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1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

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  • #31
    Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

    what with all the strange weather we have been having lately,has anyone got any idea what the weather was doing before the 1918 pandemic hit....?

    Comment


    • #32
      Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

      here for New Zealand, non-Maori population since 1876.
      You can see how females did better in the 1918 pandemic.
      What happened in NZ 1934-1942 ?




      data from:
      Human Mortality Database. University of California, Berkeley (USA), and Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (Germany). Available at www.mortality.org or www.humanmortality.de (data downloaded on [date]).
      the original Swedish sources are listed here:http://magictour.free.fr/nz1.pdf
      I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
      my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

      Comment


      • #33
        Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

        Originally posted by gsgs
        here for New Zealand, non-Maori population since 1876.
        You can see how females did better in the 1918 pandemic.
        What happened in NZ 1934-1942 ?
        Geoffrey Rice in his book Black November

        Suggested that for some reason the men did not catch the first mild wave and had no immunity to the second wave

        Comment


        • #34
          Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

          here for England and Wales since 1841.
          Peaks for males in WW1 1914-1918 and WW2 1942-1945.
          Almost no Spanish flu in Britain for females !!!
          Just a bad year, but nothing special.
          See also, how males are catching up to females the last 2 decades.
          Pandemic in 1890-1893 and epidemic in 1899-1900 and in 1940




          data from:
          Human Mortality Database. University of California, Berkeley (USA), and Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (Germany). Available at www.mortality.org or www.humanmortality.de (data downloaded on [date]).
          the original Swedish sources are listed here:http://magictour.free.fr/ew1.pdf
          I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
          my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

          Comment


          • #35
            Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

            1918

            columns are: (some numbers estimated by me)
            urban/rural white/colored
            total population in registration area
            of those died in 1918
            of those dies from influenza in 1918
            of those died from pneumonia in 1918
            of those died from influenza or pneumonia in 1918
            death rate per 1000 population
            influenza death rate per 1000 population
            pneumonia death rate per 1000 population
            P+I death rate per 1000 population


            Code:
            UW:37970000  679702 103456 123803 227259  17.90 2.72 3.26  5.99
            UC: 2980000   61485   6127  12798  18925  20.63 2.06 4.29  6.35
            RW:33960000  579863 103381  70276 173657  17.07 3.04 2.07  5.11
            RC: 2670000   83066  15156   9343  24499  31.11 5.68 3.50  9.18
            U :40950000  741187 109583 136601 246184  18.10 2.68 3.34  6.01
            R :36630000  662929 118537  79619 198156  18.10 3.24 2.17  5.41
            W :71930000 1259565 206837 194079 400916  17.51 2.88 2.70  5.57
            C : 5650000  144551  21283  22141  43424  25.58 3.77 3.92  7.69
            ---------------------------------------------------


            1923 , as for a normal year

            columns are: (some numbers estimated by me)
            urban/rural white/colored
            total population in registration area
            of those died in 1923
            of those dies from influenza in 1923
            of those died from pneumonia in 1923
            of those died from influenza or pneumonia in 1923
            death rate per 1000 population
            influenza death rate per 1000 population
            pneumonia death rate per 1000 population
            P+I death rate per 1000 population

            Code:
            UW:46100000  537487 12318 50123  62441  11.65 0.27 1.09 1.35
            UC: 3910000   64493  2025  8813  10838  16.49 0.52 2.25 2.77
            RW:42100000  490614 24099 38844  62943  11.65 0.57 0.92 1.50
            RC: 4940000   81471  4231  6385  10616  16.49 0.86 1.29 2.15
            U :50010000  601980 14343 58936  73279  12.04 0.29 1.18 1.47
            R :47040000  572085 28330 45229  73559  12.16 0.60 0.96 1.56
            W :88200000 1028101 36417 88967 125384  11.66 0.41 1.01 1.42
            C : 8850000  145964  6256 15198  21454  16.49 0.71 1.72 2.42
            Last edited by gsgs; July 27, 2007, 11:17 PM.
            I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
            my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

            Comment


            • #36
              Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

              I can get the weekly data from the 122 US-cities since 1994
              from here:
              http://iier.isciii.es/mmwr/mmwrpvol.html
              but only as a .gif picture since 2000, so it's not computer-readable.

