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Discussion: Infrastructure Recovery In Between Waves ?

Re: Discussion: Infrastructure Recovery In Between Waves ?

"We really have not thought too far ahead."

You're right, T. Modesto, we have not. Practical solutions for those who live in, for example, NYC, are not the same as those living in Pleasantville, Tennessee.

The Federal Reserve Bank, and the stock exchange, happen to be in NYC...

NYC--and many other big cities--is sort of like the "spine" of our economy / medium of exchange.
 
Re: Discussion: Infrastructure Recovery In Between Waves ?

I think this is a great discussion and some of posts should be copied to the prep threads. I particularly appreciate Jonesie's post about what do to between the waves.
 
Re: Discussion: Infrastructure Recovery In Between Waves ?

Another good place to consider is pawn shops. There is a lot of good stuff in a pawn shop that are not very expensive like bikes and chain saws. Sometimes there are even used generators. Get to know at least 1 or 2 pawn shop brokers well. I don't suggest you use them to confide in regarding your preps but if they know that you are willing to pay cash for some things like bikes, generators they will kep an eye out for you and feel confident that you will give them a quick turn-over sale.

Thrift shops are good places to get some of the cheap extra clothes. Also churches at the end of their flea markets or white elephant sales will often if requested give you a grocery bag ( or bring your own) and for a set price per bag ( my church does it for $5 per bag full) you make out real good with things for the kids a size or two larger than what they are using presently.

I also have a small 'emergency box' of gift items ( no not necessarily items that I have received that I don't want - sorta grin) but small thinking of you gifts that are great when too tired to do the last minute shopping thing of forgot gifts. Since birthdays and holidays will be a part of the time when a pandemic is around, if there is a small dollar gifts that can be shared with family members that will help brighten up the holiday. Or save some of the holiday catalogues and keep them so families can cut out pictures and say this is an IOU for your Christmas gift when we are able to do the shopping for it. That way loved ones know that you are still thinking of them even when not able to do the shopping. Also save the holiday cards and with a hole puncher you can turn them into holiday boxes and for each person make one and then everyone write notes as to their gift from the heart to that person knows that they are loved very much. It could be done for birthdays or for all kinds of pick up the heart days. Right now have a box and instead of throwing out he used gift wrap save it so it can be sued to creatively make things or wrap things and you will not have had to spend any money on the paper - use the savings to get more preps. My guess is that those expressions of love will mean so much more than any flat screen tv will years and decades down the road of life. My sense is we will all have a deeper value and appreciation for life and love gestures when we are in and after this thing is over. Sure hope so.

TM

Jonesie said:
I think the utilities will all be back on line between waves, but I don't think consumer goods will all be readily available. And prices will be out of sight.

Don't count on gasoline being available between waves.
Don't count on anything going back to normal in the short span of time between waves of death.

Which means you might need a bicycle...and a bike trailer...and a good lock for both.
And if you can afford it, buy 2 bikes.

The church rummage sales have used bikes cheap...$10-$20.
I bought 4 old bikes this summer and 1 used bike trailer. (It hauls 125 lbs.)

And an old rusty bike will be less likely to be stolen, and it will get you where you are going just the same.
And be sure to have extra tires and tubes and a pump for the bike, reflectors and a light if you are going out at night, and a basket,and lubricating oil, and bike tools, & a helmet. And an instruction booklet on how to keep a bike in repair. (It might get a lot more use than we think.)

Taking a friend or 2 along is best, so one or 2 can watch the bikes while the other is shopping.
And ponchos are needed for biking in rainy weather...and wool hunting socks if the weather is cold. And waterproof boots and clothing if walking or biking in the rain.
I have an old folding grocery cart in the event I am left without any wheels.

I am slowly accumulating these items...:(

I am an experienced gardener. I plan on growing mostly root crops, as foragers will most likely raid gardens and pick the beans, tomatoes, squash, etc. But I doubt they will bring a shovel and do any digging..
And I will not plant in rows. I will scatter the plants all together, which will make it look like a weed infestation, more than a well planned garden. So I hope this discourages some thieves. If you are visible from the road, finish your gardening before 7 AM. This is when a lot of folks get up.

