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1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

Re: analysis by Frost, Sydenstricker

Re: analysis by Frost, Sydenstricker

does someone want to share his contribution to (pre?)pandemic
research by typing the numbers into computer ?

I already did the Massachusetts, NY, SF, Cleveland data.

The last big table with the US-cities would be useful ,
flu-cases and inhabitants needed. So we can make
urban/rural statistics, which way it spread,
how much delaying did work etc.



monthly deaths from pneumonia/influenza per 1M people in Cleveland 1910-1918
1362,1983,1800,2230,2135,1483,1079, 542, 482, 518, 856,1380,1900
1065,1743,1659,1641,1550,1034, 775, 405, 506, 671, 810,1090, 932
1146,1636,1412,1597,1427,1262, 917, 552, 750, 306, 888,1101,1854
1319,1798,2051,2175,1525,1474,1075, 681, 506, 743,1153,1309,1286
1172,1601,1752,1970,2018,1399, 533, 516, 463, 590, 664,1160,1437
1627,1665,3331,2526,2018,1093, 774, 555, 787, 592,1218,1702,3368
1985,5450,2092,2638,2669,2112, 866, 576, 821, 757,1536,1750,2429
2109,3440,3860,4150,2338,2080,1458, 902, 664, 721,1600,1529,2670
5480,1613,1785,1904,3663,1426, 600, 625, 435, 480,18120,21350,13760
monthly deaths from pneumonia/influenza per 1M people in New York City 1910-1918
2293,3278,3002,3433,3035,2254,1621,1255,1080,1269,1547,2116,3659
2177,3213,3256,3590,3387,2372,1372,1158, 972,1076,1450,1950,2408
1986,2665,2945,2870,2546,2383,1535,1123, 990, 949,1578,1785,2516
1997,2650,3530,3422,2427,2251,1589,1135,1019,1005,1184,1729,2133
1843,2473,2930,3194,2418,2111,1316, 925, 861, 881,1100,1629,2343
2027,2537,2322,3254,3445,2121,1720,1032, 892, 908,1204,1671,3244
1897,4025,2617,2520,2109,1946,1331,1137,1005, 877,1164,1540,2421
1919,3179,3163,2373,2212,2024,1228, 726, 784, 895,1276,1855,2377
6364,3484,2390,5480,4321,2014,1054, 813, 718,35160,3516,12506,5498
monthly deaths from pneumonia/influenza per 1M people in San Francisco 1910-1918
1286,1999,1340,1689,1482,1323,1016,1098,1126, 873,1182,1105,1182
1357,2073,1500,1356, 686, 912,1500, 885, 830,1350,1327,1440,2709
1260,2363,1916,1820,1319, 869, 477, 516, 679, 926, 842,1375,1983
1396,2617,1921,1949,1435,1228, 910, 668, 721, 993,1255,1104,1949
1226,1917,1398,1785,1329,1076, 841, 788, 630,1031, 709, 977,2310
1332,2146,1374,1188,1254,1136,1014, 904,1110,1387,1162,1174,2118
1332,2430,1656,1626,1413,1016, 840, 889, 711, 761, 889,1443,2210
1275,2100,1854,1300,1214,1350, 722, 800, 775,1188,1000,1446,1675
7130,2313,2043,2781,3102,1526,1398, 787, 738,1170,35340,20698,13310


1910.JPG


San Francisco almost always peaks in December, while East coast often have a Feb.,Mar. high.
2 peaks could mean two strains, flu-A and flu-B or 2 different H3s, H3N8, or even H2,H1 ?
The panflu-strain could have been present years before 1918.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Re: analysis by Frost,Sydenstricker

Re: analysis by Frost,Sydenstricker

How interesting, gsgs! Do you mean into an Excel spreadsheet? I don't have time just at the moment, but if no one else gets to it first, I might have time later today (say in 8-10 hours from now). Which table(s) were you thinking of?
 
Re: analysis by Frost,Sydenstricker

Re: analysis by Frost,Sydenstricker

no Excel, just plain text or html. Send email or post.

They have lots of tables, at the moment
I was thinking at the last one with the
cities.

But we also need the inhabitants in 1918.
And the geographical coordinates.
Needn't be 100% exact, not all the cities needed.

So, the names, flu-cases in 1918, flu-deaths in 1918.
The other data should be available somewhere...
 
