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Katia expected to bring strong winds to the British Islands as a powerful Post-Tropical cyclone on Monday

Pathfinder

Pathfinder

Editor, Senior Moderator
Hurricane KATIA Public Advisory

000
WTNT32 KNHC 041452
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 04 2011

...KATIA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 59.2W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.2 WEST. KATIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...KATIA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATIA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND KATIA COULD BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE BY MONDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
175 MILES...280 KM. NOAA BUOY 41044 LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE
CENTER OF KATIA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 90 MPH...144
KM/H AND A GUST TO 107 MPH...173 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECENT PRESSURE
REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 41044 IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY KATIA ARE PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT OR
MONDAY. SWELLS COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/041452.shtml

-----------------------------------------------------------

Hurricane KATIA Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT42 KNHC 041454
TCDAT2

HURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 04 2011

EARLIER THIS MORNING...THE CENTER OF KATIA MOVED JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF NOAA BUOY 41044...WHICH MEASURED A PEAK 1-MINUTE WIND OF 78
KT...A GUST TO 93 KT...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 968.3 MB.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE RISEN TO BETWEEN 65 AND
77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...BUT THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES
HAVE BEEN HOVERING AROUND 85 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...KATIA IS
INITIALIZED AS AN 85-KT HURRICANE. AN EYE IS BECOMING APPARENT IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...YET THE INFRARED IMAGERY DOES NOT SHOW
THE DEEP CONVECTION VERY SYMMETRICAL.

KATIA APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 305/10 KT.
ALTHOUGH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY FORECAST
PERIOD...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE ON THIS FORECAST RELATIVE TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE. THE ECMWF...UKMET...AND HWRF MODELS REMAIN ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WHILE THE GFS AND GFDL ARE A
LITTLE FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH BY DAY 5. MUCH OF THIS DIFFERENCE
APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE POSITIONING OF THE CLOSED MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
IN 4-5 DAYS...WHICH THE GFS SHOWS ABOUT 300 N MI FARTHER TO THE
EAST AND DEEPER THAN IN THE ECMWF AND UKMET AT DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND STILL KEEPS
THE HURRICANE AT OR EAST OF 72W.

DESPITE THE QUICK STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS...ADT
ESTIMATES HAVE LEVELED OFF AT 85 KT...AND IT IS HARD TO TELL IF THE
CYCLE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS GOING TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY.
THE SHIPS MODEL IS STILL DIAGNOSING ABOUT 15 KT OF SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER KATIA...BUT THE HURRICANE MAY BE
BENEFITING FROM UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW
JETS TO ITS NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS AT THE HIGHER RANGE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...FOLLOWING CLOSE
TO THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS. HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS
SUFFICIENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND KATIA COULD STILL
STRENGTHEN MORE THAN INDICATED HERE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 21.9N 59.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 22.9N 60.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 24.1N 62.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 25.2N 64.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 26.2N 65.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 28.0N 68.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 30.0N 71.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 33.0N 72.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/041454.shtml?
 
Re: Katia rapidly intensifies to a category 2 hurricane

Re: Katia rapidly intensifies to a category 2 hurricane

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center

Click image to zoom out ? Download GIS data
Other images: 5-Day track on ? 3-Day track on ? 3-Day track off ? Interactive<SUP>New!</SUP>
Click Here for a Printer Friendly Graphic
Note: If a storm is expected to dissipate within 5 days, its track will be shorter

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/145134.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents
 
Hurricane Katia - Threat of rip currents expected to increase along east coast of the United States

Hurricane Katia - Threat of rip currents expected to increase along east coast of the United States

Hurricane KATIA Public Advisory

000
WTNT32 KNHC 042047
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 PM AST SUN SEP 04 2011

...THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 60.1W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.1 WEST. KATIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATIA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND KATIA COULD BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY KATIA ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PARTS
OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...BERMUDA...THE GREATER
ANTILLES...AND EAST-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. SWELLS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/042047.shtml

-----------------------------------------------------
Hurricane KATIA Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT42 KNHC 042048
TCDAT2

HURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 PM AST SUN SEP 04 2011

WHILE KATIA HAS HAD A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED EYE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...THE INFRARED REPRESENTATION OF THE EYE HAS COME AND GONE
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 1800 UTC
WERE A UNANIMOUS T5.0 FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT...SO
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