And I will pick tomatoes as soon as they get a little yellow on them, as they will ripen indoors. My neighbor had all her red tomatoes stolen this year, 1 by 1, by another neighbor & her daughter.
Grow beets. You can eat the greens. They are very nutritious & good in soups.

I have a large supply of seeds from last year, and plan on buying many packages for giving to the neighbors, should we get a pandemic soon.
I don't think seeds will be available. Seeds 1 or 2 years old will germinate, not all, but most. Lock up your shovels & gardening equipment indoors. They will be stolen.

Most old folks can garden very well, but you might have to turn over the soil and do some planting for them.

And if you can, buy food and other consumer goods NOW.

Food and other supplies will be very expensive after each wave, especially if the un-prepped now start hoarding. I fugure prices will go up as much as 500% during a pandemic. And most items will not be available. Rationing might be the norm.

And there may not be supplies of everything, such as shoes, clothing, batteries, or any other imported item you really need more of. Many of our items are imported, and their reappearance on store shelves is dependant on overseas factories getting back in business again. This may be impossible for many in a short span of time. And some ports may not be operational.
So buy now.

Find out where all the pick-your-own farms are in your area, and get your canning supplies (and books) now.
http://www.pickyourown.org/

(There are a lot more farms than are listed in these websites)
If you have neglected your fruit trees, buy fruit tree spray and fertilizer for them, and get them back into production.
And plant trees, berries, etc. now. It just may be that this pandemic may not get started for a while, which allow your plants to get into production in time.
http://www.starkbros.com/index.jsp

And have a yard sale now. Luxury items will have very little value during and after a pandemic. Turn those unwanted items into cash for preps.
 
Re: Discussion: Infrastructure Recovery In Between Waves ?

AlaskaDenise said:
Jonesie:
your...

Also include a large supply of reusable lids. Thanks to Goatlady for the "reusable" tip. They can be seen at http://canninglids.com/index2.html 3 dozen reg. mouth lids are $13.90 with a lifetime guarantee.

A neighbor planted her food garden within her flower garden. If you looked closely among the roses - you'd see tomatoes.
.

Thanks for the 2 tips. I have quite a few boxes of new regular lids, but will buy some of those re-usable ones too.
Quite a few tall wildflowers growing amongst my scattered veggies might make it look like a wild, weed infested, prairie flower garden. :)
 
Re: Discussion: Infrastructure Recovery In Between Waves ?

Excellent thread. Thank you to all who have contributed.

I've tried thinking up something wise and important to add :D - but there's so much covered already- I think you've all nailed much of what we need to consider. Great job!

What is so hard to discern in advance is the CFR- I think the resulting disruption will have a lot to do with CFR, and how fast the first small disruptions happen, and what the public reaction to them is. Unless we've played our cards right, and informed and prepared the public, I think thats when we may see the "panic" or at least the reaction that officials fear.

Ive been trying to envision just how thats going to play out. I think part of what the thread is about is just how long "changes" will last- when and will we get back to our current cultural "normals"? Will we have periods of "normal" and "near normal" in between waves, or will the first wave be so severe, and cause so much disruption, that the chance to restock and prepare for future waves that everyone (official planners anyway :) )seems to be depending on is not going to happen?

I think that matters a great deal-we're talking the difference between being prepared to SIP or at least withstand a few weeks/months of challenges, compared to a complete paradigm change that ties survival to sustainable self-reliance.

Without knowing (heck of a time for my crystal ball to be in the shop! LOL) I find it hard to reply. If we end up with "normal to near normal" cultural and infrastructure functioning between waves then there really wont be too much difference in life for many folks- although those whose businesses did not survive the first go round, or whose family was affected will have personal adjustmetns to make.

We might see restructuring and I hope to Heaven that we see more people prepare for a second and subsequent wave...which may may our own restocking more expensive and challenging> Speaking of expensive, even in one of the moderate scenarios (weird, Im actually thinking of 1918 as a "moderate" scenario!-now that's scary...) I would anticipate at least a mild recession with changes in current pricing on things- soem may get very dear, others relatively cheap. Can we prepare for that, and how?

If its worse than 1918- well, I think those like Jonesie who have planned for self reliance and prepped with the tools and knowledge to practice it are likely to do better than those with just pantry. The wise an prepared may be canning, growing, hunting and harvesting between waves. Bartering, sellling and storing up like the squirrels. Looking at opportunities and judging possibilities. Licking their wounds and comforting others. Finding a strength and fears they didnt know they had.

