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Hum Vaccin Immunother. 2018 Jan 16:0. doi: 10.1080/21645515.2017.1423152. [Epub ahead of print]
Models for predicting the evolution of influenza to inform vaccine strain selection.
Agor JK1, ?zaltın OY2.
Author information
Abstract
Influenza vaccine composition is reviewed before every flu season because influenza viruses constantly evolve through antigenic changes. To inform vaccine updates, laboratories that contribute to the World Health Organization Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System monitor the antigenic phenotypes of circulating viruses all year round. Vaccine strains are selected in anticipation of the upcoming influenza season to allow adequate time for production. A mismatch between vaccine strains and predominant strains in the flu season can significantly reduce vaccine effectiveness. Models for predicting the evolution of influenza based on the relationship of genetic mutations and antigenic characteristics of circulating viruses may inform vaccine strain selection decisions. We review the literature on state-of-the-art tools and prediction methodologies utilized in modeling the evolution of influenza to inform vaccine strain selection. We then discuss areas that are open for improvement and need further research.
KEYWORDS:
antigenic difference; influenza; influenza evolution; influenza vaccine; prediction models; strain selection
PMID: 29337643 DOI: 10.1080/21645515.2017.1423152
Models for predicting the evolution of influenza to inform vaccine strain selection.
Agor JK1, ?zaltın OY2.
Author information
Abstract
Influenza vaccine composition is reviewed before every flu season because influenza viruses constantly evolve through antigenic changes. To inform vaccine updates, laboratories that contribute to the World Health Organization Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System monitor the antigenic phenotypes of circulating viruses all year round. Vaccine strains are selected in anticipation of the upcoming influenza season to allow adequate time for production. A mismatch between vaccine strains and predominant strains in the flu season can significantly reduce vaccine effectiveness. Models for predicting the evolution of influenza based on the relationship of genetic mutations and antigenic characteristics of circulating viruses may inform vaccine strain selection decisions. We review the literature on state-of-the-art tools and prediction methodologies utilized in modeling the evolution of influenza to inform vaccine strain selection. We then discuss areas that are open for improvement and need further research.
KEYWORDS:
antigenic difference; influenza; influenza evolution; influenza vaccine; prediction models; strain selection
PMID: 29337643 DOI: 10.1080/21645515.2017.1423152