KATIA HAS TURNED JUST A BIT TO THE RIGHT WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
310/10 KT. COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW FORECAST CYCLES...THERE IS
CONSIDERABLY MORE AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS
PACKAGE. FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS...THE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
AND AGREES ON MAINTAINING KATIA ON A HEADING OF 310 DEGREES WITH
SOME DECELERATION. THEREAFTER...THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE BUT NOT
AS MUCH AS THERE WAS EARLIER. ACTUALLY...THE GFS...ECWMF...AND
UKMET MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND HAVE THE POSITION OF
THE LOW WITHIN 200 N MI OF EACH OTHER BY DAY 5. THIS CONFIGURATION
SHOULD CAUSE KATIA TO MAKE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE USUALLY RELIABLE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED A BIT
TO THE EAST AND IS NOW VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST
FOR THIS CYCLE.

THE PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION MAY HAVE LEVELED OFF A BIT...BUT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING. THE ONLY APPARENT NEGATIVE FACTORS FOR THIS ARE
RELATIVELY WARM UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES AND LOWER OCEANIC
HEAT CONTENT VALUES ALONG THE FORECAST PATH...ESPECIALLY FROM DAYS
3 THROUGH 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS STILL AT THE UPPER END OF
THE RANGE OF GUIDANCE VALUES...CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL HURRICANE
MODELS...AND INDICATES GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING ON DAYS 4 AND 5.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH KATIA ARE ALREADY APPROACHING
PARTS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. EVEN IF KATIA DOES
NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE UNITED STATES...THE THREAT FOR HIGH SURF
AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG EAST COAST BEACHES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR MORE INFORMATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 22.7N 60.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 23.7N 61.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 25.0N 63.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 26.1N 64.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 27.1N 66.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 29.0N 69.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 31.5N 71.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 34.5N 71.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/042048.shtml?
 
Re: Hurricane Katia - Threat of rip currents expected to increase along east coast of the United States

Re: Hurricane Katia - Threat of rip currents expected to increase along east coast of the United States

rb-l.jpg


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/rb-l.jpg
 
Re: Hurricane Katia - Threat of rip currents expected to increase along east coast of the United States

Re: Hurricane Katia - Threat of rip currents expected to increase along east coast of the United States

Hurricane KATIA Public Advisory

000
WTNT32 KNHC 051446
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
1100 AM AST MON SEP 05 2011

...KATIA STRENGTHENS AND DEVELOPS A LARGE EYE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 63.3W
ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.3 WEST. KATIA
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATIA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST...AND KATIA COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY KATIA ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MOST
OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...BERMUDA...THE GREATER
ANTILLES...AND EAST-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. SWELLS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/041452.shtml

-------------------------------------------------------
Hurricane KATIA Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT42 KNHC 051447
TCDAT2

HURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
1100 AM AST MON SEP 05 2011

KATIA APPEARS TO HAVE GONE THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT AND NOW
HAS A 30 N MI WIDE EYE SURROUNDED BY A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF
THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE RISEN TO
T5.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS ARE AT T5.5.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE BEING RAISED TO 95 KT.

THE EYE HAS BEEN WOBBLING A BIT...BUT THE 12-HOUR SMOOTHED MOTION IS
310/11 KT. KATIA IS MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
CENTRAL ATLANTIC MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND TOWARDS DEEP-LAYER
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING A NORTHWESTWARD
HEADING WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE FIRST 48
HOURS. ALTHOUGH ALL THE GUIDANCE SHOWS SHARP RE-CURVATURE BETWEEN
BERMUDA AND THE U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...THERE IS STILL A
LARGE DIVERGENCE IN FORWARD SPEED WITH GREATER-THAN-NORMAL SPREAD
AT DAYS 4 AND 5. FOR THIS CYCLE...THE GUIDANCE IS BOUNDED BY THE
SLOWER-MOVING ECMWF AND UKMET...AND THE FASTER-MOVING GFS. IF
TRENDS FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS CONTINUE TODAY...I WOULD EXPECT
THE 12Z GUIDANCE TO SHOW LESS SPREAD AND FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AS BEING SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS MODELS.

THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT NEAR KATIA APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS OR SO...THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT VALUES THAT DO NOT NORMALLY SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THEREFORE INDICATES GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN MAINTAINS THE
INTENSITY THROUGH DAYS 2 AND 3. WEAKENING IS FORECAST ON DAYS 4
AND 5 AS VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES...AND AS KATIA MOVES OVER EVEN
LESS CONDUCIVE OCEAN WATERS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS AT
THE UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

DUE TO THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT...IT APPEARS THAT THE WIND FIELD HAS
EXPANDED A BIT...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE ANALYSIS AND FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 24.6N 63.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 25.6N 64.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 26.9N 65.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 28.1N 67.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 29.2N 68.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 32.5N 70.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 37.0N 67.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 40.0N 60.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/051447.shtml?
 
Hurricane Katia - Tropical storm watch issued for Bermuda

Hurricane Katia - Tropical storm watch issued for Bermuda

Hurricane KATIA Public Advisory

000
WTNT32 KNHC 061445
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 06 2011

...KATIA WEAKENS A LITTLE...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR
BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 65.9W
ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL STORM INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.9 WEST. KATIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH BY THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CORE OF KATIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATIA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL
CHECK THE INTENSITY OF KATIA THIS AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES...100 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY KATIA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST
OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...BERMUDA...THE GREATER
ANTILLES...AND EAST-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE
POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...KATIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/061445.shtml

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Hurricane KATIA Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT42 KNHC 061445
TCDAT2

HURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 06 2011

MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM OVERNIGHT INDICATES THAT KATIA HAS GONE
THROUGH A CLASSIC EYEWALL REPLACEMENT WITH A WIDE RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION ENCLOSING A SMALLER AND ERODING INNER EYEWALL. AS WOULD
BE EXPECTED IN A CASE LIKE THIS...DVORAK FINAL T-NUMBERS HAVE
DECREASED TO BETWEEN 5.0 AND 5.5...AND CI NUMBERS REMAIN AT 6.0.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING SET AT 105 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF
THESE NUMBERS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE KATIA THIS AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF KATIA CONTINUES TO WOBBLE...THE SMOOTHED
INITIAL MOTION IS 310/9 KT. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
TRACK FORECAST OR THE REASONING BEHIND IT. THE HURRICANE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO MAKE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVER
THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS IT IS STEERED BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND A
CLOSED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS.
THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 72 HOURS...
SUGGESTING THAT THE RE-CURVATURE MAY NOT BE QUITE AS SHARP AS
PREVIOUSLY SHOWN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT
DIRECTION BUT LIES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TVCA AND EXPERIMENTAL
TV15 CONSENSUS MODELS. AFTER 72 HOURS...KATIA IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE MODELS ARE
STILL SHOWING SOME DIVERGENCE IN SPEED AT 96 AND 120 HOURS...BUT
THE SPREAD IS NOT AS LARGE AS IT HAS BEEN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. ONLY A
SLIGHT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS REQUIRED AT DAY 5.

SINCE KATIA IS GOING THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT AND WILL BE LEFT
WITH A LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
WOULD BE FOR THE HURRICANE TO CHANGE LITTLE IN STRENGTH IN THE
SHORT TERM. GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE BY 36 HOURS AS KATIA
IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER WATERS OF LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND POSSIBLY BE AFFECTED BY STRONGER
SHEAR. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...BAROCLINIC FORCING SHOULD PREVENT KATIA
FROM WEAKENING TOO MUCH...EVEN OVER COLDER WATERS...AND THE CYCLONE
IS FORECAST TO BE A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL STORM OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MAINLY JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 27.0N 65.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 27.9N 67.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 29.2N 68.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 30.9N 69.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 32.9N 70.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 37.5N 67.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 41.5N 56.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 49.0N 35.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/061445.shtml?
 
Re: Hurricane Katia - Tropical storm watch issued for Bermuda

Re: Hurricane Katia - Tropical storm watch issued for Bermuda

Nearly 300 Stung By Jellyfish In Volusia

Volusia County Lifeguards Also Warn Beachgoers Of Rip Currents

UPDATED: 6:27 pm EDT September 5, 2011


DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. -- Hurricane Katia is already leaving an impact along the Central Florida coast as lifeguards on Labor Day warned beachgoers of dangerous rip currents and jellyfish.

The waves in Daytona Beach have doubled in size since Sunday and will continue to grow in the next few days, creating problems for swimmers and keeping lifeguards busy.
...
The strong currents weren't the only concern for swimmers and lifeguards. Beach patrol officers said jellyfish stung nearly 300 swimmers on Monday.

