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Expert warns of misunderstanding behind 1918 flu

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  • #31
    Re: Expert warns of misunderstanding behind 1918 flu

    Originally posted by Jeremy View Post
    Mamabird,

    I tend to find that a virus that kills/incapacitates relatively young and healthy individuals a more serious illness than a virus that attacks the very old/young and those with weakened immune systems.

    Doesn't the target age groups and cases we have seen today already qualify it as more serious than Seasonal Flu?
    Perhaps, because the loss of our young who have the whole world ahead of them with so much opportunity to improve upon the ground laid by their elders, is tragic.

    But to that point, you can track pediatric mortality statistics in the US for example and find that as many as 100 children die in a normal flu season. To my knowledge, this Swine Flu virus could likely cause less pediatric mortality if it retains its current characteristics and continues its current trend.

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    • #32
      Re: Expert warns of misunderstanding behind 1918 flu

      Originally posted by Mamabird View Post
      I don't know of any expert in the field that would disagree that there is the potential for a big mess.

      But is Dr. Schaffner taking a stand that this coming flu season is going to be really ugly? In other words, based on the virus that is circulating today, will it cause more serious illness than Seasonal Flu?

      I have sent him an email.

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      • #33
        Re: Expert warns of misunderstanding behind 1918 flu

        Also, I believe there is some information about hemorrhages in the lungs of some victims of swine flu 2009 that is reminiscent of the 1918 experience.

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        • #34
          Re: Expert warns of misunderstanding behind 1918 flu

          Originally posted by Florida1 View Post
          I have sent him an email.
          Thanks F1. It will be interesting to see if you get a timely response.

          But, you know, to Jeremy's point, we could very well have a mess even if the virus remains relatively mild in terms of its overall virulence and symptoms. The average age of pediatric deaths tends to be pre-school age, and if we do not protect the very young and the virus simply spreads rapidly through the infant population, the law of averages would suggest many more deaths than the normal flu season.

          Clinics and hospitals have been over-run in Southern Hemisphere countries by both the sick and the worried well. I hope in the Northern Hemisphere this season we will reserve the health care for those that are trully in need. It might make a large difference in final outcome.

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          • #35
            Re: Expert warns of misunderstanding behind 1918 flu

            Originally posted by Mamabird View Post
            Perhaps, because the loss of our young who have the whole world ahead of them with so much opportunity to improve upon the ground laid by their elders, is tragic.

            But to that point, you can track pediatric mortality statistics in the US for example and find that as many as 100 children die in a normal flu season. To my knowledge, this Swine Flu virus could likely cause less pediatric mortality if it retains its current characteristics and continues its current trend.
            I thought they were predicting an outbreak similar to 1957, where 70,000 people perished? No?

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            • #36
              Re: Expert warns of misunderstanding behind 1918 flu

              Originally posted by Commonground View Post
              I thought they were predicting an outbreak similar to 1957, where 70,000 people perished? No?
              CG, I'm not certain who "they" is, but to get to 70K deaths, the current Swine Flu virus likely needs to become much more virulent. And please remember that 70K was the deaths in 1957 when the population of the US was only 172 million. You would have to double the death figure to almost 140K based on today's population to reach a 1957-like outcome.

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              • #37
                Re: Expert warns of misunderstanding behind 1918 flu

                Originally posted by Mamabird View Post
                Thanks F1. It will be interesting to see if you get a timely response.

                But, you know, to Jeremy's point, we could very well have a mess even if the virus remains relatively mild in terms of its overall virulence and symptoms. The average age of pediatric deaths tends to be pre-school age, and if we do not protect the very young and the virus simply spreads rapidly through the infant population, the law of averages would suggest many more deaths than the normal flu season.

                Clinics and hospitals have been over-run in Southern Hemisphere countries by both the sick and the worried well. I hope in the Northern Hemisphere this season we will reserve the health care for those that are trully in need. It might make a large difference in final outcome.

                He has agreed to a FluTrackers radio interview on Monday August 17th for an hour.

                Thanks team for such great work!

                Comment


                • #38
                  Re: Expert warns of misunderstanding behind 1918 flu

                  Originally posted by Florida1 View Post
                  He has agreed to a FluTrackers radio interview on Monday August 17th for an hour.

                  Thanks team for such great work!
                  Well, that's what I would categorize as one heck of a timely response. Fantastic news. We will be waiting with baited breath.

                  A real feather in the FT cap to get such an authority to work with the Team.

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Re: Expert warns of misunderstanding behind 1918 flu

                    Originally posted by Florida1 View Post
                    He has agreed to a FluTrackers radio interview on Monday August 17th for an hour.

                    Thanks team for such great work!
                    Congratulations, Sharon.
                    Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence

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