But one thing I feel pretty comfortable predicting- those who can look forward, and adapt, will fare better than those who spend all their time focusing on the rear view mirror. There will be way too much of that-and it willbe far too easy a trap to fall into.

"When I was your age...."

Reminds me of a very old Robin Williams routine, where he was telling the grandchildren about how great the word was before the crash....

I think thought, that there are people here that no matter what happens, will be the leaders that help make their homes, families communities better than what they would have been without their strength and planning.
 
Re: Discussion: Infrastructure Recovery In Between Waves ?

But one thing I feel pretty comfortable predicting- those who can look forward, and adapt, will fare better than those who spend all their time focusing on the rear view mirror.

The above is an important point.

For an illustration, we have to look no further than the infamous H5N1. To persist successfully it must adapt to change - a basic law of nature.

We may "recover" to something different than the past.

.
 
Re: Discussion: Infrastructure Recovery In Between Waves ?

Sharpe said:
We talked about the Asian Crisis that began in 1997 in Thailand and spread across Asia and then the rest of the world. One of the dramatic conclusions he is coming to in his thesis is that even if two countries have hardly any apparent economic or political ties, one of them's bankruptcy or default can devastate the other in ways that are almost impossible to predict.

Don't expect any rice to be exported from Asia. It probably will disappear from shelves, and might not be restocked for the duration of the pandemic.
Store it in your unused canning jars ... sugar, beans, and coffee beans also:

DRY HEAT PROCESSING:
http://www.simplyprepared.com/dryheat.htm

Be sure and soften the lid seals in simmering water for at least 15 minutes before capping the hot jars. I use my old used lids for dried things. If a few pop, it is no great loss, I just reseal them again with another used lid..
 
Re: Discussion: Infrastructure Recovery In Between Waves ?

AlaskaDenise said:
I believe Osterholm said it would take 3 years to work it's way through the various waves & establish sufficient herd immunity to bring it to a reasonable slowdown.

Row-row-row-your-boat? Also possibly musical chairs, with the participants being the migratory birds.

.

The severity of the CFR is inversely proportional to the infrastructure fallout and hence the discussion. We just don't know what that three year period will bring or require:speculation is circular like singing the round Row-row-row-your-boat.
 
Re: Discussion: Infrastructure Recovery In Between Waves ?

4-ABBA said:
The Federal Reserve Bank, and the stock exchange, happen to be in NYC...

NYC--and many other big cities--is sort of like the "spine" of our economy / medium of exchange.

For those of you who trade the stock market, and rely on on-line charting services for making trading decisions:
If the internet goes down, you will lose access to your charts. Be sure and make copies of your charts on a weekly basis. (Your present holdings)

And buy chart paper and learn how to post daily highs, lows, closing prices, volume, etc. on this paper...by hand ... with a pencil. :)

And get a big eraser...and a little ruler, so your lines are straight. :)

If you don't do this, you will be at a great disadvantage.

Charting stocks on paper has been used for hundreds of years, and it works just fine.
Just don't ask me where to buy this paper, I don't know anymore. I make copies from my old supply. Perhaps your broker knows.

There is a phone method for obtaining quotes, so contact the company you trade through and learn the touch-tone method used.
Be sure and have an old fashioned touch-tone land line phone...one that does not use an electric plug. They are cheap...$15.

If the commodities market shuts down for any reason, the stock market will remain in a sideways mode for the duration of the shut-down. Don't panic. Don't trade equities during this time. Wait and see. Stay on the fence. Remain in a cash position.

John J. Murphy might have some good books on trading during market crisis.
He is a well known Intermarket Technical Analyst.
I know he has a website also. It certainly bears looking into, especially during a pandemic, when the markets may become turbulent.
Don't allow your financial advisor to churn your account during this time.
 
Re: Discussion: Infrastructure Recovery In Between Waves ?

Jonesie said:
And get a big eraser...and a little ruler, so your lines are straight. :)

If you don't do this, you will be at a great disadvantage.

Might those with big cap stocks need a "big" ruler?
And those who are short, of course will need a _ _ _ _ _ ruler.
Is this the message? Own a lotta rulers and lotsa pencils?

