PLoS One . Global impact of environmental temperature and BCG vaccination coverage on the transmissibility and fatality rate of COVID-19

[tetano]

PLoS One


. 2020 Oct 22;15(10):e0240710.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0240710. eCollection 2020.
Global impact of environmental temperature and BCG vaccination coverage on the transmissibility and fatality rate of COVID-19


Amit Kumar ¹ , Shubham Misra ¹ , Vivek Verma ¹ , Ramesh K Vishwakarma ² , Vineet Kumar Kamal ³ , Manabesh Nath ¹ , Kiran Prakash ⁴ , Ashish Datt Upadhyay ⁵ , Jitendra Kumar Sahu ⁶



Affiliations

• PMID: 33091086
• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0240710

Abstract

The 2019-Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has had a global impact. The effect of environmental temperature on transmissibility and fatality rate of COVID-19 and protective efficacy of Bacillus Calmette-Gu?rin (BCG) vaccination towards COVID-19 remains ambiguous. Therefore, we explored the global impact of environmental temperature and neonatal BCG vaccination coverage on transmissibility and fatality rate of COVID-19. The COVID-19 data for reported cases, deaths and global temperature were collected from 31st December 2020 to 3rd April 2020 for 67 countries. Temperature data were split into quartiles for all three categories (minimum temperature, maximum temperature and mean temperature). The impact of three types of temperature data and policy of BCG vaccination on COVID-19 infection was determined by applying the multivariable two-level negative binomial regression analysis keeping daily new cases and daily mortality as outcome. The highest number of cases fell in the temperature categories as following: mean temperature in the second quartile (6?C to 10.5?C), median 26, interquartile range (IQR) 237; minimum temperature in the first quartile (-26?C to 1?C), median 23, IQR 173; maximum temperature in the second quartile (10?C to 16?C), median 27.5, IQR 219. For the minimum temperature category, 28% statistically significant lower incidence was noted for new cases from the countries falling in the second quartile (2?C to 6?C) compared with countries falling in the first quartile (-26?C to 1?C) (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0.72, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.57 to 0.93). However, no statistically significant difference in incidence rate was observed for mean temperature categories in comparison to the first quartile. Countries with BCG vaccination policy had 58% less mortality as compared with countries without BCG coverage (IRR 0.42; 95% CI 0.18 to 0.95). Our exploratory study provides evidence that high temperature might not be associated with low transmissibility and countries having neonatal BCG vaccination policy had a low fatality rate of COVID-19.

[kiwibird]

PLoS One


. 2020 Oct 22;15(10):e0240710.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0240710. eCollection 2020.
Global impact of environmental temperature and BCG vaccination coverage on the transmissibility and fatality rate of COVID-19


Amit Kumar ¹ , Shubham Misra ¹ , Vivek Verma ¹ , Ramesh K Vishwakarma ² , Vineet Kumar Kamal ³ , Manabesh Nath ¹ , Kiran Prakash ⁴ , Ashish Datt Upadhyay ⁵ , Jitendra Kumar Sahu ⁶



Affiliations

• PMID: 33091086
• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0240710

Abstract

The 2019-Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has had a global impact. The effect of environmental temperature on transmissibility and fatality rate of COVID-19 and protective efficacy of Bacillus Calmette-Gu?rin (BCG) vaccination towards COVID-19 remains ambiguous. Therefore, we explored the global impact of environmental temperature and neonatal BCG vaccination coverage on transmissibility and fatality rate of COVID-19. The COVID-19 data for reported cases, deaths and global temperature were collected from 31st December 2020 to 3rd April 2020 for 67 countries. Temperature data were split into quartiles for all three categories (minimum temperature, maximum temperature and mean temperature). The impact of three types of temperature data and policy of BCG vaccination on COVID-19 infection was determined by applying the multivariable two-level negative binomial regression analysis keeping daily new cases and daily mortality as outcome. The highest number of cases fell in the temperature categories as following: mean temperature in the second quartile (6?C to 10.5?C), median 26, interquartile range (IQR) 237; minimum temperature in the first quartile (-26?C to 1?C), median 23, IQR 173; maximum temperature in the second quartile (10?C to 16?C), median 27.5, IQR 219. For the minimum temperature category, 28% statistically significant lower incidence was noted for new cases from the countries falling in the second quartile (2?C to 6?C) compared with countries falling in the first quartile (-26?C to 1?C) (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0.72, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.57 to 0.93). However, no statistically significant difference in incidence rate was observed for mean temperature categories in comparison to the first quartile. Countries with BCG vaccination policy had 58% less mortality as compared with countries without BCG coverage (IRR 0.42; 95% CI 0.18 to 0.95). Our exploratory study provides evidence that high temperature might not be associated with low transmissibility and countries having neonatal BCG vaccination policy had a low fatality rate of COVID-19.