              does someone know, whether they can be OCRed from batch-file ?

              about 350 .gif files...
              e.g.:
              http://iier.isciii.es/mmwr/preview/m...es/m052mt4.gif

              they have weekly deaths from P+I and weekly deaths from all causes
              for 5 age-groups.

              that would be useful, if these data were available
              in computer-readable form for the public.

              with graphs for the 122 cities and statistics, in which cities
              the peaks are earlier and from where to where the wave
              travels. Maybe later we could also compare with data for health-measures,
              colored population, weather-data, air-traffic, vaccination rates...
              Last edited by gsgs; October 11, 2007, 09:17 AM.
              I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
              my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

              Comment


              • #37
                Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

                lots of intersting graphs and figures about 1918 here:
                http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/dq/pdf/flu_figures.pdf



                legend:


                Supplemental Figures for Non-pharmaceutical Interventions
                Implemented by US Cities During the 1918-1919 Influenza Pandemic


                Figures 1-4. Scatterplots of public health response time (PHRT)
                by time to first peak, PHRT by magnitude of first peak,
                PHRT by excess P&I mortality rate, and total NPI-days by
                excess P&I mortality rate for 43 U S cities, September 8,
                1918-February 22, 1919.
                Figure 1. PHRT by time to first peak.
                Figure 2. PHRT by magnitude of first peak.
                Figure 3. PHRT by excess P&I mortality.
                Figure 4. Total NPI-days by excess P&I mortality.
                Figure 5. Aggregate weekly excess death rates for 43 U S cities
                by region (East, Midwest, West), September 8, 1918-February 22, 1919.

                Figures 6-48. Weekly excess death rates, NPIs implemented and when,
                date of first case, date excess death rate first exceeds twice the
                baseline death rate, and date first NPI implemented for 43 U S cities,
                September 8, 1918-February 22, 1919.

                Figure 49. Other NPIs implemented for 43 U S cities,
                September 8, 1918-February 22, 1919.
                Figures 50-52. Scatterplots of total excess P&I mortality
                comparing successive waves of the pandemic, Spring, 1918:
                January, 1918 - April, 1918; Fall, 1918: September, 1918 -
                December, 1918; Winter, 1919: January, 1919 - April, 1919;
                and Winter, 1920: January,
                1920 - April, 1920 for 43 U S study cities.
                Figure 50. Fall, 1918 by Spring, 1918.
                Figure 51. Winter, 1919 by Fall, 1918.
                Figure 52. Winter, 1920 by Winter, 1919.
                Figures 53-59. Scatterplots of total excess P&I mortality by population,
                population density, gender distribution, percentage of population
                under 5 years, 15 to 40 years, and over 65
                years of age for 43 U S cities, September 8, 1918 - February 22, 1919.
                Figure 53. Total excess P&I mortality by population.
                Figure 54. Total excess P&I mortality by population density.
                Figure 55. Total excess P&I mortality by percentage male.
                Figure 56. Total excess P&I mortality by percentage under age 5 years.
                Figure 57. Total excess P&I mortality by percentage age 15 to 40 years.
                Figure 58. Total excess P&I mortality by percentage over age 65 years.
                Figure 59. Total excess P&I mortality by total percentage under
                age 5 years, 15 to 40 years, and over 65 years.
                I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                Comment


                • #38
                  Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

                  some interesting tables about 1918 here:

                  http://research.stlouisfed.org/publi...03/Garrett.pdf



                  table 1:
                  US-state,
                  1910 polulation
                  area
                  population density
                  1915 mortality rate
                  1918 mortality rate
                  1919 mortality rate

                  table 2:
                  correlation of density,area with mortality

                  table 3:
                  same as table 1 but for 50 big US-cities

                  table 4:
                  compare city-mortality with state average

                  table 5:
                  mortality 1915 and 1918 by race and city

                  table 6:
                  urban,race proportion of US-population 1890-2000

                  table 7:
                  influenza mortalities 1915-1920 in 7 selected cities

                  table 8:
                  urban vs. rural mortalities 1915-1920 in 5 selected states