Re: analysis by Frost,Sydenstricker

Re: analysis by Frost,Sydenstricker

mass.JPG



Code: 
monthly deaths from pneumonia per million people 1887-1916 in Massachusetts
195,167, 19,226,161, 77, 55, 41, 56, 90,148,153
247,251,264,213,164, 80, 55, 40, 62,114, 98,139
179,163,211,198,149, 75, 53, 52, 54,106,132,193
478,177,176,201,127, 85, 62, 48, 50, 94,118,183
206,164,206,251,239,101, 59, 40, 40, 77,138,364
615,252,231,214,170, 83, 54, 42, 68, 85,125,190
273,254,286,331,273,111, 80, 50, 61, 98,143,319
328,199,227,185,149, 85, 51, 51, 68, 82,113,136
191,344,308,209,144, 76, 56, 53, 47,105,134,173
195,207,249,259,187,103, 76, 45, 76,107,127,188
211,249,315,197,152,102, 79, 45, 60,117,131,169
188,171,185,187,157, 66, 60, 48, 56,106,128,210
375,258,206,184,140, 89, 50, 48, 58, 82,132,190
227,211,420,305,176, 87, 53, 43, 53, 62, 99,147
226,266,262,199,139, 77, 34, 34, 57, 91,142,151
157,189,199,158,155, 80, 62, 53, 57,118,145,206
252,258,254,181,168, 82, 70, 45, 46, 77,133,189
226,227,241,212,142, 67, 59, 44, 65, 94,150,195
247,277,236,171,155, 85, 54, 48, 62, 89,158,200
225,219,241,217,149, 51, 62, 50, 60, 94,138,210
255,244,234,183,143, 95, 51, 51, 71, 93,127,269
266,222,211,194,135, 66, 49, 58, 64, 92,124,176
221,200,261,291,160, 97, 51, 50, 54, 89,136,183
241,207,275,233,169, 97, 73, 63, 91,123,170,236
226,271,239,202,169, 72, 67, 51, 67, 90,118,162
198,202,212,164,133, 62, 50, 41, 58, 95,105,199
235,228,249,193,171,107, 62, 54, 67, 83,104,168
229,201,232,204,152, 82, 51, 55, 60,101,126,168
178,193,285,277,136, 66, 71, 58, 60, 88, 98,221
356,255,230,173,140, 74, 53, 41, 59, 76,128,183
monthly deaths from influenza per million people 1887-1916 in Massachusetts
90,5,14,28,14,5,0,0,0,5,10,5,5
51,14,5,5,0,5,0,0,0,5,14,0,5
123,9,9,14,14,5,5,5,0,0,9,0,55
1831,1095,290,143,94,40,36,22,4,18,22,27,40
2374,39,39,100,387,465,157,52,52,52,22,26,1008
4105,2433,704,302,183,110,72,51,17,21,38,68,47
1227,58,70,120,257,207,46,17,12,4,0,46,390
1497,741,316,138,169,40,20,16,8,16,20,16,36
1810,79,450,697,329,111,36,24,8,8,4,24,36
581,93,62,116,105,46,39,15,12,4,27,19,43
1440,82,242,568,250,102,27,15,23,15,27,27,61
856,59,59,156,130,148,37,11,22,7,19,26,182
2072,934,581,218,105,51,29,7,4,7,33,18,84
2527,121,150,920,923,185,68,21,7,11,11,32,78
1894,432,636,408,151,84,46,14,4,21,18,25,77
589,59,87,90,69,73,24,21,14,3,24,45,82
1265,157,308,366,161,82,38,14,10,3,21,34,70
1026,145,206,280,138,78,27,20,7,10,17,34,64
1469,275,458,348,175,86,30,7,7,3,3,20,56
657,113,107,129,78,36,6,19,13,6,16,16,117
1613,361,348,228,104,70,22,3,3,3,19,54,399
1042,448,210,151,86,31,12,6,3,19,15,22,37
716,76,193,230,88,36,24,3,0,3,15,21,27
740,139,101,175,151,53,9,9,0,3,21,35,44
463,87,96,90,79,41,3,9,0,3,12,6,49
693,146,135,106,60,26,20,17,9,9,26,17,123
575,200,76,85,51,34,14,0,17,14,20,25,39
358,75,39,75,64,36,14,6,0,6,3,17,25
634,79,60,98,188,49,16,8,5,8,11,22,87
1450,632,304,167,75,56,32,16,13,5,16,43,89

us1887.JPG
 
Last edited:
Re: analysis by Frost,Sydenstricker

Re: analysis by Frost,Sydenstricker

gsgs said:
no Excel, just plain text or html. Send email or post.

They have lots of tables, at the moment I was thinking at the last one with the cities.

(...)

So, the names, flu-cases in 1918, flu-deaths in 1918.
Click to expand...
Ok -- here's that last table -- influenza cases only (not the pneumonia or the influenza+pneumonia -- I can maybe do those another day if you want them).