http://www.bcgatlas.org/

Very interesting. Just taking an example from the BCG atlas - Portugal has Coronavirus Cases: 112,440 Deaths:2,276. Portugal Poland Hungary Bosnia Croatia mark the deliniation of BCG current (2017) BCG vaccination programs, by country. Compared to the UK which has UK 830,998 cases and 44,571 (from worldometer) Portugal appears to have a much lower death rate.

[kiwibird]

https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/873032-front-immunol-antibody-dependent-enhancement-due-to-original-antigenic-sin-and-the-development-of-sars

Hat tip Tetano

Front Immunol


. 2020 Jun 5;11:1120.
doi: 10.3389/fimmu.2020.01120. eCollection 2020.
Antibody Dependent Enhancement Due to Original Antigenic Sin and the Development of SARS


Walter Fierz ¹ , Brigitte Walz ²



Affiliations

• PMID: 32582200
• PMCID: PMC7291596
• DOI: 10.3389/fimmu.2020.01120

Abstract

Human coronavirus (HCoV) is one of the most common causes of respiratory tract infections throughout the world. Two phenomena observed so far in the development of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic deserve further attention. First, the relative absence of clinical signs of infections in children, second, the early appearance of IgG in certain patients. From the point of view of immune system physiology, such an early rise of specific IgG is expected in secondary immune responses when memory to a cross-reactive antigen is present, usually from an earlier infection with a coronavirus. It is actually typical for the immune system to respond, to what it already knows, a phenomenon that has been observed in many infections with closely related viruses and has been termed "original antigenic sin." The question then arises whether such cross-reactive antibodies are protective or not against the new virus. The worst scenario would be when such cross-reactive memory antibodies to related coronaviruses would not only be non-protective but even enhance infection and the clinical course. Such a phenomenon of antibody dependent enhancement (ADE) has already been described in several viral infections. Thus, the development of IgG against SARS-CoV-2 in the course of COVID-19 might not be a simple sign of viral clearance and developing protection against the virus. On the contrary, due to cross-reaction to related coronavirus strains from earlier infections, in certain patients IgG might enhance clinical progression due to ADE. The patient's viral history of coronavirus infection might be crucial to the development of the current infection with SARS-CoV-2. Furthermore, it poses a note of caution when treating COVID-19 patients with convalescent sera.

A cautionary note.

[kiwibird]

https://www.exeter.ac.uk/news/research/title_821278_en.html

Could BCG vaccine protect against COVID-19? UK recruitment begins


A largescale global trial designed to test the theory that the widely-used BCG vaccine could help protect against COVID-19 will soon recruit healthcare staff and care home workers in the UK.

The University of Exeter is leading the UK arm of the trial, called the ‘BCG vaccination to Reduce the impact of COVID-19 in healthcare workers’ (BRACE) Trial.

The BRACE trial is coordinated by the Murdoch Children’s Research Institute (MCRI) in Melbourne, Australia. The trial has received more than $10M from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation to allow its global expansion. The Peter Sowerby Foundation has contributed funding to support the Exeter trial site.

The UK joins study centres in Australia, the Netherlands, Spain, and Brazil in the largest trial of its kind. Together, the trial will recruit more than 10,000 healthcare staff. Participants will be given either the BCG vaccine (currently given to more than 100 million babies worldwide each year to protect against tuberculosis (TB)) or a placebo injection. In the UK, routine BCG vaccination was stopped in 2005 because of low rates of TB in the general population.

https://www.exeter.ac.uk/ctu/trialportfolio/

BRACE

BCG Vaccination to Reduce the Impact of COVID-19 in Healthcare Workers (BRACE Trial) www.mcri.edu.au/BRACE This exciting Clinical Drug Trial aims to assess the effectiveness of a BCG vaccination vs. Placebo in participants working in healthcare settings. Up to 1000 participants will be recruited into GP surgeries in the Exeter area and randomised to either the intervention or control group. The trial involves blood samples taken at baseline, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months, with a symptom diary to fill in to track symptoms which may be related to SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) infection. The BCG vaccination is a licensed Medicinal Product with a proven safety profile, with non-specific effects that may protect against, or reduce severity / duration of COVID-19. Professor John Campbell