Re: CDC Reports Deaths 196 in One Week
Re: CDC Reports Deaths 196 in One Week
In National Strategic Plan for ED Department (ACEP) their scenario lists a total of 250 deaths by late October - so what's really ahead of us?
[
This scenario is a notional planning scenario based on
available information, within which are certain assumptions
that may change as information becomes more precise. It is
meant to be challenging and realistic, but is not predictive.]
The first cases of novel H1N1 reappear in an
unspecified area of the nation in late September. Early
cases are not recognized as influenza, and will be treated
conservatively, affording the opportunity for transmission
to schoolmates and family.
The vaccine for the novel H1N1 will not be ready for
distribution in large volumes until late October. Vaccine
for the novel H1N1 may require two injections, at least 21-
28 days apart, to stimulate immunity. Immunity will not
be sufficient to protect subjects from infection until two
weeks after the second injection.
Local officials will be hesitant to implement community
mitigation strategies early in an outbreak, especially school
closure so close to the beginning of the school year. The
media will continue to fuel the public sentiment that
health officials over-reacted to the spring wave and are
doing likewise to the fall cases. There will be political
pressure to keep schools open because of large numbers
of workers without “time off” benefits to care for their
children.
The Federal government will not have solutions
in place, such as emergency wage replacement, to mitigate
that pressure. Because of economic pressures and high
value placed on jobs in a weakened economy, workers will
continue to work when sick, exacerbating transmission in
the most contagious stage of their illness.
After a few weeks of the fall wave, the prevalence
in affected parts of the country will increase. The first
few deaths will be reported, some in young individuals.
Emergency departments will begin to see large volumes of
people who are not ill with the flu but are concerned that
they or their children “might have it.” They are requesting
screening and prescriptions for antivirals. Emergency
departments will experience a 150% increase in chief
complaints with respiratory symptoms.
By mid-October, 15,000 cases will be reported across
the country, with hot spots in urban areas that have
employed community mitigation strategies. The highest
prevalence will be among children and young adults,
but during this wave, there will be a 5-fold increase in
mortality, with 250 deaths by late-October, mostly in
school-age children and those in late teens.
The CDC will discover that the current wave of disease
has a higher mortality rate, and some communities will
begin to close schools.
http://www.acep.org/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=45781
