2009 Influenza Sentinel Surveillance - ESR

[kiwibird]

Re: 2009 Influenza Sentinel Surveillance - ESR

Make sure you have anti-virals on hand and give them to the little ones at the first sign of sore throat, sniffle, temp....???

 

[Sally Furniss]

Re: 2009 Influenza Sentinel Surveillance - ESR

Each situation is different.

We will be following our normal term time routine.

We are aware of flu symptoms and early recognition of danger signs.

Taking in to account medical needs, each family member has there own pandemic plan. Pets included.

Flu buddies and flu boxes are in place.

Neighbours have been contacted, offers of help and phone numbers exchanged.

In the event of flu we will contact family, flu buddies, neighbours, doctor/flu helpline as needed.

Plans are not fixed and may change as situation changes.

 

[gsgs]

Re: 2009 Influenza Sentinel Surveillance - ESR

I just see that I used week 27 in my comparisons with
Fujian flu above, but NZ already has week 28, so add another big
increase. Maybe I can correct it...

 

[gsgs]

Re: 2009 Influenza Sentinel Surveillance - ESR

update for week 29:

http://www.surv.esr.cri.nz/PDF_surveillance/Virology/FluWeekRpt/2009/FluWeekRpt200929.pdf

~88% of flu are newflu
458 hospitalizations,5deaths

looks like the peak


Argentina assumes the peak 2 weeks ago
Chile assumes the peak in 3 weeks



can we compare it with Fujian-flu 2003 ?
how many hospitalizations, how many children died from flu in 2003

 

[kiwibird]

Re: 2009 Influenza Sentinel Surveillance - ESR

It appears the rate of consultation is levelling off.

 

[DazzaMc]

Re: 2009 Influenza Sentinel Surveillance - ESR

The effect of the school break?

 

[gsgs]

Re: 2009 Influenza Sentinel Surveillance - ESR

post peak !

 

[Sally Furniss]

Re: 2009 Influenza Sentinel Surveillance - ESR

gs I think it is too early to say whether it has peaked or not. School holidays may have had an influence. Most schools and universities went back to class on July the 20th.

 

[gsgs]

Re: 2009 Influenza Sentinel Surveillance - ESR

in last year's chart you can see a 2nd peak 4 weeks after the first one.

School reopening or different virus ?

 

[Sally Furniss]

Re: 2009 Influenza Sentinel Surveillance - ESR

School reopened 21 July 2008

I do not know when University students resumed classes.


edit to add

Primary schools have 2 weeks holiday

Secondary and university students have 3 weeks

 

[gsgs]

Re: 2009 Influenza Sentinel Surveillance - ESR

compare newflu with oldflu.
oldflu seems to have peaked earlier
But typically a wave takes ~10weeks so this is probably due to newflu
suppressing oldflu (by host immunity)

 

[kiwibird]

Re: 2009 Influenza Sentinel Surveillance - ESR

If the non sentinel results are taken from people who are ill, it shows the novel h1n1 is causing more severe illness than the seasonal flu (it shows a higher proportion of novel)

 

[kiwibird]

Re: 2009 Influenza Sentinel Surveillance - ESR

The latest graph of cases shows a distinct dip in the week 20 -26 July following, to a certain extent, the seasonal trend . The novel pandemic a/h1n1 is now the predominant strain but still remains sensitive to Tamiflu.

 

[gsgs]

Re: 2009 Influenza Sentinel Surveillance - ESR

dropping !

 

[kiwibird]

Re: 2009 Influenza Sentinel Surveillance - ESR

Massive drop in cases reported. See graph: http://www.surv.esr.cri.nz/PDF_surveillance/Virology/FluWeekRpt/2009/FluWeekRpt200932.pdf

 

[kiwibird]

Re: 2009 Influenza Sentinel Surveillance - ESR

Graph shows consultations still approx double the normal seasonal amount.
http://www.surv.esr.cri.nz/PDF_surveillance/Virology/FluWeekRpt/2009/FluWeekRpt200933.pdf

 

[mixin]

2009 Influenza Sentinel Surveillance - ESR

There has been a decrease in consultations for influenza-like illness through sentinel surveillance in week 43 (19-25 October 2009).

Up to 25 October 2009, a total of 4879 influenza viruses have been reported through sentinel (622, 13%) and non-sentinel surveillance (4257, 87%). Four influenza viruses were reported in week 43: two as pandemic (H1N1) 09 and two as A (not sub-typed) from the non-sentinel surveillance. Pandemic (H1N1) 09 has become the predominant strain among all influenza viruses. Seasonal A (H1N1) strain has been the predominant strain among all seasonal influenza viruses.




http://www.surv.esr.cri.nz/PDF_surveillance/Virology/FluWeekRpt/2009/FluWeekRpt200943.pdf

 

[kiwibird]

Re: 2009 Influenza Sentinel Surveillance - ESR

Sharp uptick in consultation rates, has surpassed 2008 levels already.
The majority of viruses were Pandemic (H1N1) 09 (207, 72%)
http://www.surv.esr.cri.nz/PDF_surveillance/Virology/FluWeekRpt/2010/FluWeekRpt201031.pdf