Discussion - Indonesia, ratio of WHO confirmed cases to total suspected cases

[Laidback Al]

Elsewhere for Indonesia, BlueJay has speculated that only about one individual is confirmed by WHO for every twelve suspected cases reported in the news media. 1:12 = 8% of news reported cases are confirmed by WHO as H5N1.

By my count a minimum of 92 individual suspected cases have been reported in Indonesia since June 1, 2006. Of these, 14 have been confirmed by WHO. 14:92 = 15% of media reported cases were eventualy confirmed by WHO. I have not been tracking all of the suspected cases that are quickly identified as negative. So the denominator (92) is probably larger and the ratio of confirmed to unconfirmed (or not bird flu) maybe closer to BlueJay's estimate.

The bottom line is that as soon as the number of WHO confirmed cases starts to rise in relation to the total number cases reported in local Indonesian news report, we need to start worrying.

 

[LMonty]

Re: Discussion - Indonesia, ratio of WHO confirmed cases to total suspected cases

The bottom line is that as soon as the number of WHO confirmed cases starts to rise in relation to the total number cases reported in local Indonesian news report, we need to start worrying.

Al, I'm not sure what the assumptions are you are using-could you please explain further? Why would that matter?

I think I recall some reports that Indonesia wasnt sending all their samples to WHO for confirmation anymore- has that changed? if not, wouldn't that affect the relationship? What criteria are they currently using to submit samples? Only getting a second verification on positives?

 

[Laidback Al]

Re: Discussion - Indonesia, ratio of WHO confirmed cases to total suspected cases

I put too much emphasis on WHO-confirmed.

I think that BlueJay's point is that percent of confirmed (either by WHO or locally in Indonesia) is relatively constant in relation to cases reported in the news media. It may be a subtle indicator, but when the rate of confirmed cases starts to rise (in relation to overall reported cases), we will need to be even more wary of what might happen.

 

[Niko]

Re: Discussion - Indonesia, ratio of WHO confirmed cases to total suspected cases

I put too much emphasis on WHO-confirmed.

I think that BlueJay's point is that percent of confirmed (either by WHO or locally in Indonesia) is relatively constant in relation to cases reported in the news media. It may be a subtle indicator, but when the rate of confirmed cases starts to rise (in relation to overall reported cases), we will need to be even more wary of what might happen.

I tend to agree this could be an indicator. However, if Indonesian officials clamp down on reports to the media or some big disaster or scandal takes eyes off of H5N1 then the potential for the ratio of confirmed/suspects as indicators is voided.