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Developing influenza and respiratory syncytial virus activity thresholds for syndromic surveillance in England

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  • Developing influenza and respiratory syncytial virus activity thresholds for syndromic surveillance in England

    Epidemiol Infect. 2019 Jan;147:e163. doi: 10.1017/S0950268819000542.
    Developing influenza and respiratory syncytial virus activity thresholds for syndromic surveillance in England.

    Harcourt SE1, Morbey RA1, Smith GE1, Loveridge P1, Green HK1, Pebody R2, Rutter J3, Yeates FA4, Stuttard G5, Elliot AJ1.
    Author information

    Abstract

    Influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are common causes of respiratory tract infections and place a burden on health services each winter. Systems to describe the timing and intensity of such activity will improve the public health response and deployment of interventions to these pressures. Here we develop early warning and activity intensity thresholds for monitoring influenza and RSV using two novel data sources: general practitioner out-of-hours consultations (GP OOH) and telehealth calls (NHS 111). Moving Epidemic Method (MEM) thresholds were developed for winter 2017-2018. The NHS 111 cold/flu threshold was breached several weeks in advance of other systems. The NHS 111 RSV epidemic threshold was breached in week 41, in advance of RSV laboratory reporting. Combining the use of MEM thresholds with daily monitoring of NHS 111 and GP OOH syndromic surveillance systems provides the potential to alert to threshold breaches in real-time. An advantage of using thresholds across different health systems is the ability to capture a range of healthcare-seeking behaviour, which may reflect differences in disease severity. This study also provides a quantifiable measure of seasonal RSV activity, which contributes to our understanding of RSV activity in advance of the potential introduction of new RSV vaccines.


    KEYWORDS:

    Influenza; moving epidemic method; respiratory syncytial virus; syndromic surveillance; thresholds

    PMID: 31063101 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268819000542
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