USA - Actual ISDS flu trends

[gsgs]

Re: USA - Actual ISDS flu trends

the last data-point in the ISDS charts is often unrelyable

see e.g. region 3 : the big down in the last week is hard to believe
and likely to be corrected soon

region 5,8 had an up especally in the last week, while region 6
is continuously up since 4 weeks.

Of course, these are only small changes, but interesting to watch
how the new wave starts.
Is it already now that it is being determined what strain will dominate in Jan.,Feb. ?

 

[gsgs]

Re: USA - Actual ISDS flu trends

NE is not yet going up

 

[gsgs]

Re: USA - Actual ISDS flu trends

ILI is up in all regions now, except region 1, NE-USA

this could be due to the still high temperature in this region
and high humidity

comparing Chicago,IL with Augusta,ME

 

[gsgs]

Re: USA - Actual ISDS flu trends

region 9 goes up

 

[gsgs]

Re: USA - Actual ISDS flu trends

v..............................

 

[gsgs]

Re: USA - Actual ISDS flu trends

week 46
Mass,Ver,Minn,Ark,NH,NY,NJ,Napa,

 

[gsgs]

Re: USA - Actual ISDS flu trends

week 47 , future weeks to the right of this

 

[gsgs]

Re: USA - Actual ISDS flu trends

rechecking the thanksgiving theory from post 20 ..

doesn't fit so well with the exact thanksgiving week.
Until 2006 the dent was in the thanksgiving week,
since 2007 it is in the week after thanksgiving

maybe school holidays ? or whether ?
can be used to explain the almost yearly small dents at the
beginning of the US-flu-season




thanksgiving dent

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=388671


> Thanksgiving Day, celebrated on the fourth Thursday in November,


Thursday, November 22, 2001 , week 47
Thursday, November 28, 2002 , week 48
Thursday, November 27, 2003 , week 48
Thursday, November 25, 2004 , week 47
Thursday, November 24, 2005 , week 47
Thursday, November 23, 2006 , week 47
Thursday, November 22, 2007 , week 47
Thursday, November 27, 2008 , week 48
Thursday, November 26, 2009 , week 47
Thursday, November 25, 2010 , week 47
Thursday, November 24, 2011 , week 47

2003/04 and 2009/10 were excluded, because flu started extraordinarily early in those years

 

[mixin]

Re: USA - Actual ISDS flu trends

I don't see any talk about a Thanksgiving theory in post #20.

What was the theory?

 

[gsgs]

Re: USA - Actual ISDS flu trends

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=158252
posts 20-36

We also discussed the effect of Christmas or New Year holidays.

the charts are % positives, it's not so clear in the mere ILI-charts,
I may try that too later.

These are ratios, so less reporting or less testing over the holidays
would be cancelled out.


I would have expected that these events did increase flu because
of family gatherings --> spreading, but the reverse seems to take place.
Maybe it's mainly the children that contribute and mainly at school ?
Or normal business provides more contacts and virus spread
than family meetings.

------edit--------
USA:
Fall Break - about 2 to 3 days to one week in the fall, generally around Mid to late October (depending on region)
Thanksgiving Holiday - End of November (Thanksgiving Day & Day after - Wednesday is half day)

so, that doesn't fit

 

[Missouriwatcher]

Re: USA - Actual ISDS flu trends

Region 1 showing above average ILI. Is it due to Maine?
http://www.isdsdistribute.org/

 

[gsgs]

Re: USA - Actual ISDS flu trends

Maine looks very much like a data-error, we had that before.
Also San Diego in region 9

 

[Missouriwatcher]

Re: USA - Actual ISDS flu trends

Week 50: Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention reports:
ED ILI: 1%
P&I: 21.7%
No positives for influenza

Hospital admissions have been below last year while P&I deaths have been above
http://www.maine.gov/dhhs/mecdc/inf...a/influenza-surveillance-weekly-updates.shtml

Week 50: County of San Diego reporting
ED ILI: 3%
P&I: 6% (last week 11%)
Influenza A detected; last week 12 samples tested positive for A and B varieties
http://www.sdcounty.ca.gov/hhsa/programs/phs/community_epidemiology/disease_surveillance.html

Nebraska? Reporting no flu related deaths for season (in week 49 report) http://dhhs.ne.gov/publichealth/pages/flu_report.aspx
ED ILI: last report week 49 was 5.83%
Omaha P&I week 50: 10.8% (week 49: 10%)
Lincoln P&I week 50: 0 (week 49: 5.4%)
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6050md.htm?s_cid=mm6050md_w
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6049md.htm?s_cid=mm6049md_w

 

[gsgs]

Re: USA - Actual ISDS flu trends

ffffffffffffffffffff

 

[gsgs]

Re: USA - Actual ISDS flu trends

looks like a peak in week 10 or later this season
still time to get vaccinated ! (H3N2)

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=13878&stc=1&d=1328347912

 

[gsgs]

Re: USA - Actual ISDS flu trends

 

[gsgs]

Re: USA - Actual ISDS flu trends

this is being updated (almost) weekly
see picture-links in the post above

Attached Images
isds5z.png (27.4 KB, 26 views)
isdsz7.png (15.8 KB, 11 views)
isdsz8.gif (12.7 KB, 2 views)

week 10 - does that even count as "flu-season" this year in USA ?
or Russia,or England



Attached Images isds5z.png (27.4 KB, 34 views)
isdsz7.png (15.8 KB, 20 views)
isdsz8.gif (12.7 KB, 4 views)
isdsz9.png (22.0 KB, 3 views)
isdsz10.png (24.0 KB, 1 views)
isdsz11.png (24.7 KB, 5 views)
isdsz12.png (25.5 KB, 0 views)

 

[gsgs]

Re: USA - Actual ISDS flu trends

> The evolving nature of syndromic surveillance practice in the US has
> led ISDS to make the difficult decision to end its management of
> the Distribute system.
> As of April 4, 2012, ISDS will no longer be displaying visualizations of
> the Proportion of Emergency Department Visits For Influenza-like
> Illness (ILI) per Week on this site.


---------------------------

so I took the CDC-data , this is ~ 1 week behind the ISDS-data and
the regions have different sizes, so I normalized

region 9 is still going up , B up, H3N2 slowly declining

----------------------------------------------------

week 14: up in regions 1,2,3,10 down in 4,5,6,7,8,9
week 15: up in 1,3