Full text:
http://www.clickorlando.com/news/29086310/detail.html
 
Re: Hurricane Katia - Tropical storm watch issued for Bermuda

Re: Hurricane Katia - Tropical storm watch issued for Bermuda

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Weatheroffice
www.weatheroffice.gc.ca


Tropical Cyclone Information Statements <!-- CONTENT TITLE ENDS | FIN DU TITRE DU CONTENU -->

<!-- contents read from bulletin: ACC-WO31HX1007204136 -->
Tropical cyclone information statement updated by the Canadian

Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 5:40 PM ADT Wednesday
7 September 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
Newfoundland
Nova Scotia.

For hurricane katia.

The next statement will be issued by 9:00 AM ADT.

Hurricane katia expected to track well south of Nova Scotia on
Friday. The regular (6-hourly) forecast cycle will begin
Thursday morning at 9:00 AM ADT.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==discussion==
Dry air from the U.S. has been moving offshore and causing katia to
weaken on Wednesday. As of 6:00 PM ADT Wednesday, katia was centred
about 500 kilometres southwest of Bermuda or 1700 kilometres
south-southwest of Halifax with maximum winds near 130 km/h.
Most computer models are indicating that the intensity is likely to
stay at category-1 over the next 3 days as katia tracks north, then
takes a sharp eastward turn on Friday.

That would result in wind impacts limited to the distant offshore and
large waves reaching the southern coastlines of Nova Scotia and
Newfoundland. Swell of 1.5 metres (5 feet) is being measured this
evening at Halifax harbour buoy. This equates to wave breaking
heights at some beaches up to 3 metres (7-10 feet). Swell of 2
metres or more is expected along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia
Thursday and Friday. Waves could break in the 3-4 metre (10-13 feet)
range at some locations. Dangerous surf and riptide conditions will
occur and spectators should stay well away from the wave-breaking
zones.

The current plan at the Canadian Hurricane Centre is to begin our
regular forecast cycle of 6-hourly bulletins starting Thursday
morning at 9:00 AM ADT. The current long-range forecasts for the
southernmost Canadian marine territory is for gale-force winds on
Friday and/or Saturday with potential for storm-force winds.

Visit weatheroffice.Gc.Ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the
latest hurricane track information map from the national hurricane
centre in Miami. The Canadian Hurricane Centre will also be issuing
track forecasts starting Thursday morning.

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings
issued by Environment Canada for your area.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/hurricane/statements_e.html
 
Re: Hurricane Katia - Tropical storm watch issued for Bermuda

Re: Hurricane Katia - Tropical storm watch issued for Bermuda

Hurricane KATIA Public Advisory

000
WTNT32 KNHC 100848
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 49
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 AM AST SAT SEP 10 2011

...KATIA EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...43.3N 53.4W
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM E OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 44 MPH...70 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 43.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.4 WEST. KATIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 44 MPH...70 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KATIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND KATIA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE
ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310
MILES...500 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY KATIA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
NEW ENGLAND...ATLANTIC CANADA...AND BERMUDA TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/100848.shtml?
--------------------------------------------------
<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD align=left><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD><!-- START OF CONTENT --><!-- BEGIN SPECIAL NOTICE SECTION --><!-- The following is special notice that will appear on all pages as a headline --><!-- Used during a problem on the website...creates a banner on all pages. --><!--UNCOMMENT THIS AS APPROPRIATEThe NHC website is in backup mode. Some information may not be available.

--><!-- END SPECIAL NOTICE SECTION --></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Hurricane KATIA Forecast Discussion</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
000
WTNT42 KNHC 101023
TCDAT2

HURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 49...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 AM AST SAT SEP 10 2011

CORRECTED STATUS IN TABLE AT 12-HOUR FORECAST TIME

KATIA APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY ELONGATED...
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
CONVECTION. THE LATEST SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS SUGGEST THAT KATIA
HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE...AND THAT IS THE BASIS FOR THE SLIGHTLY
LOWER INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
COLDER THAN 20C...SHOULD CAUSE KATIA TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN
ABOUT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE
STRONG AS AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WHILE MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH ATLANTIC....APPROACHING THE BRITISH ISLES AND NORTHERN
EUROPE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE HURRICANE IS EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...
AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/38. THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITHIN THE
STRONG FLOW TO THE EAST OF A HIGH LATITUDE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE
GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

