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BMC Medicine. Modeling rapidly disseminating infectious disease during mass gatherings

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  • BMC Medicine. Modeling rapidly disseminating infectious disease during mass gatherings

    [Source: BMC Medicine, full text: (LINK). Abstract, edited.]
    Review

    Modeling rapidly disseminating infectious disease during mass gatherings


    Gerardo Chowell, Hiroshi Nishiura and Cecile Viboud

    BMC Medicine 2012, 10:159 doi:10.1186/1741-7015-10-159
    Published: 7 December 2012



    Abstract (provisional)

    We discuss models for rapidly disseminating infectious diseases during mass gatherings (MGs), using influenza as a case study. Recent innovations in modeling and forecasting influenza transmission dynamics at local, regional, and global scales have made influenza a particularly attractive model scenario for MG. We discuss the behavioral, medical, and population factors for modeling MG disease transmission, review existing model formulations, and highlight key data and modeling gaps related to modeling MG disease transmission. We argue that the proposed improvements will help integrate infectious-disease models in MG health contingency plans in the near future, echoing modeling efforts that have helped shape influenza pandemic preparedness plans in recent years.
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