1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

[gsgs]

Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

yes, I had seen that too.
The question arose at fluwikie, how the recent paper showing
that most deaths in 1918 arose from bacterial pneumonia
is compatible with the "W-shape", the unique characteristics
of 1918-flu killing prevalently the young people <40 of age.

Most of the dead young people 5-20 were given influenza
as cause of death rather than pneumonia.
Of cause, when people die from H1N1-influenza, what else can be
the direct cause than pneumonia ? (besides cyanosis)

[mixin]

Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

1890 is the solid line, 1891 is the broken lines and 1892 is the dotted line.

[mixin]

I discovered I can take pictures and upload some of these charts.
Ireland deaths from flu and pneumonia in 1892, 1900 and 1918 from gs's link.

[gsgs]

Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

pneumonia vs. influenza deaths in London

I found data from London here:

http://influenza.sph.unimelb.edu.au/data/S0001/chapters/P1_chap_2.pdf

(see mixin's thread about history of influenza)

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=76460

table on pages 4,5 typed into the computer manually :-(
They also have Bronchitis which was significant in the elderly and phthisis which
was less related to influenza.
there are also other tables and text trying to explore the connections of the diseases.

You can see, how the waves began with a rise in pneumonia deaths.
This is maybe because early in the waves the doctors didn't yet know that a wave
was coming so they were more reluctant to diagnose influenza.
Or it could be that pneumonia-deaths were relatively more common in the first weeks.

You can also see, that the wave2-influenza peek is highest in the 5-20 years group,
where it also declines fastest. The older the people, the later in the wave they died
and also the more died in wave 3 as compared to wave 2.

[gsgs]

Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

some interesting tables about 1918 here:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/08/03/Garrett.pdf

table 1:
US-state,
1910 polulation
area
population density
1915 mortality rate
1918 mortality rate
1919 mortality rate

table 2:
correlation of density,area with mortality

table 3:
same as table 1 but for 50 big US-cities

table 4:
compare city-mortality with state average

table 5:
mortality 1915 and 1918 by race and city

table 6:
urban,race proportion of US-population 1890-2000

table 7:
influenza mortalities 1915-1920 in 7 selected cities

table 8:
urban vs. rural mortalities 1915-1920 in 5 selected states



table 1 , 27 states , correlation coefficients * 100

      2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9
------------------------------------
  2  -- - 3  21  25   3 - 7 -24 - 1   2 
  3 - 3  -- -56 -56 -25 -18  35  25   3 
  4  21 -56  --  63  44   2 - 9 -44   4 
  5  25 -56  63  --  69  31 -19 -69   5 
  6   3 -25  44  69  --  43  55 -98   6 
  7 - 7 -18   2  31  43  --  23 -50   7 
  8 -24  35 - 9 -19  55  23  -- -55   8 
  9 - 1  25 -44 -69 -98 -50 -55  --   9 
------------------------------------
      2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9

1:name
2:population 1910
3:area
4:density
5:1915 mortality
6:1918 mortality
7:1919 mortality
8:1918/1915
9:1918 rank

so, the worse hit in 1915, the worse in 1918.
But also, the worse in 1918, the worse in 1919.
Immunity from wave 2 was less important than state-predisposition.




table 2 , 49 cities

      2   5   6   7   8   9
----------------------------
  2  --  21   0   6 -24   2   2 
  5  21  --  76  58 -39 -76   5 
  6   0  76  --  61  24 -95   6 
  7   6  58  61  --   6 -51   7 
  8 -24 -39  24   6  -- -21   8 
  9   2 -76 -95 -51 -21  --   9 
----------------------------------------
      2   5   6   7   8   9

1:name
2:population 1910
5:mortality rate in 1915
6:mortality rate in 1918
7:mortality rate in 1919
8:1918/1915
9:rank 1918

same for the cities, but to lower degree for 1919

[gsgs]

Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

lots of intersting graphs and figures about 1918 here:

http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/dq/pdf/flu_figures.pdf

legend:


Supplemental Figures for Non-pharmaceutical Interventions
Implemented by US Cities During the 1918-1919 Influenza Pandemic


Figures 1-4. Scatterplots of public health response time (PHRT)
by time to first peak, PHRT by magnitude of first peak,
PHRT by excess P&I mortality rate, and total NPI-days by
excess P&I mortality rate for 43 U S cities, September 8,
1918-February 22, 1919.
Figure 1. PHRT by time to first peak.
Figure 2. PHRT by magnitude of first peak.
Figure 3. PHRT by excess P&I mortality.
Figure 4. Total NPI-days by excess P&I mortality.
Figure 5. Aggregate weekly excess death rates for 43 U S cities
by region (East, Midwest, West), September 8, 1918-February 22, 1919.

