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Comput Math Methods Med. 2019 Feb 7;2019:9248246. doi: 10.1155/2019/9248246. eCollection 2019.
Spatiotemporal Distributions and Dynamics of Human Infections with the A H7N9 Avian Influenza Virus.
Chen Y1, Wen Y1.
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Abstract
In 2013 in mainland China, a novel avian influenza virus H7N9 began to infect humans and had aroused severe fatality in the infected humans, followed by the annual outbreaks. By methods of GIS and kriging interpolation, we get the geographical distributions. We obtain the longitudinal characteristics of these outbreaks based on statistics and diagrams. After these spatiotemporal distributions, an eco-epidemiological model is established and analyzed. In this model, the general incidence functions, the factor of fully killed infected poultry, and the virus in environment are taken into account. Theoretical analysis shows that the endemic will be formed to a large extent once the H7N9 avian influenza virus exists in poultry. On the basis of dynamics, we explore the possible disease control measures by numerical simulations. Simulations indicate that measures of vaccination in poultry and stopping live poultry transactions are the primary choices for disease control in humans, and strengthened inhibition effects and environmental disinfections can effectively control the outbreak.
PMID: 30881481 PMCID: PMC6383426 DOI: 10.1155/2019/9248246
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Spatiotemporal Distributions and Dynamics of Human Infections with the A H7N9 Avian Influenza Virus.
Chen Y1, Wen Y1.
Author information
Abstract
In 2013 in mainland China, a novel avian influenza virus H7N9 began to infect humans and had aroused severe fatality in the infected humans, followed by the annual outbreaks. By methods of GIS and kriging interpolation, we get the geographical distributions. We obtain the longitudinal characteristics of these outbreaks based on statistics and diagrams. After these spatiotemporal distributions, an eco-epidemiological model is established and analyzed. In this model, the general incidence functions, the factor of fully killed infected poultry, and the virus in environment are taken into account. Theoretical analysis shows that the endemic will be formed to a large extent once the H7N9 avian influenza virus exists in poultry. On the basis of dynamics, we explore the possible disease control measures by numerical simulations. Simulations indicate that measures of vaccination in poultry and stopping live poultry transactions are the primary choices for disease control in humans, and strengthened inhibition effects and environmental disinfections can effectively control the outbreak.
PMID: 30881481 PMCID: PMC6383426 DOI: 10.1155/2019/9248246
Free full text
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Text-to-speech function is limited to 200 characters