Influenza only (not incld. pneumonia or influenza + pneumonia) - 1918

City, State Cases reported,deaths registered,fatalities per 100 cases

Abilene, TX --,14,--
Adams, MS 1722,56,3.3
Akron, OH 4551,630,13.8
Alameda, CA 2783,94,3.4
Alliance, OH --,88,--
Alpena, MI 435,11,2.5
Alton, IL 120094,7.8
Altoona, PA 7807,38,.5
Amarillo, TX --,4,--
Amesbury, MS 18,55,--
Amsterdam, NY 4245,52,1.2
Anacona, MT 626,47,7.5
Anderson, IN 200,10,5
Anderson, SC 400,113,28.3
Ann Arbor, MI 824,--,--
Anniston, AL 1938,9,.5
Appleton, WI 1500,4,.3
Arlington, MS 2384,29,1.2
Asbury Park, NJ 1304,9,.7
Ashville, NC 4744,127,2.7
Ashland, WI 410,64,15.6
Ashtabula, OH 1135,56,4.9
Astoria, OR 2800,--,--
Atlantic City, NJ --,327,--
Attleboro, MS 1042,44,4.2
Auburn, NY 4679,145,3.1
Augusta, ME 493,33,6.7
Aurora, IL 2500,35,1.4
Austin, TX --,--,--
Bakersfield, CA 872,--,--
Bangor, ME 1600,110,6.9
Barre, VT 2649,189,7.1
Baton Rouge, LA --,65,--
Battle Creek, MI 1559,37,2.4
Bay City, MI 3496,212,6.1
Bayonne, NJ 4749,--,--
Beatrice, NE 1537,101,6.6
Beaumont, TX 1,90,--
Bedford, IN 1409,--,--
Belleville, NJ --,--,--
Bellingham, WA 2000,82,4.1
Beloit, WI 3315,120,3.6
Benton Harbor, MI 3000,--,--
Berkeley, CA 4090,146,3.6
Berlin, NH 3449,158,4.6
Beverly, MS 730,19,2.6
Billings, MT --,27,--
Binghamton, NY 3085,229,7.4
Bloomfield, NJ 1213,29,2.4
Bloomington, IN 451,4,.89
Bluefied, WV 1059,--,--
Boone, IA 1649,--,--
Boulder, CO 1803,105,5.8
Braddock, PA 4000,246,6.1
Bradford, PA 796,35,4.4
Bridgeton, NJ 2070,42,2.0
Bristol, CT 1762,74,4.2
Brockton, MA 2625,389,14.8
Brookline, MA 2639,108,4.1
Brownsville, TX --,40,--
Bruswick, GA 4788,16,.33
Burlington, IA --,7,--
Burlington, VT 1810,161,8.9
Butler, PA 11,315,--,--
Butte, MT --,--,--
Cadillac, MI --,17,--
Cairo, IL 1443,108,7.5
Cambridge, OH --,--,--
Canton, IL 3100,70,2.3
Canton, OH --,322,--
Cape Giardeau, MO 1428,28,1.4
Carbondale, PA 893,27,3.0
Carlisle, PA 3161,--,--
Cedar Rapids, IA 1457,93,6.4
Centralia, IL 939,--,--
Chambersburg, PA --,200,--
Champaign, IL --,--,--
Charleroi, PA 2025,--,--
Charleston, WV 2868,228,7.9
Charlotte, NC 3281,201,6.1
Chelsea, MA 1031,329,31.9
Cheyenne, WY 1800,105,5.8
Chicopee, MA 597,7,1.2
Chillicothe, OH 2186,49,2.4
Cicero, IL --,--,--
Cleburne, TX 4275,10,.2
Clinton, IA 1277,--,--
Clinton, MA 2700,72,2.7
Coatesville, PA 2500,121,4.8
Coffeyville, KS 1073,14,1.3
Cohoes, NY --,--,--
Colorado Springs, CO 3310,69,2.1
Columbus, MS --,21,--
Concord, NH 1331,18,1.4
Connellsville, PA --,98,--
Corning, NY --,83,--
Cortland, NY --,--,--
Coshocton, OH 845,--,--
Council Bluff, IA 800,42,5.3
Cranston, RI 552,173,31.3
Cumberland, MD 1893,86,4.5
Danbury, CT 2928,80,2.7
Danvers, MA 1590,15,.9
Danville, IL 1124,180,16
Danville, VA --,48,--
Davenport, IA 4523,--,--
Decatur, IL 1566,13,.8
Denison, TX 4500,12,.3
Dickson City, PA 1158,90,7.8
Dover, NH --,22,--
Dubois, PA --,--,--
Dubuque, IA 2002,82,4.1
Duluth, MN 2666,252,9.5
Dunkirk, NY 1785,39,2.18
Dunmore, PA 1083,--,--
Durham, NC --,17,--
East Chicago, IN 370,169,45.7
East Cleveland, OH 627,--,--
East Hampton, MA 1659,52,3.1
Easton, PA --,62,--
East Orange, NJ 2067,197,9.5
East St. Louis, IL --,54,--
Edwardsville, PA 726,27,3.7
Eau Claire, WI 1914,43,2.2
Elgin, IL 1399,--,--
Elizabeth, NJ 2926,148,5.0
Elmira, NY 3549,127,3.6
El Paso, TX 264,--,--
Elyria, OH 1625,19,1.2
Enfield, CT 600,6,1.0
Englewood, NJ 1078,7,.6
Erie, PA 9514,504,5.3
Escanaba, MI 2500,46,1.8
Eugene, OR 484,--,--
Eureka, CA 2374,72,3
Evanston, IL 2878,54,2
Everett, MA 2259,178,7.9
Everett, WA 3729,84,2.3
Fairmont, WV 4296,82,1.9
Fargo, ND --,--,--
Farrell, PA 420,50,11.9
Findlay, OH --,--,--
Fitchburg, MA 4232,45,1.1
Fond du Lac, WI 500,15,3
Fort Collins, CO 800,--,--
