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Infect Dis Model . Tail risks and infectious disease: Influenza mortality in the U.S., 1900-2018

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    Infect Dis Model . Tail risks and infectious disease: Influenza mortality in the U.S., 1900-2018


    Infect Dis Model


    . 2021 Sep 20;6:1135-1143.
    doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2021.09.001. eCollection 2021.
    Tail risks and infectious disease: Influenza mortality in the U.S., 1900-2018


    Michele Campolieti 1



    Affiliations

    Abstract

    I use extreme values theory and data on influenza mortality from the U.S. for 1900 to 2018 to estimate the tail risks of mortality. I find that the distribution for influenza mortality rates is heavy-tailed, which suggests that the tails of the mortality distribution are more informative than the events of high frequency (i.e., years of low mortality). I also discuss the implications of my estimates for risk management and pandemic planning.

    Keywords: Extremes value theory; Generalized Pareto distribution; Heavy-tails; Influenza mortality rates; Tail risks.

    Tags: None
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