World Economic Forum 2009 - 2013

[gsgs]

this year: 28.Jan. - 1.Febr.
http://www.weforum.org/en/events/AnnualMeeting2009/index.htm


global risk report 2009:

http://www.weforum.org/pdf/globalrisk/2009.pdf

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: World Economic Forum 2009

Re: World Economic Forum 2009

Thank you Gsgs for starting this thread.

From the Opening Speech -


"..Today, people from every corner of the globe ask how it was possible that decisions could be taken, led by greed or incompetence and with no effective oversight − decisions that had terrible consequences, not only for the global economy but also for real people, who have lost their pensions, their homes or their jobs. They feel bewildered, confused, scared and angry. They may not understand what went wrong but they are clear that their leaders have let them down. They now look to those leaders ? corporate, political and societal ? not only to say sorry but to repair the damage to their families and communities. Gathered here are many of the world?s most influential leaders. We cannot sidestep our responsibility to work together to rebuild shattered economies and institutions..."


http://www.weforum.org/pdf/AM_2009/OpeningSpeech_KlausSchwab.pdf

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: World Economic Forum 2009

Re: World Economic Forum 2009

Leaders meeting at the World Economic Forum in Davos this week should seriously consider how the economic crisis can be a catalyst for new models of growth and a new way of doing business, said international agency Oxfam today.


Barbara Stocking, Chief Executive of Oxfam GB, who is attending the summit said:


?We cannot simply carry on with business as usual. The current crisis affects us all. Some people at this meeting have lost billions, but for many of the people with whom we work financial insecurity is a fact of life. And they now face further challenges as a result of the downturn.
?In the last recession, overseas aid fell by 25%, and in 1972/3 it was down by 15%. This must not happen again ? especially when rich countries are already breaking promises to increase aid, and countries need more, not less, help to cope with the impact of volatile food and fuel prices, and the effects of climate change.


?The direct impacts of the downturn are already being felt in poor countries. In Vietnam, where foreign direct investment accounts for over a fifth of total investment, there is a concern that vital projects may be postponed or cancelled.


?Remittances from overseas workers are also set to fall. This will have a massive impact in some countries, such as Bangladesh, where one family in every village is dependent on them to survive.


?And the collapse in commodity prices will affect poor countries, both directly, from falling sales, and indirectly through increased unemployment. For example, in the DRC, at least 200,000 jobs have been lost following a collapse in mineral prices.?


?The leaders meeting in Davos this week can make a difference to all this. Politicians must reiterate promises to increase aid ? and then keep them. Private sector leaders must strive to minimize the impact on poor people of redundancies and falling demand. And banks should behave more responsibly and make sure money is available for poor countries to invest in vital infrastructure and pursue economic development.


?As importantly, a new dialogue should begin this week, which focuses on how to make growth more sustainable, and economic governance more inclusive. There is an opportunity at the heart of this crisis: to realign power relations and opportunities in a way that ensures our future is not blighted by growing inequality.


?Specifically, investors should be looking at the double opportunity offered by investment in green technology ? help the environment and boost the economy at the same time.?



http://www.oxfam.org/en/pressroom/pressrelease/2009-01-28/davos-time-rethink-not-business-as-usual

 

[gsgs]

Re: World Economic Forum 2009

Re: World Economic Forum 2009

better picture: (I can no longer edit above post)

asset price collapse is the top risk
(only a risk for those who have the assets ? {but good for others,
good in total I assume})

so, imagine a new method is found to build houses much cheaper.
Houses becomes cheap, assets in houses go down.
Is that a "risk" for the economy in total ???
I'd think it's progress.

 

[gsgs]

Re: World Economic Forum 2009

Re: World Economic Forum 2009

http://www.weforum.org/pdf/globalrisk/globalrisks2010.pdf
top risk is "asset price collapse"
I remember we had been discussing these
since 2006.
Then their pandemic risk went up in the
last years while apparantly for the flubies
it went down.
my analysis in 2008:
http://www.setbb.com/fluwiki2/viewtopic.php?t=324&mforum=fluwiki2
10 years

http://magictour.free.fr/risk10.JPG
pandemic : likelyhood 8% , damage $300B
(over the next 10 year)
$2.4B expectation value per year

as compared to asset price collapse :
probability =35% , damage=$2000B
expectation value = $70B per year
35 times worse
prices going down is a risk ? I don't get it.

the yearly burdon of seasonal flu in USA was given as $12B
earlier by another source