Fort Scott, KS 174,9,5.2
Fort Smith, AK --,160,--
Fort Wayne, IN 2585,39,1.5
Fostoria, OH 1181,14,1.2
Framingham, MA 4804,52,1.1
Frankfort, IN 1618,10,.6
Frederick, MD 1040,26,2.5
Fremont, NB --,8,--
Fremont, OH 720,4,.6
Fresno, CA 5086,87,1.7
Galesburg, IL 3658,75,2.1
Galveston, TX 1728,82,4.7
Gardner, MA 1562,36,2.3
Garfield, NJ 982,16,1.6
Gary, IN 1125,106,9.4
Geneva, NY 1200,44,3.7
Glenn Falls, NY 124,--,--
Gloucester City, NJ 3200,45,1.4
Gloversville, NY --,--,--
Grand Forks, ND 2518,176,7
Grand Island, NB 1066,48,4.5
Granite City, IL --,45,--
Great Falls, MT 301,--,--
Green Bay, WI 1512,104,6.9
Greenfield, MA --,--,--
Greenville, SC 7529,82,1.1
Greenwich, CT 1867,12,.6
Hackensack, NJ 1863,75,4
Hamilton, OH 2479,26,1.5
Hammond, IN --,41,--
Hancock, MI 180,16,8.9
Hannibal, MO --,156,--
Harrisburg, PA --,443,--
Harrison, NJ --,43,--
Hastings, NB 1165,--,--
Hattiesburg, MS 1690,28,1.7
Haverhill, MA 3416,59,1.7
Hazelton, PA 1912,295,15.4
Helena, AK 665,34,5.1
Highland Park, MI 1298,39,3
High Point, NC --,--,--
Hoboken, NJ 512,8,1.6
Holland, MI --,--,--
Holyoke, MA --,291,--
Homestead, PA 1022,--,--
Hoquiam, WA 926,96,10.4
Hornell, NY 2427,70,2.9
Hudson, NY 2300,64,2.8
Huntington, WV --,--,--
Hutchinson, KS 2987,187,6.3
Iola, KS 1221,--,--
Ironwood, MI 849,67,7.9
Irvington, NJ 1159,15,1.3
Ishpeming, MI --,--,--
Ithaca, NY 2421,68,2.8
Jackson, MI 3729,59,1.6
Jacksonville, FL 5878,390,6.6
Jacksonville, IL 2025,93,4.6
Jamestown, NY 4430,51,1.2
Janesville, WI --,21,--
Johnstown, NY 2000,38,1.9
Joplin, MO 3039,--,--
Kalamazoo, MI 3988,144,3.6
Kankakee, IL 1060,42,4
Kearny, NJ 1280,34,2.7
Keene, NH 964,93,9.5
Kenosha, WI 2296,76,3.3
Kewanee, IL --,7,--
Kingston, NY 7896,169,2.1
Knoxville, TN 13,652,--,--
Kokomo, IN 233,18,7.7
Lackawanna, NY 1474,29,2
La Crosse, WI --,62,--
La Fayette, IN --,--,--
Lake Charles, LA 4856,20,.4
Lakewood, OH 800,20,2.5
Lancaster, OH --,--,--
Lancaster, PA 8037,348,4.3
Lansford, PA 326,12,3.7
La Salle, IL 1781,19,1.1
Latrobe, PA 1200,--,--
Lawrence, KS 2478,12,.5
Leavenworth, KS 1401,31,2.2
Leominster, MA 1437,56,3.9
Lewiston, ME --,29,--
Lexington, KY 1486,99,6.7
Lima, OH --,13,--
Lincoln, NB 4721,263,5.6
Little Falls, NY 46,--,--
Little Rock, AK 8420,8,.1
Logansport, IN 3023,--,--
Long Beach, CA 3160,113,3.6
Long Branch, NJ 380,7,1.8
Lorain, OH 5193,5,.1
Ludington, MI 228,3,1.3
McKeesport, PA 1046,60,5.7
Macon, GA 4927,25,.5
Madison, WI 399,234,58.6
Mahanoy City, PA 821,--,--
Malden, MA --,--,--
Machester, NH --,434,--
Manistee, MI 738,4,.5
Manitowoc, WI 4000,4,.1
Mansfield, OH 1580,27,1.7
Marinette, WI 893,22,2.5
Marion, IN 1291,40,3.1
Marion, OH 2031,30,1.5
Marlboro, MA 732,58,7.9
Marquette, MI 528,30,5.7
Marshall, TX --,70,--
Martins Ferry, OH 300,50,16.7
Mason City, IA 1827,--,--
Massillon, OH 883,39,4.4
Matton, IL --,25,--
Maywood, IL 1016,--,--
Meadville, PA 3269,15,.5
Medford, MA 901,54,6
Medordd, OR 506,2,.4
Melrose, MA 550,52,9.5
Menominee, MI 388,31,8
Middletown, NY 1159,37,3.2
Middletown, OH 2000,130,6.5
Milford, MA --,22,--
Mishawak, IN --,23,--
Missoula, MT 2100,139,6.6
Mobile, AL 1389,240,17.3
Moline, IL 2008,161,8
Monmouth, IL 1285,4,.3
Monroe, LA 400,30,7.5
Montclaire, NJ 2312,64,2.8
Montgomery, AL 1557,164,10.5
Morganstown, WV 2539,--,--
Morristown, NJ 766,9,1.2
Moundsville, WV --,--,--
Mount Vernon, NY 3109,69,2.2
Mount Vernon, OH 700,7,1
Muncie, IN 800,30,4.9
Muscatine, IA --,--,--
Muskogee, OK 708,--,--
Nashna, NH --,91,--
Natick, MA 1623,--,--
Newark, OH 6793,61,.9
New Britain, CT 6445,212,3.3
New Brunswick, NJ 7168,--,--
Newburgh, NY 1552,43,2.8
Newburyport, MA 385,42,10.9
Newcastle, IN 408,--,--
New Castle, PA 2801,212,7.6
New London 1653,42,2.5
Newport, KY 1500,236,15.7
