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J Infect. 2018 Feb 2. pii: S0163-4453(18)30023-9. doi: 10.1016/j.jinf.2017.12.015. [Epub ahead of print]
Contact reductions from live poultry market closures limit the epidemic of human infections with H7N9 influenza.
Teng Y1, Bi D2, Guo X3, Hu D4, Feng D5, Tong Y6.
Author information
Abstract
An early steep increase in the number of humans infected with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus was observed in China, raising great public concern domestically and internationally. Little is known about the dynamics of the transmission contacts between poultry and human populations, although such understanding is essential for developing effective strategies to control this zoonosis. In this study, we evaluated the effects of contact reductions from live poultry markets (LPMs) closures on the transmission of H7N9 virus during epidemics in Guangdong Province, China. A mathematical model of the poultry-to-person transmission dynamics of H7N9 virus was constructed. The parameters in the model were estimated from publicly available data on confirmed cases of human infection and information on LPMs closure during 2013-2017. By fitting the model, we measured the time-dependent contact quantity of the susceptible population to LPMs. The results showed that periodic intervention strategies can greatly reduce the magnitude of outbreaks, and the earlier interventions for policy are implemented, the smaller is the outbreak. The control efforts for LPMs to decrease the contact quantity are critical in preventing epidemics in the long term. This model should provide important insights for the development of a national intervention strategy for the long-term control of avian influenza virus epidemics.
KEYWORDS:
Contact quantity; H7N9 influenza; Live poultry markets; Mathematical model; Poultry-to-person transmission
PMID: 29406153 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinf.2017.12.015
Contact reductions from live poultry market closures limit the epidemic of human infections with H7N9 influenza.
Teng Y1, Bi D2, Guo X3, Hu D4, Feng D5, Tong Y6.
Author information
Abstract
An early steep increase in the number of humans infected with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus was observed in China, raising great public concern domestically and internationally. Little is known about the dynamics of the transmission contacts between poultry and human populations, although such understanding is essential for developing effective strategies to control this zoonosis. In this study, we evaluated the effects of contact reductions from live poultry markets (LPMs) closures on the transmission of H7N9 virus during epidemics in Guangdong Province, China. A mathematical model of the poultry-to-person transmission dynamics of H7N9 virus was constructed. The parameters in the model were estimated from publicly available data on confirmed cases of human infection and information on LPMs closure during 2013-2017. By fitting the model, we measured the time-dependent contact quantity of the susceptible population to LPMs. The results showed that periodic intervention strategies can greatly reduce the magnitude of outbreaks, and the earlier interventions for policy are implemented, the smaller is the outbreak. The control efforts for LPMs to decrease the contact quantity are critical in preventing epidemics in the long term. This model should provide important insights for the development of a national intervention strategy for the long-term control of avian influenza virus epidemics.
KEYWORDS:
Contact quantity; H7N9 influenza; Live poultry markets; Mathematical model; Poultry-to-person transmission
PMID: 29406153 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinf.2017.12.015