 

[gsgs]

Re: World Economic Forum 2009

Re: World Economic Forum 2009

Global risk report 2011

http://riskreport.weforum.org/global-risks-2011.pdf

top risks:

climate change
financial crisis
economic disparity
geopolitical conflict
extreme energy price volatility
global governance failure


pandemic is no longer listed :-O


"asset price collapse" would still be causing much damage,
but is considered less likely now

"fiscal crisis" doesn't seem to mean less money ... just
people would recognize there is a crisis
so, as long as the problem can be hidden, there is no risk ;-)

volatile energy prices is now the problem, not rising prices.
Why is it so bad, when they are volatile ? Take the average
price ?!

what is economic disparity ? new risk ?

danger from climate change increased ?

most likely now : "storms and cyclones"

 

[Laidback Al]

Re: World Economic Forum 2009

Re: World Economic Forum 2009

Thanks for posting the 2011 link. Chart from pdf file posted below.

Just because we had a pandemic doesn't mean we can't have another one shortly. A devastating pandemic is always a risk.

 

[gsgs]

Re: World Economic Forum 2009 - 2012

Re: World Economic Forum 2009 - 2012

2012:
http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GlobalRisks_Report_2012.pdf

top risks are:
water supply crisis
chronic fiscal inbalances
severe income disparity
food shortage crisis
extreme volatility in energy and agriculture prices
rising green house gas emissions
major systemic financial failure


pandemic is no longer among the top 20 risks
asset price collapse is no longer listed
nor storms and cyclones

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: World Economic Forum 2009 - 2012

Re: World Economic Forum 2009 - 2012

It looks to me that they assess the overwhelming top risk as possible civil unrest due to:

1)chronic fiscal imbalances
2)severe income disparity
3)food shortage crisis
4)extreme volatility in energy and agriculture prices
5)major systemic financial failure

2,3,4 are directly related to food issues. 1 and 5 are indirectly related. People do not usually starve in silence and compliance.

This implies economic growth for the security industry. Yes?

 

[gsgs]

Re: World Economic Forum 2009 - 2012

Re: World Economic Forum 2009 - 2012

you're thinking around the corner.

I don't see food or civil unrest as a major issue.
Nor do they. Well, except 3.)
The points as stated are bad enough on their own.
If they occur.

But it's just reflecting the general mood.
Pandemic was stylish in 2006, assetprice collapse
in 2009, government debt in 2011.
Not very scientific, IMO.

 

[gsgs]

Re: World Economic Forum 2009 - 2012

Re: World Economic Forum 2009 - 2012

2013:
http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GlobalRisks_Report_2013.pdf

old thread 2006-2008:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=14996



pandemic is now often meant in the context of
antibiotic resistant bacteria


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
major systemic financial failure
water supply crisis
chronic fiscal imbalances
rising greenhouse gas emissions
severe income disparity
failure of climate change adaptions
extreme volatility in energy and agriculture prices

vulnerability to pandemics is 40th in likelyhood and 20th in impact out of 50

----------------------------------------------
The Global Risks Perception Survey was conducted in
September 2012. Over 1,000 experts responded to evaluate 50
global risks from five categories – economic, environmental,
geopolitical, societal and technological. For each global risk,
survey respondents were asked, “On a scale from 1 to 5, how
likely is this risk to occur over the next 10 years?”, and “If it were
to occur, how big would you rate the impact of this risk?”
----------------------------------------------

earlier they had probabilities and $ , now a scale from 1 to 5 --> trend to less
accuracy, less message, less transparency

 

[gsgs]

Re: World Economic Forum 2009 - 2013

Global risk report 2014
http://www.zurich.com/internet/main/sitecollectiondocuments/insight/global-risks-report-2014.pdf

see the evil copyright notice on page 2
risk from increasing copyright

risk figure on page 16 : compare it with the years before
do your own work - apparently they don't want the gsgs to publish it for you


fiscal crisis
water crisis
climate change
unemployment and underemployment
extreme weather events
income disparity


pandemic is 14th on impact and 25th on likelyhood out of 30
next to liquidity crisis and global governance failure

antibiotic resistant bacteria is 17th in impact and 12th in likelyhood

----------------------
they have a list of top5 since 2007 on page 17
that "asset price collaps", biggest risk in impact and likelyhood of 2008-2010,
which I never understood, is no longer listed. They stopped talking about it.
Is it gone ? Did they realize that falling asset prices is not so bad at all ?