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Risk Anal
. 2026 Jun;46(6):e70271.
doi: 10.1111/risa.70271.
Temporal Analysis of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 in Commercial and Non-Commercial Flocks in the United States; 2022-2025
Mark R Powell 1
Affiliations
The largest highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreak to date in the United States (US) began in early 2022 and is ongoing. The analysis presented here investigates the temporal association observed between reported confirmed detections of H5N1 (cases) in commercial and non-commercial flocks at different spatial and temporal scales. Cross-correlation analysis was performed at the national level and in five states (Minnesota, South Dakota, California, Ohio, and Pennsylvania) representing approximately 60% of commercial cases at daily, weekly, and monthly frequencies. The cross-correlation results provide no support for non-commercial cases serving as a leading indicator (i.e., early warning signal) for commercial cases. In 79 counties with both commercial and non-commercial cases, approximately 65% of the first cases were in commercial flocks. Across the counties, the median arrival time of commercial cases (41 days) preceded the median arrival time of non-commercial cases (199 days). While official reported cases do not completely describe HPAI outbreak dynamics, they represent an authoritative source of information available to firms in the poultry and egg products supply chain. Based on the analysis and results presented here, non-commercial cases did not serve as a leading indicator for commercial cases in the ongoing H5N1 outbreak in the United States.
Keywords: animal diseases; highly pathogenic avian influenza; temporal analysis.
. 2026 Jun;46(6):e70271.
doi: 10.1111/risa.70271.
Temporal Analysis of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 in Commercial and Non-Commercial Flocks in the United States; 2022-2025
Mark R Powell 1
Affiliations
- PMID: 42227147
- DOI: 10.1111/risa.70271
The largest highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreak to date in the United States (US) began in early 2022 and is ongoing. The analysis presented here investigates the temporal association observed between reported confirmed detections of H5N1 (cases) in commercial and non-commercial flocks at different spatial and temporal scales. Cross-correlation analysis was performed at the national level and in five states (Minnesota, South Dakota, California, Ohio, and Pennsylvania) representing approximately 60% of commercial cases at daily, weekly, and monthly frequencies. The cross-correlation results provide no support for non-commercial cases serving as a leading indicator (i.e., early warning signal) for commercial cases. In 79 counties with both commercial and non-commercial cases, approximately 65% of the first cases were in commercial flocks. Across the counties, the median arrival time of commercial cases (41 days) preceded the median arrival time of non-commercial cases (199 days). While official reported cases do not completely describe HPAI outbreak dynamics, they represent an authoritative source of information available to firms in the poultry and egg products supply chain. Based on the analysis and results presented here, non-commercial cases did not serve as a leading indicator for commercial cases in the ongoing H5N1 outbreak in the United States.
Keywords: animal diseases; highly pathogenic avian influenza; temporal analysis.