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[Epub ahead of print]
Effects of Internal Border Control on
Spread of Pandemic Influenza
James G. Wood,*? Nasim Zamani,? C. Raina MacIntyre,*? and Niels G. Becker?
*National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance of Vaccine Preventable Diseases, Sydney,
Australia; ?The University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia; and ?Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
We investigated the capacity of internal border control to limit influenza spread in an emergent
pandemic in the context of Australia, a country with a low-population density and geopolitical
boundaries that may facilitate restrictions. Mathematical models were used to study the time
delay between epidemics in 2 population centers when travel restrictions were imposed. The
models demonstrated that population size, travel rates, and places where travelers reside can
strongly influence delay. The model simulations suggested that moderate delays in geographic
spread may be possible with stringent restrictions and a low reproduction number, but results will
be sensitive to the reproduction number and timing of restrictions. Model limitations include the
absence of further importations and additional control measures. Internal border control may
have a role in protecting domestic centers early in a pandemic, when importations are sparse.
Our results may be useful for policymakers.
Suggested citation for this article
: Wood JG, Zamani N, MacIntyre CR, Becker NG. Effects
of internal border control on spread of pandemic influenza. Emerg Infect Dis. 2007 Jul;
http://www.cdc.gov/eid/content/13/7/pdfs/06-0740.pdf
hat-tip Mojo.
of internal border control on spread of pandemic influenza. Emerg Infect Dis. 2007 Jul;
http://www.cdc.gov/eid/content/13/7/pdfs/06-0740.pdf
hat-tip Mojo.
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