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A Severe Seasonal Influenza Epidemic During 2017–2018 in China After the 2009 Pandemic Influenza

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  • A Severe Seasonal Influenza Epidemic During 2017–2018 in China After the 2009 Pandemic Influenza

    Infectious Microbes & Diseases: September 2019 - Volume 1 - Issue 1 - p 20-26 doi: 10.1097/IM9.0000000000000006

    A Severe Seasonal Influenza Epidemic During 2017–2018 in China After the 2009 Pandemic Influenza A Modeling Study Fu, Xiaofang#; Zhou, Yuqing#; Wu, Jie; Liu, Xiaoxiao; Ding, Cheng; Huang, Chenyang; Deng, Min; Shi, Dongyan; Wang, Chencheng; Xu, Kaijin; Ren, Jingjing; Ruan, Bing; Li, Lanjuan; Yang, Shigui
    Section Editor(s): Veen., Stijn van der

    ...
    The reported incidence and fatality of influenza were 1,913,698 and 395, respectively, with an average yearly reported incidence rate of 19.21 per 100,000 and an average reported case fatality ratio (CFR) of 0.21 per 1000 from January 2011 to February 2018....

    From September 2017 to February 2018, the reported incidence and fatality of influenza were 606,734 and 117, respectively, with an average yearly reported incidence rate of 87.29 per 100,000 and an averaged reported CFR of 0.19 per 1000...

    In conclusion, it was the first severe seasonal influenza epidemic during the period of September 2017 to February 2018 in China since the 2009–2010 pandemic with the R0 of 1.53...

    regression model and susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model were built to understand the characteristics and processes of the epidemic. The reported incidence of influenza was 1,913,698 from January 2011 to February 2018, with an average-yearly-reported-incidence-rate of 19.21 per 100,000. However, there had been a substantial nationwide epidemic of influenza after September 2017, when the average yearly reported incidence rate was 87.29 per 100,000 and an annual percentage change of 48.1%. The hemagglutinin genes of most influenza A (H1N1 and H3N2) viruses from the period of the epidemic had lower homology to those before August 2017. All the hemagglutinin of the recommended A (H3N2, H1N1) and B (Victoria) viruses for vaccines 2017/2018 had low matches with the epidemic viruses. The basic reproduction number was 1.53. The vaccination benefit was linearly related to vaccination coverage, while the quarantine measure had only significantly benefited when over 60% of the quarantined population. The most severe epidemic of influenza in China since 2011 occurred during the period from September 2017 to February 2018. Compared to quarantine, influenza vaccination is more effective way to prevent influenza, and strategies to increase vaccination coverage should be taken for the prevention of severe epidemics of influenza....



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