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Editor, Senior Moderator
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/tools_and_services/mobile_times/swine_flu/article6440915.ece
June 6, 2009
Ten cases of swine flu with no traceable links indicate a UK pandemic
Sam Lister, Health Editor, and Mark Henderson, Science Editor
More than ten people in Britain have contracted swine flu without any traceable link to another infected person in the clearest sign yet that the country is moving towards a pandemic.
Of the 486 people infected with H1N1 confirmed by the Health Protection Agency, cases without an identifiable source are now ?in double figures, but under 20?, according to the agency?s chief adviser.
Professor Nigel Lightfoot told The Times that there was no evidence yet of sustained community transmission of the virus ? a key factor in any decision to raise the alert level to pandemic ? but the cases of unknown origin were a clear indicator of its spread.
Until now, only a couple of cases, including a 45-year old Scottish man who remains seriously ill from the virus, were thought to have contracted swine flu without identified contact with an infected person or someone returning from Mexico or other overseas locations suffering outbreaks.
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Professor Lightfoot, who was attending The Times Cheltenham Science Festival for a session designed to take the public through a developing pandemic scenario, said the HPA had reached the position of ?looking at aggregated trends rather than tracking the outbreaks on a case-by-case basis?. He said: ?What started as a containment strategy is now about delaying the spread so that Government preparedness plans are all in place. We are not [at a pandemic phase] yet. There are still things to be understood.?
Another of the festival?s speakers, Professor Neil Ferguson, an epidemiologist at Imperial College London, who advises the Government and the WHO, said swine flu was spreading so fast that ?there is a level of community transmission we are unable to stop?. This means that some containment policies, such as giving Tamiflu to all pupils at affected schools, will no longer have much effect and should soon be abandoned, he said.
Another 27 patients in England were confirmed with the virus yesterday, taking the total in Britain to 486. Fourteen of the new cases were in London and five were in the South East; five people with the virus remain in hospital in the Glasgow area.
Professor Ferguson said that the HPA was probably aware of no more than half the total number of swine flu cases, with the possibility of between 600 and 1,000 undetected cases out in the community. He added that Britain should prepare for a ?seasonal surge? of cases in the autumn. The virus, he said, was likely to infect about a third of the population and even if it remained mild in its effects it would cause thousands of deaths.
June 6, 2009
Ten cases of swine flu with no traceable links indicate a UK pandemic
Sam Lister, Health Editor, and Mark Henderson, Science Editor
More than ten people in Britain have contracted swine flu without any traceable link to another infected person in the clearest sign yet that the country is moving towards a pandemic.
Of the 486 people infected with H1N1 confirmed by the Health Protection Agency, cases without an identifiable source are now ?in double figures, but under 20?, according to the agency?s chief adviser.
Professor Nigel Lightfoot told The Times that there was no evidence yet of sustained community transmission of the virus ? a key factor in any decision to raise the alert level to pandemic ? but the cases of unknown origin were a clear indicator of its spread.
Until now, only a couple of cases, including a 45-year old Scottish man who remains seriously ill from the virus, were thought to have contracted swine flu without identified contact with an infected person or someone returning from Mexico or other overseas locations suffering outbreaks.
Related Links
Professor Lightfoot, who was attending The Times Cheltenham Science Festival for a session designed to take the public through a developing pandemic scenario, said the HPA had reached the position of ?looking at aggregated trends rather than tracking the outbreaks on a case-by-case basis?. He said: ?What started as a containment strategy is now about delaying the spread so that Government preparedness plans are all in place. We are not [at a pandemic phase] yet. There are still things to be understood.?
Another of the festival?s speakers, Professor Neil Ferguson, an epidemiologist at Imperial College London, who advises the Government and the WHO, said swine flu was spreading so fast that ?there is a level of community transmission we are unable to stop?. This means that some containment policies, such as giving Tamiflu to all pupils at affected schools, will no longer have much effect and should soon be abandoned, he said.
Another 27 patients in England were confirmed with the virus yesterday, taking the total in Britain to 486. Fourteen of the new cases were in London and five were in the South East; five people with the virus remain in hospital in the Glasgow area.
Professor Ferguson said that the HPA was probably aware of no more than half the total number of swine flu cases, with the possibility of between 600 and 1,000 undetected cases out in the community. He added that Britain should prepare for a ?seasonal surge? of cases in the autumn. The virus, he said, was likely to infect about a third of the population and even if it remained mild in its effects it would cause thousands of deaths.