Do click on the link at the bottom to find how your state is predicted to fare. A real eye-opener for most people I suspect.
http://www.kiplinger.com/businessresource/summary/archive/2007/Pandemic_Flu_Recession_Trust.html
Pandemic Flu and the Potential for U.S. Economic Recession: A State-by-State Analysis
By The Trust for America's Health
September 2007
The Trust for America's Health
The Trust for America's Health (TFAH) is a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization that seeks to make the prevention of disease a national priority. TFAH estimates that more than 90 million Americans live with chronic disease, which accounts for seven out of every 10 deaths in this country, and argues that the majority of those deaths are preventable.
A pandemic influenza outbreak is inevitable, according to scientific experts. Flu pandemics occur three to four times each century, when a new influenza virus emerges against which people have little to no immunity. The major questions are when the next pandemic will occur, what strain of the virus will be involved and how severe the outbreak will be.
? Once a pandemic flu strain mutates and becomes transmissible among humans, it is expected to spread easily from person to person and cause a worldwide outbreak in a very short time. Experts predict these outbreaks will likely come in a series of "waves" that will last six to eight weeks each.
? The U.S. experienced three flu pandemics in the 20th century. The influenza pandemic of 1918 killed over 675,000 Americans and tens of millions worldwide. Milder pandemic outbreaks in 1957 and 1968 killed over 34,000 in the U.S. and over 700,000 across the globe.
? H5N1 "bird flu" is being monitored as a major threat for potentially becoming the strain that leads to the next human pandemic. Currently, there is no vaccine widely available to protect humans from H5N1 or similar severe strains of the flu. In the absence of a vaccine, response strategies rest on trying to contain the spread of the disease. While some progress has been made toward improving U.S. preparedness for a possible pandemic, major gaps remain, particularly in the ability of hospitals and health care providers to attend to the huge numbers of people who may become sick.
In addition to the possible tragic consequences for human health, a pandemic poses a real threat to the global economy. An outbreak has the potential to impact communities and countries around the world simultaneously. Businesses, government, schools and other sectors could all face serious disruptions. In today's global economy, almost every aspect of commerce relies directly or indirectly on an interconnected worldwide network of workers, products and services. A major shock to this network could have serious negative consequences on trade and commerce throughout the world.
According to analyses by three major financial and economic research institutions, during a severe pandemic flu outbreak, the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) could drop between 4.25% and 6%. A "severe" outbreak is based on the 1918 pandemic, when 30% of the population became ill and 2.5% of those who became ill died. In modern times, this would translate into approximately 90 million Americans becoming ill and roughly 2.25 million deaths. An outbreak of this severity would almost certainly lead to a major economic recession. (In simplified terms, a recession typically occurs when there are two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. In a typical year, real GDP grows at an average rate of 3.5%.)
If everything else is held constant, a severe pandemic could lead the U.S. economy to contract by 2%. According to the Congressional Budget Office, a contraction of this magnitude would be the second worst recession in America since World War II.
In order to further understand how a severe pandemic outbreak could impact the U.S. economy, Trust for America's Health (TFAH) examined the potential financial loss each state could face. Based on assumptions from the three major national analyses, TFAH developed a model to assess the potential impact of a pandemic flu on each state's workforce and how 20 key industry sectors and trade would be affected.
The U.S. economy could lose an estimated $683 billion, according to this model. Overall, this is roughly a 5.5% decline in annual GDP. Nevada could face the highest percent loss to its economy, taking an 8.08% hit (nearly $9 billion), while Maryland could face the lowest proportional amount lost at 5.09% ($12.5 billion). The average loss states could experience is 5.5%. Washington, D.C., could experience a 4.62% ($3.8 billion) loss. The GDP of California, the state with the largest economy, could lose $86.9 billion (5.36%), and Vermont, the state with the smallest economy, could lose over $1.3 billion (5.65%) (based on 2005 dollars).
Drawn from a study by the Trust for America's Health. To read the entire report, including an assessment of the likely economic impact of a pandemic on each state and on various industry sectors, click here.
