Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Dynamics of the 2004 avian influenza H5N1 outbreak in Thailand: The role of duck farming, sequential model fitting and control

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Dynamics of the 2004 avian influenza H5N1 outbreak in Thailand: The role of duck farming, sequential model fitting and control

    Prev Vet Med. 2018 Nov 1;159:171-181. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2018.09.014. Epub 2018 Sep 19.
    Dynamics of the 2004 avian influenza H5N1 outbreak in Thailand: The role of duck farming, sequential model fitting and control.

    Retkute R1, Jewell CP2, Van Boeckel TP3, Zhang G4, Xiao X4, Thanapongtharm W5, Keeling M6, Gilbert M7, Tildesley MJ6.
    Author information

    Abstract

    The Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) subtype H5N1 virus persists in many countries and has been circulating in poultry, wild birds. In addition, the virus has emerged in other species and frequent zoonotic spillover events indicate that there remains a significant risk to human health. It is crucial to understand the dynamics of the disease in the poultry industry to develop a more comprehensive knowledge of the risks of transmission and to establish a better distribution of resources when implementing control. In this paper, we develop a set of mathematical models that simulate the spread of HPAI H5N1 in the poultry industry in Thailand, utilising data from the 2004 epidemic. The model that incorporates the intensity of duck farming when assessing transmision risk provides the best fit to the spatiotemporal characteristics of the observed outbreak, implying that intensive duck farming drives transmission of HPAI in Thailand. We also extend our models using a sequential model fitting approach to explore the ability of the models to be used in "real time" during novel disease outbreaks. We conclude that, whilst predictions of epidemic size are estimated poorly in the early stages of disease outbreaks, the model can infer the preferred control policy that should be deployed to minimise the impact of the disease.


    KEYWORDS:

    Avian influenza; Disease control; Spatial heterogeneity; Vaccination

    PMID: 30314780 DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2018.09.014
    Free full text
Working...
X