Your thoughts here on the ensuing roaring surges and "choppy waters" are much appreciated. Thx Sharpe:). Can you add more re: the window of time you think will pass before the markets get the message that BF has flown out the window and is heading everywhere? Days?

We watch what happened in Reunion and then India, and there's not a bump in the road over what happened in those places. I suspicion that until the hammer knocks people unconscious in vast droves will the markets consider that something shocking is coming their way. Jeremy said the change will be abrupt. I stand pat with that statement now of long ago.
 
Re: Discussion: Infrastructure Recovery In Between Waves ?

Gnosis said:
The severity of the CFR is inversely proportional to the infrastructure fallout and hence the discussion. We just don't know what that three year period will bring or require:speculation is circular like singing the round Row-row-row-your-boat.

Gnosis -I believe what you meant to say is that the greater the CFR, the greater the infrastructure fallout.
 
Re: Discussion: Infrastructure Recovery In Between Waves ?

Jonesie said:
For those of you who trade the stock market, and rely on on-line charting services for making trading decisions:
If the internet goes down, you will lose access to your charts. Be sure and make copies of your charts on a weekly basis. (Your present holdings)

With a high CFR, there will not be NYSE trading going on--period.

There wont be electricity to the exchange floors. There wont be traders there. There wont be an internet. There wont be brokerage houses. You wont be able to get a price on any stock to quote. Your newspaper will not arrive daily.

It's SYSTEMIC : Cause --> effect ---> cause ---> effect ---> cause ....

This requires a paradigm shift in thinking.

As the BEST prevention against avian flu (both individually and collectibvely) is sheltering in place, this will necessitate business shutting down. If the majority of workers feel that going to work may be a death sentence....who will risk it? To get "paid"? Who will pay the employee if banks are not functioning?

(What consumer credit bureau will try to collect the avalance of overdue bills?)

Raw materials will not be mined. Or shipped. Or processed. Or marketed. Or bought / sold on the wholesale market. What is left in retail will be supplied locally--IF you can find a store open to sell it.

Will there be electricity? Water? Fuel? If the majority of workers feel that going to work may be a death sentence and there is no certainty of getting paid--how can there be?

This does not even consider the 8+ trillion dollars the US Treasury is in debt--to EVERYONE. The USA will be officially bankrupt.

Recovery is going to take a very long time. Our interconnected global market system is a huge web...and strands are going to be cut in many, many places. Many will not be able to be replaced, with loss of workers, raw materials, capital...and "consumer confidence" (that all important universal lubricant.)

Its SYSTEMIC. For a time....things are going to go very locally based.

The only thing I can think of that will "fer sure" keep running without a doubt...are the nuclear powered warships at sea.
 
Re: Discussion: Infrastructure Recovery In Between Waves ?

Whoa.

The U.S. stock exchange is not going to "melt down". There are redundant systems and back-ups.

The U.S. is not bankrupt. The net worth of the United States, which is the sum total of all assets minus total debts, is still positive.

Sheltering-in-place will be combined with responsible social interaction. Persons who have employment should earn that income for their families.

Society will function no matter what the CFR is. Sure, a higher CFR presents more challenges. Do we give up if the CFR is over, say, 50%?

How do you say that to your family? "Sorry Honey, but too many are dying. I am not going to get more food and water for us today."

No one will do this. We will survive. Have you ever tried to hold your breath? Have you felt the ache? The drive to breathe? The will to survive?

Survival instinct is very strong. This instinct and embracing our families, neighbors and communities will enable us to face any CFR.

Again...today.....get offline and call your family and some friends. Tell them about "bird flu". Print the latest Pandemic Plan and hand it to them. Take the initiative and make plans now. Assign duties for accumulating 90 days worth of essential supplies for the group. Maybe one person can get the water. Someone else may have an "in" for other supplies. Decide where to store these supplies. Designate a "safe area" in your home and an area for the person who will be interacting with society.

Create your own village where ever you are.

"This is preeminently the time to speak the truth, the whole truth, frankly and boldly. Nor need we shrink from honestly facing conditions in our country today. This great Nation will endure as it has endured, will revive and will prosper. So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself?nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance."

F.D.Roosevelt, First Inaugural Address

Latest U.S. Pandemic Plan 11/06
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=12844
 
Re: Discussion: Infrastructure Recovery In Between Waves ?

