Open Forum Infect Dis. 2018 Nov 27;5(12):ofy318. doi: 10.1093/ofid/ofy318. eCollection 2018 Dec.
The Geographic Variation of Surveillance and Zoonotic Spillover Potential of Influenza Viruses in Domestic Poultry and Swine.

Berger KA1,2, Pigott DM3, Tomlinson F1, Godding D1, Maurer-Stroh S4,5, Taye B4,6, Sirota FL4, Han A4,5, Lee RTC4, Gunalan V4, Eisenhaber F4,5, Hay SI3, Russell CA7.
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Avian and swine influenza viruses circulate worldwide and pose threats to both animal and human health. The design of global surveillance strategies is hindered by information gaps on the geospatial variation in virus emergence potential and existing surveillance efforts.

We developed a spatial framework to quantify the geographic variation in outbreak emergence potential based on indices of potential for animal-to-human and secondary human-to-human transmission. We then compared our resultant raster model of variation in emergence potential with the global distribution of recent surveillance efforts from 359105 reports of surveillance activities.

Our framework identified regions of Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe, Central America, and sub-Saharan Africa with high potential for influenza virus spillover. In the last 15 years, however, we found that 78.43% and 49.01% of high-risk areas lacked evidence of influenza virus surveillance in swine and domestic poultry, respectively.

Our work highlights priority areas where improved surveillance and outbreak mitigation could enhance pandemic preparedness strategies.


avian influenza; outbreak; spillover; surveillance; swine influenza

PMID: 30619908 PMCID: PMC6309522 DOI: 10.1093/ofid/ofy318
Free PMC Article