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Discussion thread II - Covid-19 (new coronavirus)

It is being said that Spain’s first case had contact with one of the infected in Germany. I assume based on the wording it was not the lady from China:


“The patient is admitted and isolated in a hospital of the island. It is part of the group of five tourists who were already under observation on the island. They had been in contact in Germany with a patient diagnosed with coronavirus infection.

https://www.antena3.com/noticias/so...-gomera_202001315e34a9380cf2cfb788f47b07.html
 
hawkeye said:
No final determination on cause of death, however I’ve seen plenty of photos and videos of similar and given the virus is automatically assumed, it is probably fair to say it was the virus. Truly sad.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2...ead-man-china-coronavirus-wuhan/#.XjSrHqROmEc
Click to expand...

Seems there are just too many to there not being something to it (nCOV):

https://mobile.twitter.com/a524952/status/1223271972164923393

https://mobile.twitter.com/Today__China/status/1223258424600711168
 
sharon sanders said:
We have that post but almost immediately after it is updated - more cases have been discovered.

I update it once a day after China reports their numbers. There are new countries today that are not on that list yet. I will bump that thread each night around 9 pm ET.

https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum...laimer-we-do-not-endorse-any-of-these-numbers
Click to expand...

If it were possible to plot the numbers as had been done so well by an earlier poster, it would give a considerably clearer appreciation of the evolution of this outbreak.
Getting a data point at some standard interval is probably more significant than being up to the very latest.
 
I know there isn’t a lot of confirmed data available. But after watching this video, everything I’ve been reading and seeing now makes sense. My jaw just hit the floor. At this point in time, given this latest information - I expect we will see the United States go into full quarantine mode at some point relatively soon.


I’ve listened to Chris Martenson on/off for many years now. I initially found him via the original Crash Course series he made. In that series and the many videos since he has always had the gift of presenting complex concepts in a simplified manner and in a calm and educational tone.

Chris’s works are one of the very few I share with others when introducing someone to the concept of preparing for economic upheaval. He is once again one of the few I share for nCov. Why? Because this is complex stuff that is scary and crazy to those who simply can’t grasp that the world around them can fundamentally change in a very short amount of time. And Chris is not an alarmist - he’s not screaming the end of the world is coming, he’s simply uses logical thinking, common sense and some basic mathematics to explain what he sees.

The reason I’m sharing the above information is to demonstrate to you how sincere I find his intentions to be. No one here knows me in my personal (real world) life - but I’m relatively quiet and for the most part I keep things like FluTrackers and all it represents to myself. I don’t consider myself an alarmist or a paranoid. Basically, I believe these things (like severe pandemics, failed fiat, wars) have happened before and will continue to do so.

I’d like to urge everyone to take the time to watch the video below. Also, take a look into his education background, he’s a smart guy.

Besides the hard hitting numbers, what stands out most is that Chris is not his normal self. He is clearly shaken by the information he shares which is based on the findings in this nCov research paper dated Jan 29th.

Bottomline:
R0 = 4.08
CFR = 6.50%

Chris clearly points out several times that this paper has not been peer-reviewed and that the virus can change. But ultimately this is the most recent data available.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Nmrm0mk5928

Document discussed in video: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.27.20018952v1.full.pdf
 
Folks should reference the prep threads toward the bottom of the main page. The pathogen has changed, but the resilience issues remain.
 
hawkeye said:
The popular site Zerohedge has been suspended. Happened after they posted about cNOV being engineered. Buzzfeed claims Zerohedge doxed a scientist

https://mobile.twitter.com/BNODesk/s...90807018868738
Click to expand...

Apparently, not only did they dox him, they accused him of creating this virus and putting part of the HIV/AIDS virus in it.

(Yes, I am aware there are some people who feel that short, often less than 20 base pairs, shared sequences between two unrelated viruses like H5N1 and Ebola or HIV and nCoV indicate recombination as opposed to sheer statistical coincidence. But that's not what's being accused here.)
 
alert said:
Apparently, not only did they dox him, they accused him of creating this virus and putting part of the HIV/AIDS virus in it.

(Yes, I am aware there are some people who feel that short, often less than 20 base pairs, shared sequences between two unrelated viruses like H5N1 and Ebola or HIV and nCoV indicate recombination as opposed to sheer statistical coincidence. But that's not what's being accused here.)
Click to expand...

I saw what I think you are talking about. There was a link on that (very powerful) hedge fund manager's Twitter feed to the Zerohedge post. It was inciting, suggesting paying the scientist a "visit" or at least calling and emailing. It's a dangerous game.
 
There is an update in the US section WA state thread. Ronan posted the research paper. He is cured now but was pretty sick by my standards. No ECMO but did need oxygen. It is possible an anti-viral turned the corner for him.
 
alert said:
Apparently, not only did they dox him, they accused him of creating this virus and putting part of the HIV/AIDS virus in it.

(Yes, I am aware there are some people who feel that short, often less than 20 base pairs, shared sequences between two unrelated viruses like H5N1 and Ebola or HIV and nCoV indicate recombination as opposed to sheer statistical coincidence. But that's not what's being accused here.)
Click to expand...

What I find interesting is how fast they suspended the account. There have been many horrific things posted on Twitter that have taken much more time to be removed.
 
