Discussion - N.Y.C. Funeral Director's Meeting

[GennieF]

The Centers for Disease Control has predicted a 2.1 percent to 3.3 percent death rate among those who come down with swine flu this fall, which translates into an additional 52,000 to 86,000 deaths in the city over a three-month period, Kasdan said.

Um, is there a shocked smiley on here? :-O I don't think I can even comment on that!

 

[wotan]

Re: N.Y.C. Funeral Directors meeting

Re: N.Y.C. Funeral Directors meeting

Um, is there a shocked smiley on here? :-O I don't think I can even comment on that!

The Centers for Disease Control has predicted a 2.1 percent to 3.3 percent death rate among those who come down with swine flu this fall, which translates into an additional 52,000 to 86,000 deaths in the city over a three-month period, Kasdan said.

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?It?s mind-boggling,? Kasdan said of the possible death rate. ?Is the CDC right? Who knows ? hopefully not. But you need to be prepared.?

Maybe they meant 0.21-0.33%? That's in line with what might realistically be expected in a bird flu pandemic. Someone has to have gotten that number wrong, or else they do know something they are not letting on...

 

[Blue]

Re: N.Y.C. Funeral Directors meeting

Re: N.Y.C. Funeral Directors meeting

I have written to the reporter asking if she has tried to verify these numbers.

Yes, please let us know what she says. Those numbers cannot be right.
If they are, it's very big news...

 

[wotan]

Re: N.Y.C. Funeral Directors meeting

Re: N.Y.C. Funeral Directors meeting

Yes, please let us know what she says. Those numbers cannot be right.
If they are, it's very big news...

This discussion is now in the deliberation room.

 

[Jmom]

Re: N.Y.C. Funeral Directors meeting

Re: N.Y.C. Funeral Directors meeting

Maybe they meant 0.21-0.33%?

That's unlikely since he also stated the 52,000 to 86,000 deaths to accompany it. He even seemed shocked at the numbers...

 

[Treyfish]

Re: N.Y.C. Funeral Directors meeting

Re: N.Y.C. Funeral Directors meeting

I want this kept in a public room.

 

[wotan]

Re: N.Y.C. Funeral Directors meeting

Re: N.Y.C. Funeral Directors meeting

I want this kept in a public room.

I posted to the deliberation room because at the moment it is hearsay. If I personally get a response then I can post it publicly.

 

[JimO]

Re: N.Y.C. Funeral Directors meeting

Re: N.Y.C. Funeral Directors meeting

Something is awry here. One of several things has apparently happened -

1) The Funeral Directors' are seriously confused.

2) The reporter got the CFRs and the total expected deaths both wrong.

3) The CDC representative was either misquoted or made a mistake.

or

4) The CDC knows something huge that has not been revealed publicly.

I sincerely hope it is 1), 2), or 3) because those numbers translate into 2 to 3 million deaths in the U.S.!

 

[Treyfish]

Re: N.Y.C. Funeral Directors meeting

Re: N.Y.C. Funeral Directors meeting

you will leave this in a public room. If someone has something else to add.. like funeral directors or public officials.. it is a news story as it stands..AND if I want you move one of my storie I will tell you.

 

[wotan]

Re: N.Y.C. Funeral Directors meeting

Re: N.Y.C. Funeral Directors meeting

This article was posted a week ago, and no one saw a need to correct the numbers.

 

[Jmom]

Re: N.Y.C. Funeral Directors meeting

Re: N.Y.C. Funeral Directors meeting

I sincerely hope it is 1), 2), or 3) because those numbers translate into 2 to 3 million deaths in the U.S.!

This number is not that shocking to me... For one, they correspond to some studies of out Mexico and other areas. Second, the way everything else about H1N1 seems to mirror the 1918 pandemic, these numbers are following right in suit.

 

[wotan]

Re: N.Y.C. Funeral Directors meeting

Re: N.Y.C. Funeral Directors meeting

That may be the case....

However this statement in the article jump out at me...

Kasdan said the city medical examiner is already looking into possibly using vacant city buildings to store bodies, and the city has contracted for a unit to be built in Germany that will handle hundreds of bodies.

​

Based on this statement, it would appear from what Kasden is saying, is that the NYC Medical Examiner is looking at places to store bodies. Now that may just be standard operating procedure for worst case planning procedures, but the fact that they already contracted for a unit to be built in Germany to handle hundreds of bodies is interesting.

The reporter is standing by the numbers as written. Kasdan could be off, of course, but apparently the story accurately reports what he said.

 

[Rwilmer]

Re: N.Y.C. Funeral Directors meeting

Re: N.Y.C. Funeral Directors meeting

If someone would like, they can email or call MetFDA and ask Kasden where he got his numbers.

http://www.metfda.org/contact.html

I just dropped him an email.

 

[Treyfish]

Re: N.Y.C. Funeral Directors meeting

Re: N.Y.C. Funeral Directors meeting

Once it gets goin this fall, it wont be goin away for months and things could head south quick. Plus add on the regular death rate for seasonal flu, accidents and the like and these guys will be very busy.

 

[Rwilmer]

Re: N.Y.C. Funeral Directors meeting

Re: N.Y.C. Funeral Directors meeting

I just dropped him an email.

Actually I emailed the executive director Joel A. Dolci, Kasdan's email was not on the contact list. So we will see what Mr dolci says.

 

[Andy2000]

Re: N.Y.C. Funeral Directors meeting

Re: N.Y.C. Funeral Directors meeting

Treyfish, a projection of 50,000 deaths in New York alone? The CDC Pandemic Severity Index goes up to Category 5 (CFR 2.0%) - you can't fault the CDC for modelling different scenarios, maybe Mr. Kasdan simply had a look at the highest category. If the virus mutated would we learn it from Mr. Kasdan or a huge influx of patients at hospitals all around the southern hemisphere?

 

[Rwilmer]

Re: N.Y.C. Funeral Directors meeting

Re: N.Y.C. Funeral Directors meeting

Thanks JimO!

 

[wotan]

Re: N.Y.C. Funeral Directors meeting

Re: N.Y.C. Funeral Directors meeting

I want to reinforce what IOH is pointing out. Right now, the Southern Hemisphere is in the middle of the influenza season and apparently novel H1N1 is the dominant strain. A look at the number of fatalities from some of these countries (e.g. Argentina 400+, Brazil 340+, Chile, 100+) simply doesn't support a high CFR in these countries. So, to re-pose the question, is there some virological data or sequences that suggest a tremendous increase in the CFR when the H1N1 virus returns in the next 60-90 days to the Northern Hemisphere?

How many fatalities do these countries actually confirm in a lab every season?

 

[St Michael]

deleted

 

[St Michael]

Re: N.Y.C. Funeral Directors meeting

Re: N.Y.C. Funeral Directors meeting

I spoke to a local funeral director several weeks ago. He was the only person I've spoken to locally who was well informed about H1N1, including local medical personnel. Regardless of any other profession, these folks seem to be kept in the loop, because they play a real role in disaster preparedness.

The funeral director I spoke to expressed opinions very similar to what is expressed in this article.