Figures 6-48. Weekly excess death rates, NPIs implemented and when,
date of first case, date excess death rate first exceeds twice the
baseline death rate, and date first NPI implemented for 43 U S cities,
September 8, 1918-February 22, 1919.

Figure 49. Other NPIs implemented for 43 U S cities,
September 8, 1918-February 22, 1919.
Figures 50-52. Scatterplots of total excess P&I mortality
comparing successive waves of the pandemic, Spring, 1918:
January, 1918 - April, 1918; Fall, 1918: September, 1918 -
December, 1918; Winter, 1919: January, 1919 - April, 1919;
and Winter, 1920: January,
1920 - April, 1920 for 43 U S study cities.
Figure 50. Fall, 1918 by Spring, 1918.
Figure 51. Winter, 1919 by Fall, 1918.
Figure 52. Winter, 1920 by Winter, 1919.
Figures 53-59. Scatterplots of total excess P&I mortality by population,
population density, gender distribution, percentage of population
under 5 years, 15 to 40 years, and over 65
years of age for 43 U S cities, September 8, 1918 - February 22, 1919.
Figure 53. Total excess P&I mortality by population.
Figure 54. Total excess P&I mortality by population density.
Figure 55. Total excess P&I mortality by percentage male.
Figure 56. Total excess P&I mortality by percentage under age 5 years.
Figure 57. Total excess P&I mortality by percentage age 15 to 40 years.
Figure 58. Total excess P&I mortality by percentage over age 65 years.
Figure 59. Total excess P&I mortality by total percentage under
age 5 years, 15 to 40 years, and over 65 years.

[gsgs]

Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

I can get the weekly data from the 122 US-cities since 1994
from here:

http://iier.isciii.es/mmwr/mmwrpvol.html

but only as a .gif picture since 2000, so it's not computer-readable.

does someone know, whether they can be OCRed from batch-file ?

about 350 .gif files...
e.g.:

http://iier.isciii.es/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/figures/m052mt4.gif

they have weekly deaths from P+I and weekly deaths from all causes
for 5 age-groups.

that would be useful, if these data were available
in computer-readable form for the public.

with graphs for the 122 cities and statistics, in which cities
the peaks are earlier and from where to where the wave
travels. Maybe later we could also compare with data for health-measures,
colored population, weather-data, air-traffic, vaccination rates...

[gsgs]

Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

1918

columns are: (some numbers estimated by me)
urban/rural white/colored
total population in registration area
of those died in 1918
of those dies from influenza in 1918
of those died from pneumonia in 1918
of those died from influenza or pneumonia in 1918
death rate per 1000 population
influenza death rate per 1000 population
pneumonia death rate per 1000 population
P+I death rate per 1000 population

UW:37970000  679702 103456 123803 227259  17.90 2.72 3.26  5.99
UC: 2980000   61485   6127  12798  18925  20.63 2.06 4.29  6.35
RW:33960000  579863 103381  70276 173657  17.07 3.04 2.07  5.11
RC: 2670000   83066  15156   9343  24499  31.11 5.68 3.50  9.18
U :40950000  741187 109583 136601 246184  18.10 2.68 3.34  6.01
R :36630000  662929 118537  79619 198156  18.10 3.24 2.17  5.41
W :71930000 1259565 206837 194079 400916  17.51 2.88 2.70  5.57
C : 5650000  144551  21283  22141  43424  25.58 3.77 3.92  7.69

---------------------------------------------------


1923 , as for a normal year

columns are: (some numbers estimated by me)
urban/rural white/colored
total population in registration area
of those died in 1923
of those dies from influenza in 1923
of those died from pneumonia in 1923
of those died from influenza or pneumonia in 1923
death rate per 1000 population
influenza death rate per 1000 population
pneumonia death rate per 1000 population
P+I death rate per 1000 population