Newport News, VA 4618,222,4.8
Newport, RI --,65,--
New Rochelle, NY 1500,42,2.8
Newton, MA 5967,199,3.3
Niagara Falls, NY 6828,376,5.5
Norfolk, VA 8585,32,.4
Norristown, PA --,--,--
North Adams, MA 1328,27,2
Northampton, MA 1659,55,3.3
North Attleboro, MA 605,--,--
North Braddock, PA 2801,29,1
Northbridge, MA 4500,17,.4
North Little Rock, AK 1388,21,1.5
North Tonawanda, NY 1787,89,5
Norwalk, CT 2500,88,3.5
Norwich, CT --,65,--
Norwood, OH 1400,--,--
Oak Park, IL 1467,13,9
Ogden, UT 5624,232,4.1
Oil City, PA 2720,--,--
Olean, NY 4637,78,1.7
Oneonta, NY 1450,14,1
Oshkosh, WI 2330,71,3
Ossining, NY 1700,14,.8
Paducah, KY 4800,--,--
Parkersburg, WV 1022,57,5.6
Pasadena, CA 2455,72,29.3
Passaic, NY 3231,65,2
Pawtucket, RI --,81,--
Peabody, MA 462,43,9.3
Peekskill, NY 1250,84,6.7
Pekin, IL 1200,8,66.7
Peoria, IL 7260,346,4.8
Perth Amboy, NJ 484,41,8.5
Peru, IL 975,30,3.1
Petersburg, VA --,192,--
Phoenixville, PA --,153,--
Piqua, OH 4307,22,.5
Pittsfield, MA 2943,--,--
Pittston, PA 718,--,--
Plainfield, NJ 2508,--,--
Plattsburg, NY 465,91,19.6
Plymouth, MA 1071,35,3.3
Plymouth, PA 1273,--,--
Pocatello, ID 246,60,24.4
Pontiac, MI 2568,103,4
Port Chester, NY 2373,122,5.1
Portland, ME 6065,352,5.8
Portsmouth, NH 4000,15,.4
Portsmouth, OH 2792,48,1.7
Portsmouth, VA 5662,80,1.4
Poughkeepsie, NY --,--,--
Punxsutawney, PA 1200,44,3.7
Quincy, IL 2909,40,1.4
Quincy, MA 861,184,21.4
Rahway, NJ --,--,--
Raleigh, NC 3055,169,5.5
Redlands, CA 834,12,1.4
Reno, NV 619,--,--
Richmond, IN 749,31,4.1
Riverside, CA 2591,4,.2
Roanoke, VA 6788,190,2.8
Rockford, IL --,13,--
Rocky Mount, NC 4000,52,1.3
Rome, GA --,110,--
Rome, NY 1991,71,3.6
Rutland, VT 899,7,.8
Sacramento, CA 4517,279,6.2
St. Charles, MO 684,14,2
St. Cloud, MN --,20,--
St. Joseph, MO 3910,93,2.4
Salem, MA 905,47,5.2
Salem, OR 631,12,1.9
Salina, KS --,--,--
San Angelo, TX
San Bernardino, CA --,--,--
San Diego, CA 4392,332,7.5
Sandusky, OH 2513,6,.2
Sanford, ME 2800,30,1.1
Santa Ana, CA 1053,8,.8
Santa Barbara, CA 1754,14,.8
Santa Cruz, CA 939,17,1.8
Saratoga Springs, NY 1295,65,5
Saugus, MA --,27,--
Sault Ste. Marie, MI 883,9,1
Selma, AL 993,89,9
Shawnee, OK 8689,15,.2
Sheboygan, WI 1646,87,.5
Shelbyville, IN 2000,38,1.9
Sioux Falls, SD 1868,88,4.7
Somerville, MA 2474,206,8.3
South Bend, IN --,--,--
Southbridge, MA --,49,--
Spartanburg, SC --,7,--
Springfield, IL --,--,--
Springfield, MO --,278,--
Springfield, OH --,167,--
Stamford, CT 2151,110,5.1
Staunton, VA --,8,--
Steelton, PA --,125,--
Steubenville, OH --,--,--
Stillwater, MN --,7,--
Stockton, CA 7098,85,1.2
Streator, IL --,116,--
Sunbury, PA 735,--,--
Superior, WI 1520,39,2.6
Tamaqua, PA 2500,29,1.2
Taunton, MA 3787,237,6.3
Terre Haute, IN 2445,36,1.5
Tiffin, OH 389,2,.5
Traverse City, MI 161,20,12.4
Troy, NY 5000,146,2.9
Tulsa, OK 665,--,--
Tyler, TX 1407,7,.5
Union, NJ 179,--,--
Urbana, IL 600,3,.5
Utica, NY 3642,330,9.1
Vallejo, CA 3000,211,7
Vancouver, WA 2163,10,.5
Waltham, MA 2335,240,10.3
Warren, OH 1305,121,9.3
Warren, PA 1457,43,3
Washington, PA 3524,--,--
Waterbury, CT 6182,657,10.6
Waterloo, IA 2112,--,--
Watertown, MA 454,6,1.3
Watertown, NY --,252,--
Waterville, ME 825,--,--
Waussau, WI 2100,81,3.9
Webster, MA 442,31,7.0
West Chester, PA --,--,--
Westfield, MA 1724,108,6.3
West Hoboken, NJ 1136,25,2.2
West New York, NJ 783,66,8.4
West Orange, NJ 1408,16,1.1
Weymouth, MA 260,46,17.7
Wheeling, WV --,--,--
White Plains, NY 3023,75,2.5
Wichita, KS 5345,300,5.6
Wilmington, DE 217,217,--
Wilmington, NC 2893,33,1.1
Winchester, MA 1212,26,2.1
Winona, MN --,71,--
Winston Salem, NC --,244,--
Winthrop, MA 1296,5,.4
Woburn, MA 567,27,4.8
Yakima, WA --,120,--
York, PA 7500,250,3.3
Zanesville, OH --,17,--
 

