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Epidemics. Indirect transmission and the effect of seasonal pathogen inactivation on infectious disease periodicity
[Source: Epidemics, full page: (LINK). Abstract, edited.]
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Epidemics - Available online 11 January 2013 - In Press, Accepted Manuscript
Indirect transmission and the effect of seasonal pathogen inactivation on infectious disease periodicity
Marguerite Robinson<SUP>a</SUP>,Yannis Drossinos<SUP>a</SUP>, Nikolaos I. Stilianakis<SUP>a</SUP><SUP> </SUP><SUP>b</SUP>
<SUP></SUP>
<SUP>a</SUP> Joint Research Centre, European Commission, I-21027 Ispra (VA),Italy - <SUP>b</SUP> Department of Biometry and Epidemiology, University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Erlangen, Germany
Corresponding author. Present address: Institut Catal? de Ci?ncies del Clima (IC<SUP>3</SUP>), C/ Doctor Trueta 203, 08005 Barcelona, Spain. Tel.: +34 935679977.
Received 24 August 2012 - Revised 19 November 2012 - Accepted 2 January 2013 - Available online 11 January 2013
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2013.01.001
Abstract
The annual occurrence of many infectious diseases remains a constant burden to public health systems. The seasonal patterns in respiratory disease incidence observed in temperate regions have been attributed to the impact of environmental conditions on pathogen survival. A model describing the transmission of an infectious disease by means of a pathogenic state capable of surviving in an environmental reservoir outside of its host organism is presented in this paper. The ratio of pathogen lifespan to the duration of the infectious disease state is found to be a critical parameter in determining disease dynamics. The introduction of a seasonally forced pathogen inactivation rate identifies a time delay between peak pathogen survival and peak disease incidence. The delay is dependent on specific disease parameters and, for influenza, decreases with increasing reproduction number. The observed seasonal oscillations are found to have a period identical to that of the seasonally forced inactivation rate and which is independent of the duration of infection acquired immunity.
Highlights
► A model for indirect disease transmission by a free living pathogen is presented ► The ratio of the pathogen lifespan to the disease infectivity period is important ► The effects of a seasonally forced pathogen inactivation rate were studied ► A time delay exists between peak pathogen survival and peak disease incidence ► The period of oscillation is independent of the duration of acquired immunity
Keywords
Influenza; Seasonality; Indirect transmission; Pathogen inactivation
There are no figures or tables for this document.
Corresponding author. Present address: Institut Catal? de Ci?ncies del Clima (IC<SUP>3</SUP>), C/ Doctor Trueta 203, 08005 Barcelona, Spain. Tel.: +34 935679977.
Copyright ? 2013 Published by Elsevier B.V.
Note to users: Accepted manuscripts are Articles in Press that have been peer reviewed and accepted for publication by the Editorial Board of this journal. They have not yet been copy edited and/or formatted in the journal house style, and may not yet have the full ScienceDirect functionality, e.g., supplementary files may still need to be added, links to references may not resolve yet etc. The text could still change before final publication. Although accepted manuscripts do not have all bibliographic details available yet, they can already be cited using the year of online publication and the DOI, as follows: author(s), article title, journal (year), DOI. Please consult the journal's reference style for the exact appearance of these elements, abbreviation of journal names and use of punctuation. When the final article is assigned to an issue of the journal, the Article in Press version will be removed and the final version will appear in the associated published issue of the journal. The date the article was first made available online will be carried over.
-Indirect transmission and the effect of seasonal pathogen inactivation on infectious disease periodicity
Marguerite Robinson<SUP>a</SUP>,Yannis Drossinos<SUP>a</SUP>, Nikolaos I. Stilianakis<SUP>a</SUP><SUP> </SUP><SUP>b</SUP>
<SUP></SUP>
<SUP>a</SUP> Joint Research Centre, European Commission, I-21027 Ispra (VA),Italy - <SUP>b</SUP> Department of Biometry and Epidemiology, University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Erlangen, Germany
Corresponding author. Present address: Institut Catal? de Ci?ncies del Clima (IC<SUP>3</SUP>), C/ Doctor Trueta 203, 08005 Barcelona, Spain. Tel.: +34 935679977.
Received 24 August 2012 - Revised 19 November 2012 - Accepted 2 January 2013 - Available online 11 January 2013
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2013.01.001
Abstract
The annual occurrence of many infectious diseases remains a constant burden to public health systems. The seasonal patterns in respiratory disease incidence observed in temperate regions have been attributed to the impact of environmental conditions on pathogen survival. A model describing the transmission of an infectious disease by means of a pathogenic state capable of surviving in an environmental reservoir outside of its host organism is presented in this paper. The ratio of pathogen lifespan to the duration of the infectious disease state is found to be a critical parameter in determining disease dynamics. The introduction of a seasonally forced pathogen inactivation rate identifies a time delay between peak pathogen survival and peak disease incidence. The delay is dependent on specific disease parameters and, for influenza, decreases with increasing reproduction number. The observed seasonal oscillations are found to have a period identical to that of the seasonally forced inactivation rate and which is independent of the duration of infection acquired immunity.
Highlights
► A model for indirect disease transmission by a free living pathogen is presented ► The ratio of the pathogen lifespan to the disease infectivity period is important ► The effects of a seasonally forced pathogen inactivation rate were studied ► A time delay exists between peak pathogen survival and peak disease incidence ► The period of oscillation is independent of the duration of acquired immunity
Keywords
Influenza; Seasonality; Indirect transmission; Pathogen inactivation
There are no figures or tables for this document.
Corresponding author. Present address: Institut Catal? de Ci?ncies del Clima (IC<SUP>3</SUP>), C/ Doctor Trueta 203, 08005 Barcelona, Spain. Tel.: +34 935679977.
Copyright ? 2013 Published by Elsevier B.V.
Note to users: Accepted manuscripts are Articles in Press that have been peer reviewed and accepted for publication by the Editorial Board of this journal. They have not yet been copy edited and/or formatted in the journal house style, and may not yet have the full ScienceDirect functionality, e.g., supplementary files may still need to be added, links to references may not resolve yet etc. The text could still change before final publication. Although accepted manuscripts do not have all bibliographic details available yet, they can already be cited using the year of online publication and the DOI, as follows: author(s), article title, journal (year), DOI. Please consult the journal's reference style for the exact appearance of these elements, abbreviation of journal names and use of punctuation. When the final article is assigned to an issue of the journal, the Article in Press version will be removed and the final version will appear in the associated published issue of the journal. The date the article was first made available online will be carried over.
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