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Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2016 Mar 10;37(3):430-3. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2016.03.029.
[Study on early warning method for influenza epidemic in Gansu province].
[Article in Chinese]
Yang XT1, Liu XF, Meng L, Liu DP, Yu DS, Li HY, Jiang ZY, Zhang H.
Author information
Abstract
OBJECTIVE:
To explore the appropriate early warning method for influenza epidemic in Gansu province.
METHODS:
By using simple control chart, moving percentile method, exponential smoothing method and cumulative sum control chart method, the annual incidence data of influenza-like illness in Gansu province during 2014-2015 were analyzed, and the sensitivities, specificities, positive predictive values, Jorden indexes and Kappa values of the 4 methods were evaluated and compared.
RESULTS:
The 2014-2015 seasonal influenza epidemic occurred in the fiftieth week of 2014 in Gansu, and the epidemic peak lasted for 6 weeks. Cumulative sum control chart method had the best early warning effect with the sensitivity of 66.67% and specificity of 93.48%.
CONCLUSION:
It is feasible to use cumulative sum control chart method to give early warning of influenza epidemic in Gansu.
PMID: 27005552 [PubMed - in process]
[Study on early warning method for influenza epidemic in Gansu province].
[Article in Chinese]
Yang XT1, Liu XF, Meng L, Liu DP, Yu DS, Li HY, Jiang ZY, Zhang H.
Author information
Abstract
OBJECTIVE:
To explore the appropriate early warning method for influenza epidemic in Gansu province.
METHODS:
By using simple control chart, moving percentile method, exponential smoothing method and cumulative sum control chart method, the annual incidence data of influenza-like illness in Gansu province during 2014-2015 were analyzed, and the sensitivities, specificities, positive predictive values, Jorden indexes and Kappa values of the 4 methods were evaluated and compared.
RESULTS:
The 2014-2015 seasonal influenza epidemic occurred in the fiftieth week of 2014 in Gansu, and the epidemic peak lasted for 6 weeks. Cumulative sum control chart method had the best early warning effect with the sensitivity of 66.67% and specificity of 93.48%.
CONCLUSION:
It is feasible to use cumulative sum control chart method to give early warning of influenza epidemic in Gansu.
PMID: 27005552 [PubMed - in process]