Attachments

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Re: analysis by Frost, Sydenstricker

Re: analysis by Frost, Sydenstricker

Some city populations from the 1910 U.S. census -- the closest census to 1918 that was taken before that pandemic (the next one was 1920):

Akron city, OH........... 69,067 (1910)
Bayonne city, NJ......... 55,545 (1910)
Brockton city, MA........ 56,878 (1910)
Duluth city MN........... 78,466 (1910)
East St. Louis city, IL.. 58,547 (1910)
Elizabeth city, NJ....... 73,409 (1910)
Erie city, PA............ 66,525 (1910)
Fort Wayne city, IN...... 63,933 (1910)
Harrisburg city, PA...... 64,186 (1910)
Hoboken city, NJ......... 70,324 (1910)
Holyoke city, MA......... 57,730 (1910)
Jacksonville city, FL.... 57,699 (1910)
Manchester city, NH...... 70,063 (1910)
Norfolk city, VA......... 67,452 (1910)
Passaic city, NJ......... 54,773 (1910)
Peoria city, IL.......... 66,950 (1910)
Portland city, ME........ 58,571 (1910)
St. Joseph city, MO...... 77,403 (1910)
Somerville city, MA...... 77,236 (1910)
South Bend city, IN...... 53,684 (1910)
Terre Haute city, IN..... 58,157 (1910)
Troy city, NY............ 76,813 (1910)
Utica city, NY........... 74,419 (1910)
Waterbury city, CT....... 73,141 (1910)

http://www.census.gov/population/documentation/twps0027/tab14.txt
 
Re: analysis by Frost, Sydenstricker

Re: analysis by Frost, Sydenstricker

Some more population figures based on U.S. census data:

