulty, and the inaccurate reporting serves to obscure the actual infection rates and changes that the database would otherwise reveal.
 
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