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Anti-phase Synchronization of Influenza A/H1N1 and A/H3N2 in Hong Kong and Countries in the North Temperate Zone

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  • Anti-phase Synchronization of Influenza A/H1N1 and A/H3N2 in Hong Kong and Countries in the North Temperate Zone

    Int J Infect Dis. 2017 Nov 11. pii: S1201-9712(17)30288-6. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2017.11.006. [Epub ahead of print]
    Anti-phase Synchronization of Influenza A/H1N1 and A/H3N2 in Hong Kong and Countries in the North Temperate Zone.

    Chiu APY1, Lin Q1, Tang EYN2, He D3.
    Author information

    Abstract

    OBJECTIVES:

    Influenza affects 10% of the global population annually. Hong Kong is a subtropical city close to the North Temperate Zone (NTZ). Its influenza-associated mortality rates were 27.53, 79.55, 36.94, 48.72 per one million person-years in 2014, 2015, 2016 and January to July 2017 respectively. Our study aims at exploring the temporal patterns of influenza A subtypes both in Hong Kong and the NTZ.
    METHOD:

    Weekly reported cases of Influenza A/H1N1 and A/H3N2 from January 2010 to July 2017 were downloaded from the Centre for Health Protection in HK and the FluNet provided by the World Health Organization. We explored the spatio-temporal patterns of A/H1N1 and A/H3N2 in HK and the NTZ. Anti-phase synchronization between A/H1N1 and A/H3N2 is indicated by a high in A/H1N1 coinciding with a low for A/H3N2, and vice versa.
    RESULTS:

    Anti-phase synchronization is evident both in HK and the NTZ. It was found that A/H3N2 clearly dominated in 2011/12, 2014/15, and 2016/17 influenza seasons.
    CONCLUSIONS:

    Our results are novel in identifying anti-phase synchronization in influenza A subtypes in HK and the NTZ. These findings should inform the public health preparedness of future epidemics of A/H3N2, which are typically more severe than those of A/H1N1.
    Copyright ? 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.


    KEYWORDS:

    Influenza A; anti-phase synchronization; subtype

    PMID: 29138015 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2017.11.006
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