4-ABBA said:
Gnosis -I believe what you meant to say is that the greater the CFR, the greater the infrastructure fallout.
:oops:
 
Re: Discussion: Infrastructure Recovery In Between Waves ?

4-ABBA said:
With a high CFR, there will not be NYSE trading going on--period.

The NYSE is only one of many of equities markets worldwide. Some are larger and don't have a 'trading floor'..
The temporary closing of the NYSE does not sound the death knell for all equities markets. And a closure will not cause the bankruptcy of any government.

The term 'trading sideways' means no or little trading, or price movement.
It usually occurs when the commodities markets shut down. Currencies and raw materials and more are traded in the commodity markets...worldwide...
there are many of them.

When the world commodities & equities markets re-open everything will resume trading with a possible gap either to the upside or downside, depending on the trends and cycles at the stop of trading.
There are many means to trade equities, and if the OTC markets can remain open from someone's home or small office sporadically, then some trading will occur worldwide. There are hundreds of venues for equities.

Commodities markets have been in operation for hundreds of years. They've not been destroyed yet. They are the bigger player in the international markets.

The markets will recover rapidly. You'd be surprised how resilient they really are.
Unfortunately, many minor players will engage in panic selling when the opportunity to trade presents itself, but seasoned traders will profit by the panic.
There are many informative books written on how to profit during unstable market conditions, and many are available at the public library.
This is a good time for a trader to look into this phenomena and plan for it.
Intermarket technical analysis is the name of the game.
 
Last edited:
Re: Discussion: Infrastructure Recovery In Between Waves ?

Jonesie said:
The NYSE is only one of many of equities markets worldwide. Some are larger and don't have a 'trading floor'..
The temporary closing of the NYSE does not ring the death knell for all equities markets. And a closure will not cause the bankruptcy of any government.

The term 'trading sideways' means no or little trading, or price movement.
It usually occurs when the commodities markets shut down. Currencies and raw materials and more are traded in the commodity markets...worldwide...
there are many of them.

When the world commodities & equities markets re-open everything will resume trading with a possible gap either to the upside or downside, depending on the trends and cycles at the stop of trading.
There are many means to trade equities, and if the OTC markets can remain open from someone's home or small office sporadically, then some trading will occur worldwide. There are hundreds of venues for equities.

Commodities markets have been in operation for hundreds of years. They've not been destroyed yet. They are the bigger player in the international markets.

The markets will recover rapidly. You'd be surprised how resilient they really are.
Unfortunately, many minor players will engage in panic selling when the opportunity to trade presents itself, but seasoned traders will profit by the panic.
There are many informative books written on how to profit during unstable market conditions, and many are available at the public library.
This is a good time for a trader to look into this phenomena and plan for it.
Intermarket technical analysis is the name of the game.

It is interesting how a worldwide pandemic with a 60+ % CFR -- which has never happened before in world history is seen as a trading opportunity.

I am shocked into speechlessness.

This pandemic will play itself out in the middle of a modern and continuing (un)holy war also involving oil, money, and world power.

And weapons of mass destruction are being sought. This is the stage that pandemic will enter upon.

Robert Ludlum has never cooked up such a toxic brew.

We are in uncharted, very dangerous waters.

4-ABBA
 
Re: Discussion: Infrastructure Recovery In Between Waves ?

4-ABBA said:
It is interesting how a worldwide pandemic with a 60+ % CFR -- which has never happened before in world history is seen as a trading opportunity.

4-ABBA

Yes ... an opportunity to profit for many. And it will be a loss to others. Markets thrive on chaos.
The pandemic is already factored into many trading decisions as we speak.
I just hope the majority of traders pay particular attention to personal preps as they do their charting and trading.
And those companies in the personal protection equipment line will profit, as will many pharmaceutical companies.
Some people will profit greatly from a pandemic, others will lose money. Many will die.
Life will go on regardless of the CFR, and people will exchange goods, pay taxes, and talk about the weather.
If ancient man had stopped short of inventing the stone ax, we wouldn't have all the problems we have today. Or the comforts.
 
Re: Discussion: Infrastructure Recovery In Between Waves ?

I consider scheming to profit from potential massive tragedy very offensive.


.
 
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