                  table 1 , 27 states , correlation coefficients * 100

                  Code:
                        2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9
                  ------------------------------------
                    2  -- - 3  21  25   3 - 7 -24 - 1   2 
                    3 - 3  -- -56 -56 -25 -18  35  25   3 
                    4  21 -56  --  63  44   2 - 9 -44   4 
                    5  25 -56  63  --  69  31 -19 -69   5 
                    6   3 -25  44  69  --  43  55 -98   6 
                    7 - 7 -18   2  31  43  --  23 -50   7 
                    8 -24  35 - 9 -19  55  23  -- -55   8 
                    9 - 1  25 -44 -69 -98 -50 -55  --   9 
                  ------------------------------------
                        2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9
                  1:name
                  2:population 1910
                  3:area
                  4:density
                  5:1915 mortality
                  6:1918 mortality
                  7:1919 mortality
                  8:1918/1915
                  9:1918 rank

                  so, the worse hit in 1915, the worse in 1918.
                  But also, the worse in 1918, the worse in 1919.
                  Immunity from wave 2 was less important than state-predisposition.




                  table 2 , 49 cities

                  Code:
                        2   5   6   7   8   9
                  ----------------------------
                    2  --  21   0   6 -24   2   2 
                    5  21  --  76  58 -39 -76   5 
                    6   0  76  --  61  24 -95   6 
                    7   6  58  61  --   6 -51   7 
                    8 -24 -39  24   6  -- -21   8 
                    9   2 -76 -95 -51 -21  --   9 
                  ----------------------------------------
                        2   5   6   7   8   9
                  1:name
                  2:population 1910
                  5:mortality rate in 1915
                  6:mortality rate in 1918
                  7:mortality rate in 1919
                  8:1918/1915
                  9:rank 1918

                  same for the cities, but to lower degree for 1919
                  I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                  my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

                    pneumonia vs. influenza deaths in London

                    I found data from London here:
                    http://influenza.sph.unimelb.edu.au/.../P1_chap_2.pdf

                    (see mixin's thread about history of influenza)
                    http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=76460

                    table on pages 4,5 typed into the computer manually :-(
                    They also have Bronchitis which was significant in the elderly and phthisis which
                    was less related to influenza.
                    there are also other tables and text trying to explore the connections of the diseases.

                    You can see, how the waves began with a rise in pneumonia deaths.
                    This is maybe because early in the waves the doctors didn't yet know that a wave
                    was coming so they were more reluctant to diagnose influenza.
                    Or it could be that pneumonia-deaths were relatively more common in the first weeks.

                    You can also see, that the wave2-influenza peek is highest in the 5-20 years group,
                    where it also declines fastest. The older the people, the later in the wave they died
                    and also the more died in wave 3 as compared to wave 2.

                    I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                    my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      I discovered I can take pictures and upload some of these charts.
                      Ireland deaths from flu and pneumonia in 1892, 1900 and 1918 from gs's link.

                      The salvage of human life ought to be placed above barter and exchange ~ Louis Harris, 1918

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

                        1890 is the solid line, 1891 is the broken lines and 1892 is the dotted line.

                        The salvage of human life ought to be placed above barter and exchange ~ Louis Harris, 1918

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

                          yes, I had seen that too.
                          The question arose at fluwikie, how the recent paper showing
                          that most deaths in 1918 arose from bacterial pneumonia
                          is compatible with the "W-shape", the unique characteristics
                          of 1918-flu killing prevalently the young people <40 of age.

                          Most of the dead young people 5-20 were given influenza
                          as cause of death rather than pneumonia.
                          Of cause, when people die from H1N1-influenza, what else can be
                          the direct cause than pneumonia ? (besides cyanosis)
                          I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                          my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

                            hi gsgs, I don't understand what you mean :

                            Of cause, when people die from H1N1-influenza, what else can be
                            the direct cause than pneumonia ? (besides cyanosis)

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

                              I mean, people 5-45 years old won't usually die in 1918 from influenza
                              without also having bacterial pneumonia, (I think)
                              Or cyanosis/cytokene storm.

                              So I assume the doctor often had the choice to write
                              "influenza" or "pneumonia" as cause of death.
                              I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                              my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

                                life expectancy Sweden by year of death



                                {1773 famine , 1809 war , 1857 influenza? , 1918 influenza pandemic}


                                hard to imagine that this stable trend since 1950 should suddenly reverse now...
                                I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                                my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                                Comment

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