Abilene, TX
1910 26,293
1920 24,081
http://recenter.tamu.edu/data/popmd/pm0040.htm

Adams (county), MS
1910 25,265
1920 22,183
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adams_County,_Mississippi#Demographics

Alameda city, CA
1910 23,383
1920 28,806
http://www.abag.ca.gov/abag/overview/datacenter/popdemo/alameda.html

Altoona, PA
1910 108,858
1920 128,334
http://recenter.tamu.edu/data/popmd/pm0280.htm

Amarillo, TX
1910 15,736
1920 20,385
http://recenter.tamu.edu/data/popmd/pm0320.htm

Ann Arbor, MI
1910 110,357
1920 114,809
http://recenter.tamu.edu/data/popmd/pm0440.htm

Anniston, AL
1910 39,115
1920 47,822
http://recenter.tamu.edu/data/popmd/pm0450.htm

Asheville, NC
1910 69,930
1920 84,231
http://recenter.tamu.edu/data/popmd/pm0480.htm

El Paso, TX
1910 52,599
1920 101,877
http://recenter.tamu.edu/data/popmd/pm2320.htm

San Angelo, TX
1910 17,882
1920 15,210
http://recenter.tamu.edu/data/popmd/pm7200.htm

Tyler, TX
1910 41,746
1920 46,769
http://recenter.tamu.edu/data/popmd/pm8640.htm
 
Re: analysis by Frost, Sydenstricker

Re: analysis by Frost, Sydenstricker

hey, thanks !

I also found coordinates of ~2000 US-cities and 1918-population
of ~250 US-cities , I hope the spellings are correct and
I can merge the data.

I also sent email to Calif. state library and will send one to NC-state library.
The data (monthly deaths by city) exists, just not computer readable.

Could be useful to examine seasonality too.
Apparantly San Francisco has milder flu due to better clima,
12?C in winter vs. 0?C at East coast.
Hmm, maybe weather-data for the cities can be collected too...

NC library has other interesting 1918 data too,
see here:

http://statelibrary.dcr.state.nc.us/iss/INFLUENZA/NCInfluenza.htm

click the bars on the left for many further documents from 1918.

e.g. this one:
http://statelibrary.dcr.state.nc.us/iss/INFLUENZA/PDFfiles/USPHR46All.pdf
 
Re: analysis by Frost, Sydenstricker

Re: analysis by Frost, Sydenstricker

gsgs said:
hey, thanks !

I also found coordinates of ~2000 US-cities and 1918-population
of ~250 US-cities , I hope the spellings are correct and
I can merge the data.

I also sent email to Calif. state library and will send one to NC-state library.
The data (monthly deaths by city) exists, just not computer readable.
Click to expand...
Cool! Lemme know if you need more typing/transcribing -- I'm a pretty fast typist. That took me just about an hour, so not so bad. :)
 
Re: analysis by Frost, Sydenstricker

Re: analysis by Frost, Sydenstricker

Theresa42 said:
Cool! Lemme know if you need more typing/transcribing -- I'm a pretty fast typist. That took me just about an hour, so not so bad. :)
Click to expand...


yes, I found some more data, e.g. monthly from 1918,1919
or state - data.

But maybe OCR is possible and let me wait what the library people say,
what I can get...
They definately have deaths from all causes, maybe even weekly ,
that's useful for 1918. But for the other years I want influenza/pneumonia
deaths.




----------------------------------------------


http://statelibrary.dcr.state.nc.us/iss/INFLUENZA/PDFfiles/C340919.pdf#Table10
page 2 , cities - table --###done
page 3f, together with 28f : deaths per state rural vs. cities, influenza and all deaths , 4 numbers per state
page 12-13 , total deaths 1919 by month and city


same for 1918 :
http://statelibrary.dcr.state.nc.us/iss/INFLUENZA/PDFfiles/C340918.pdf#Table10
presumably other years are in the library too

http://statelibrary.dcr.state.nc.us/iss/INFLUENZA/PDFfiles/USPHR47All.pdf
page 6
6 cities, autumn 1918, weekly


http://statelibrary.dcr.state.nc.us/iss/INFLUENZA/PDFfiles/USPHR35All.pdf
page 4f , cases 1920 by city, weekly
page7f , excess influenza by cities, 1918, 12weeks



age and sex and races data not yet considered. Could be useful to determine whether the
virus has changed, how much pre-1918 was similar to 1918 or nowadays H3N2


http://statelibrary.dcr.state.nc.us/iss/INFLUENZA/PDFfiles/USPHR34JuneDec.pdf
page5 , weekly 1918, 13 British cities
page6 , weekly 1918 , 14 European and Indian cities
page13 , weekly 1917,1918 , London,Paris,Dublin


compare with weather data ! Or other weather dependent disease



influenza+pneumonia is preferred, not just influenza.
Some cities include influenza-->pneumonia deaths
in the influenza statistics, some in the pneumonia statistics.
 