INTERESTS IN AND AROUND THE BRITISH ISLES AND NORTHERN EUROPE SHOULD
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE UKMET OFFICE AT
WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK/WEATHER

NO 96-HOUR FORECAST POINT HAS BEEN PROVIDED DUE TO SOFTWARE
ISSUES WHEN SYSTEMS MOVE EAST OF ZERO DEGREES LONGITUDE. THE 34- AND
50-KT WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED OUTWARD OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE
BASED ON A 0144 UTC ASCAT PASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 43.3N 53.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 46.0N 44.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 11/0600Z 50.2N 32.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 11/1800Z 53.9N 21.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 12/0600Z 57.3N 13.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/0600Z 61.3N 1.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/0600Z...EAST OF ZERO DEGREES LONGITUDE

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/101023.shtml?
 
Katia expected to bring strong winds to the British Islands as a powerful Post-Tropical cyclone on Monday

Post-Tropical Cyclone KATIA Public Advisory

000
WTNT32 KNHC 101454
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 50
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 10 2011

...KATIA LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE FAR NORTH
ATLANTIC...EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE BRITISH
ISLES AS A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.7N 47.7W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
ABOUT 1960 MI...3160 KM WSW OF GLASGOW SCOTLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 53 MPH...85 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.7 WEST.
KATIA IS RACING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 53 MPH...85 KM/H...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVER OR NEAR THE NORTHERN BRITISH ISLES ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KATIA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310
MILES...500 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECENT REPORTS FROM
CANADIAN BUOY 44140 NEAR THE CENTER OF KATIA IS 954 MB...28.17
INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...GALE- TO STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF
THE BRITISH ISLES ON MONDAY...AND COULD CAUSE DAMAGE TO TREES AND
DISRUPT TRANSPORTATION AND OTHER PUBLIC SERVICES. INTERESTS IN
AND AROUND THE BRITISH ISLES AND NORTHERN EUROPE SHOULD MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE AT
WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK/WEATHER/.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY KATIA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT U.S.
NEW ENGLAND AREAS...ATLANTIC CANADA...AND BERMUDA TODAY....AND
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE BRITISH ISLES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 50 TO 100 MILLIMETERS...
2 TO 4 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF SCOTLAND
THROUGH MONDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON KATIA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/101454.shtml?
 
Re: Katia expected to bring strong winds to the British Islands as a powerful Post-Tropical cyclone on Monday

2011-9-12


wind-amber.gif
<LABEL class=warnHeadingLabel>Wind</LABEL><LABEL class=warnHeadingLabel>12 Sep 2011, 03:00</LABEL>
wind-amber.gif
<LABEL class=warnHeadingLabel>Wind</LABEL>
<LABEL class=warnHeadingLabel>Valid From: 12 Sep 2011, 03:00</LABEL>
<LABEL class=warnHeadingLabel>Valid To: 12 Sep 2011, 23:59</LABEL>


<LABEL class=warnLabel>Issued at - 11 Sep 2011, 11:24</LABEL>
<LABEL class=warnLabel>Valid from - 12 Sep 2011, 03:00</LABEL>
<LABEL class=warnLabel>Valid to - 12 Sep 2011, 23:59</LABEL>


The remains of Hurricane Katia will move eastwards across northern Scotland during Monday, bringing a spell of very windy weather to the UK and also heavy rain to western Scotland. The strongest winds are expected to affect parts of Northern Ireland during the morning, before moving east across central and southern Scotland and into northeast England by evening. However, areas further south will not be immune, with the potential for strong gusts, particularly to the east of high ground.The public should be prepared for the risk of disruption to transport and of the possibility of damage to trees and structures.

Chief Forecaster's Assessment


Hurricance Katia has now become an intense mid latitude depression and is heading towards the UK. The centre of the depression will pass over northern Scotland later on Monday, bringing the strongest winds to the north of Northern Ireland and to central and southern Scotland, where there are likely to be 60-70 mph gusts even inland, and gusts of 80 mph or more over exposed coasts, hills and bridges. Powerful gusts will also occur to the east of high ground from mid-Wales northwards with a risk of 70-80 mph gusts for parts of northeast England and southeast Scotland during Monday evening. Heavy rain will be an additional hazard for western Scotland, with as much as 50-100 mm in places.


</PRE>http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html?day=2
 
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