UW:46100000  537487 12318 50123  62441  11.65 0.27 1.09 1.35
UC: 3910000   64493  2025  8813  10838  16.49 0.52 2.25 2.77
RW:42100000  490614 24099 38844  62943  11.65 0.57 0.92 1.50
RC: 4940000   81471  4231  6385  10616  16.49 0.86 1.29 2.15
U :50010000  601980 14343 58936  73279  12.04 0.29 1.18 1.47
R :47040000  572085 28330 45229  73559  12.16 0.60 0.96 1.56
W :88200000 1028101 36417 88967 125384  11.66 0.41 1.01 1.42
C : 8850000  145964  6256 15198  21454  16.49 0.71 1.72 2.42

[gsgs]

Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

here for England and Wales since 1841.
Peaks for males in WW1 1914-1918 and WW2 1942-1945.
Almost no Spanish flu in Britain for females !!!
Just a bad year, but nothing special.
See also, how males are catching up to females the last 2 decades.
Pandemic in 1890-1893 and epidemic in 1899-1900 and in 1940




data from:
Human Mortality Database. University of California, Berkeley (USA), and Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (Germany). Available at www.mortality.org or www.humanmortality.de (data downloaded on [date]).
the original Swedish sources are listed here:http://magictour.free.fr/ew1.pdf

[Sally Furniss]

Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

here for New Zealand, non-Maori population since 1876.
You can see how females did better in the 1918 pandemic.
What happened in NZ 1934-1942 ?

Geoffrey Rice in his book Black November

Suggested that for some reason the men did not catch the first mild wave and had no immunity to the second wave

[gsgs]

Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

here for New Zealand, non-Maori population since 1876.
You can see how females did better in the 1918 pandemic.
What happened in NZ 1934-1942 ?




data from:
Human Mortality Database. University of California, Berkeley (USA), and Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (Germany). Available at www.mortality.org or www.humanmortality.de (data downloaded on [date]).
the original Swedish sources are listed here:http://magictour.free.fr/nz1.pdf

[vinny]

Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

what with all the strange weather we have been having lately,has anyone got any idea what the weather was doing before the 1918 pandemic hit....?

[gsgs]

Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

I found mortality data from Sweden since 1751 !

There was crop failure in 1771 and 1772 and famine 1772,1773
which was 4 times as severe in Sweden as Spanish flu in 1918 !

Finnish war and epidemics in 1808,1809.
Data before 1860 is less reliable, see:

These events were much worse for Sweden than Spanish influenza
in 1918 with excess deaths of 0.66&#37; (USA:0.39%).

Excess mortality also in 1892f and 1899f , this could be due
to influenza pandemic 1890-1893 and 1899-1901, I'm not sure.

>It reached Sweden in late November 1889 and swept through the country
>during the following months, mainly following the major transport routes,
>especially the railways. The morbidity was described to be between 50 and 60%
>with an increase in mortality during the actual pandemic weeks of 250% of the average.

however total mortality in Sweden in 1889,1890 was low.

I couldn't find the reason for the excess deaths in Sweden in 1857.

1783 was the eruption of Laki-volcano which resulted in bad
crops in Europe the following years.





(children below 5 years are excluded because of high mortality in 18th and 19th century)


data from:
Human Mortality Database. University of California, Berkeley (USA), and Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (Germany). Available at www.mortality.org or www.humanmortality.de (data downloaded on [date]).
the original Swedish sources are listed here:

http://magictour.free.fr/sw1.pdf

[gsgs]

Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

US-death rates by month 1900-1940, total, Jan,..,Dec.




you can see that deathrates in May,June,..,Nov. are pretty stable except 1918.
The seasonal changes in Dec,Jan,Feb,Mar,Apr are most due to influenza.
One Polio(?)-outbreak in summer 1911.

Also, the virus before 1918 caused a bit less predictable changes
and the deathrate went down until 1918, from 1918-1940 it decreased more slowly.

[gsgs]

Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

infectious period for influenza is given as 4.1 days,
average latent period 2 days. First symptoms appear in average
after 2 days. So typically(average) you would be infectious from
onset of symptoms and then for 4 days.