Influenza as a proportion of pneumonia mortality: United States, 1959-2009

[tetano]

Biodemography Soc Biol. 2013;59(2):178-90. doi: 10.1080/19485565.2013.833816.
Influenza as a proportion of pneumonia mortality: United States, 1959-2009.
Noymer A, Nguyen AM.
Source

a Department of Population Health and Disease Prevention , University of California, Irvine , Irvine , California , USA.
Abstract

As causes of death, influenza and pneumonia are typically analyzed together. We quantify influenza's contribution to the combined pneumonia and influenza mortality time series for the United States, 1959-2009. A key statistic is I/(P + I), the proportion of pneumonia and influenza mortality accounted for by influenza. Year-to-year, I/(P + I) is highly variable and shows long-term decline. Extreme values of I/(P + I) are associated with extreme P + I death rates and vice versa, but I/(P + I) is a weak predictor of P + I mortality overall. Prominence of influenza in the medical news is associated with high I/(P + I). Influenza and pneumonia should be analyzed as a combined cause.

PMID:
24215258
[PubMed - in process]
PMCID:
PMC3827586
[Available on 2014/1/1]

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24215258

[gsgs]

Re: Influenza as a proportion of pneumonia mortality: United States, 1959-2009

> but I/(P + I) is a weak predictor of P + I mortality overall.

surprise. What is meant by "weak predictor" ?
I'd think it's a very good predictor, high correlation