Hi Everyone!

Thank you for participating.

I wanted to thank Hawkeye for his low key way of presenting some disturbing information in post 112.

We have a large following with 6 million hits in January. It is important that we not only provide the news above, but also remain "calm and collected" when posting here in the comments area.

As the data presented in post 112 is based on preliminary information, I have no idea if it is realistic or not. I think many cases are undiagnosed and - who knows how many deaths?

I am asking all participants to remain calm on the site. Many are looking to us as Independent Media.

We have a chance to help many.
 
First time posting in a long time. Regarding the Ro (R not?) value... if for example it is 2.0, and there is heavy containment/quaranteeing going on, is it reasonable to assume that those that are out there infecting are doing so at a higher rate than 2.0. Or is all an apples to apples comparison. Would the rate go down as more people are quarantined? If this question doesn't make sense, please just disregard or delete.
 
Thank you, I just found this on another thread here.
Preliminary studies based on the first 425 confirmed cases have placed the reproductive index, R0, at 2.2 (range 1.4 to 3.9). The R0 is the number of people, on average, who are infected by a single infected person. In comparison, the R0 for SARS-CoV was about 3. Outbreaks can be halted when the R value is brought to less than 1. Transmissibility is determined by the length of time that a virus-shedding patient has contact with other patients. Rapid identification and isolation of infected patients can shorten this period and lower the R value.
 
I have to respond to Hawkeye’s post #112 about the video link.

First, you should be skeptical when the speaker points out that after 20 cycles (days) there will be more than 274 billion infected people (at 10:41), that is about 40 times more people than exist on the planet today.

The authors of the article indicate that the R[SUB]0[/SUB] is about 4 meaning that each new case was infecting four other people. However, in reviewing the cited article, you need to recognized that the authors are not controlling for cases that were identified in previous periods. At some point, long before we get to 274 billion infections, every one will be infected, not once or twice or three times, but many times over, according to these authors.

The fallacy of this paper is that they are relying only on the total growth of cases to compute the R[SUB]0 [/SUB]. The proper way to estimate the R[SUB]0 [/SUB]is by looking only at the growth of the NEW cases from one period to the next. I have updated the chart on the growth of daily new cases through the 30[SUP]th[/SUP] of January at this link. The growth of new cases from the past weeks do NOT support the R[SUB]0[/SUB] proposed by the authors of this article.

We need to be worried about this outbreak, but it is not yet time to panic.
 
sharon sanders said:
Hi Everyone!

Thank you for participating.

I wanted to thank Hawkeye for his low key way of presenting some disturbing information in post 112.

We have a large following with 6 million hits in January. It is important that we not only provide the news above, but also remain "calm and collected" when posting here in the comments area.

As the data presented in post 112 is based on preliminary information, I have no idea if it is realistic or not. I think many cases are undiagnosed and - who knows how many deaths?

I am asking all participants to remain calm on the site. Many are looking to us as Independent Media.

We have a chance to help many.
Click to expand...

Thanks Sharon. I agree. The key to this is to be aware and observe with a keen eye and calm actions. Panic is not going to help anyone and will only cause more distress and damage as it pertains to reaching those who simply aren't being mindful of the situation. Also, we need to remember that it is very fluid right now - things can change just as quickly (if not quicker) than they have begun.
 
Laidback Al said:
I have to respond to Hawkeye’s post #112 about the video link.

First, you should be skeptical when the speaker points out that after 20 cycles (days) there will be more than 274 billion infected people (at 10:41), that is about 40 times more people than exist on the planet today.

The authors of the article indicate that the R[SUB]0[/SUB] is about 4 meaning that each new case was infecting four other people. However, in reviewing the cited article, you need to recognized that the authors are not controlling for cases that were identified in previous periods. At some point, long before we get to 274 billion infections, every one will be infected, not once or twice or three times, but many times over, according to these authors.

The fallacy of this paper is that they are relying only on the total growth of cases to compute the R[SUB]0 [/SUB]. The proper way to estimate the R[SUB]0 [/SUB]is by looking only at the growth of the NEW cases from one period to the next. I have updated the chart on the growth of daily new cases through the 30[SUP]th[/SUP] of January at this link. The growth of new cases from the past weeks do NOT support the R[SUB]0[/SUB] proposed by the authors of this article.

We need to be worried about this outbreak, but it is not yet time to panic.
Click to expand...

Thanks LA - reading what you've written, do we know if reinfection is not possible (I'm sure there are always exceptions, but I'm asking with regards to the general population)? I hadn't thought about it until now.
 
Laidback Al, Thank you for making that point regarding RO miscalculation. A similar mistake was made in one or two previous posts a few days ago here and on seveal other websites.

What has me curious today is the fact that newly confirmed cases have flatlined the last ~four days in China. I don't have any evidence, but I am simply curious if what we are seeing is a max capacity issue in the processing of cases somewhere along the clinical chain from Emergency Rood admittance to laboratory confirmation to clerical reporting. In normal situations, the staffing level and equipment through put exertss limitation on production. Have we simply taxed the system so that we are flatlined in the daily reporting. This would only apply to those centers or areas suffering from the worst of the onslaught of patients.

For discussion, thanks.
 
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