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Re: analysis by Frost, Sydenstricker

Re: analysis by Frost, Sydenstricker

OK, there were some errors and my coordinates-data was
bad, but finally I have 398 cities with coordinates,
1918 flu-cases and mortality now.
No weather and population data yet adapted for computer-reading.

As as a first test, see below for 1918-mortality. This probably
has been done before, but the data was not public, now it is.
http://magictour.free.fr/1918x.3


I hope, you can recognize the shape of the USA.
The length of the bars is proportional to the CFR.
Only larger cities with >1000 cases. Madison,WI had
particularly high CFR :399 cases, 234 deaths (error?)

1918g.JPG
 
Re: analysis by Frost, Sydenstricker

Re: analysis by Frost, Sydenstricker

Madison,WI had particularly high CFR :399 cases, 234 deaths (error?)
Click to expand...
Madison is the capital of the state of Wisconsin and there is a large university there (founded in 1848). Maybe either of these, or both, have to do with the high CFR. ??

Also, there was a Camp Randall in Madison -- actually on the university grounds. It was a U.S. Civil War prison camp that was used for training during WWI -- perhaps a lot of soldiers fell ill and died there?:

http://www.secondwi.com/wisconsin_civil_war_campscamp_ba.htm
 
Re: analysis by Frost, Sydenstricker

Re: analysis by Frost, Sydenstricker

only 400 cases in Madison, seems that not many people lived there
in 1918 despite the University and camp.
Princeton did particularly well in 1918, AFAIR.

OK, I typed in the yearly flu-death-rates for 50 cities.



correlation-coefficients *100 of
influenza-deaths per million population in 50 cities for years:

Code: 
     1919 18  17  16  15  14  13  12  11  6-10
---------------------------------------------
1919: --  27  36  19  36  43  45  42  32  36                                        
1918: 27  --  31  49  23  31  28  28  30  33                                         
1917: 36  31  --  57  81  76  69  81  71  68                                        
1916: 19  49  57  --  47  52  60  42  61  53                                         
1915: 36  23  81  47  --  84  76  79  77  74                                        
1914: 43  31  76  52  84  --  84  87  74  83                                        
1913: 45  28  69  60  76  84  --  82  80  85                                         
1912: 42  28  81  42  79  87  82  --  80  86                                        
1911: 32  30  71  61  77  74  80  80  --  82                                        
6-10: 36  33  68  53  74  83  85  86  82  --

all correlations are positive.
1916 correlation with earlier years is lower.
1918 also, while 1918 with 1916 is higher than with other earlier years.
This could indicate, that the 1916 outbreak was a mixture
of H3N8(?) and H1N1 already, so 1918 H1N1 or similar virus
would have been around already in 1916 and the 1916
outbreak was already a change, which was then dramatically
completed in 1918.

Monthly data would be more useful here , also pneumonia+influenza
instead of pneumonia only.
Also maybe comparing with pre-1889 data.
 
Re: analysis by Frost, Sydenstricker

Re: analysis by Frost, Sydenstricker

I FOUND ANOTHER ANALYSIS BY SELWYN D. COLLINS, Ph.D.
(US NAVY)

It has a LOT of charts, which I don't know how to post. Maybe someone could start another thread under Collins name?
It has nice charts for Influenza/pneumonia, 1887-1956:

http://www.history.navy.mil/library/online/influenza_collins.htm

There are 3 kinds of people: those who can post charts & those who can't.​
:( ​
 
Re: analysis by Frost, Sydenstricker

Re: analysis by Frost, Sydenstricker

that took a while to digest.

that was all done without computers ...

they have data since 1862 for each camp, but only yearly.
Presumably there is a lot of travel between the camps, so I'm not
sure, how good the data would be to search for patterns
for specific virus strains.
 
Re: analysis by Frost, Sydenstricker

Re: analysis by Frost, Sydenstricker

One of the charts from Jonesie

I FOUND ANOTHER ANALYSIS BY SELWYN D. COLLINS, Ph.D.
(US NAVY)

It has a LOT of charts, which I don't know how to post. Maybe someone could start another thread under Collins name?
It has nice charts for Influenza/pneumonia, 1887-1956:

http://www.history.navy.mil/library/...za_collins.htm

flu-46.jpg
 
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