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Modular epitope binding predicts influenza quasispecies dominance and vaccine effectiveness: Application to 2018/19 season

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  • Modular epitope binding predicts influenza quasispecies dominance and vaccine effectiveness: Application to 2018/19 season

    Vaccine. 2019 May 3. pii: S0264-410X(19)30417-7. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2019.03.068. [Epub ahead of print]
    Modular epitope binding predicts influenza quasispecies dominance and vaccine effectiveness: Application to 2018/19 season.

    Bonomo ME1, Kim RY2, Deem MW3.
    Author information

    Abstract

    The modular binding sites on the influenza A(H3N2) hemagglutinin protein are under significant pressure to acquire mutations in order to evade human antibody recognition. Analysis of these hemagglutinin epitopes in the strains circulating during 2017/18 and early 2018/19 identified the emergence of a new antigenic cluster that has grown from 4% of circulating strains to 11%. We regressed our module-based antigenic distance, pepitope, with A(H3N2) vaccine effectiveness from recent studies conducted by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (r2 = 0.92), and we used this to estimate that the 2018/19 vaccines will protect against most circulating A(H3N2) strains. The pEpitope model is useful for A(H3N2) influenza vaccine virus selection and development, and it has the potential to aid national or regional regulatory authorities in making geographically localized decisions.
    Copyright 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.


    KEYWORDS:

    Antigenic distance; Immunity; Mathematical models; Seasonal influenza; Vaccination planning; Vaccine effectiveness

    PMID: 31060950 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2019.03.068
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