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Conference discusses area prep for swine flu
By SUE GUINN LEGG
Published August 27th, 2009
Since the first wave of sickness and death that came with the global outbreak of the H1N1 influenza virus, public health experts have documented a lull in the pandemic and are now working feverishly to prepare for the anticipated ?next wave.?
?We have to assume that 30 percent of the population, that?s 30 percent of everybody, will get sick,? Jim Bean, emergency response coordinator for the Sullivan County Health Department, said Wednesday during a pandemic preparedness session with health and human services agencies serving the homeless in Northeast Tennessee.
?In Northeast Tennessee, that?s 146,683 people, almost 150,000, or (close to) the entire population of Sullivan County,? he said in contemplating worstcase scenarios.
More than 73,000 East Tennesseans will need outpatient care, Bean said. If the outbreak is moderate, 1,500 will be hospitalized or, if it is severe, 16,000. Fifteen percent of those hospitalized will require intensive care, roughly 220 patients if the spread is moderate and 2,500 if it?s a severe. And 0.2 percent of those infected will die, or 223 area residents in a moderate outbreak and 2,900 if the situation is severe.
With cases of human-to-human transmission occurring since March and 40 countries involved so far, the World Health Organization has declared the H1N1 at ?Pandemic Level 6,? a level Bean said experts previously considered the worst-case scenario.
?We?re there,? he said. ?But we have not seen the chaos everyone expected. Right now, most cases are mild. You have typical (flu) symptoms with maybe some stomach things thrown in. And the situation in Mexico is slowing down.?
Because the status of pandemic and recommendations to address it change very rapidly and because the Internet is loaded with self-described experts offering their opinions as fact, Bean encouraged agency representatives to look exclusively to the federal Centers for Disease Control and Tennessee Health Department Web sites ? www. CDC.gov and http://health.state. tn.us ? for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
Bean said the health department?s current emphasis is H1N1 prevention rather than treatment, although the department has engaged a limited network of ?sentinel? private health care providers and hospitals designated to test flu patients for H1N1 to provide a daily snapshot of what is happening with the virus. Tennessee also is assisting the federal government with the storage of about 25 percent of the strategic national stockpile of medicines and medical supplies that could be in short supply if subsequent waves of N1H1 are severe.
?Basically we?re telling people to do what our mothers told us to do, good hand washing, good hygiene, covering our coughs and covering our sneezes, limiting our (physical) contact with others, not touching your face, staying home when we are sick and seeking medical care and not trying to fight our way through it.?
?It?s is the responsibility of individuals to protect themselves and their community,? Bean said.
As for the future, Bean said, ?Cases are going to continue. The numbers are going to change. We may see drastic increases then things will drop back down. Much depends on the weather, if it?s warm and people are outside or if it?s cold and we?re all cooped up together.
?Vaccines are being field tested and crucial trials are going on. Right now we?re looking at mid-October to November (for the vaccine availability) but the date is changing weekly.?
Shirley Hughes, Northeast Tennessee Regional Health Office emergency response coordinator, said, ?We?re planning for the worst case scenario, although we?re not seeing that now. The World Health Organization has declared the Phase 6 pandemic by (H1NI?s) reach, not severity. Now we?re at Level 2 in severity, the worst is Level 5.?
In addition to sentinel providers, Hughes said the department is doing case investigations and case management. ?When it becomes widespread, we won?t be able to do that because we won?t have the resources. We?ll just have to educate people how to take care of theirselves. Without vaccine, all we have are our community-based strategies, education that can save a lot a lives. We can prevent death just by things like good hand washing and isolating ourselves when we are sick.?
Locally, Hughes said, ?We could have a real problem with resources? and the Department of Health is ?looking at our churches and our ministries for support. Hospitals are going to be very overburdened, so we?re asking people to stay at home if they can because, if you go a hospital, you?re going to be exposed to everything and it?s going to be a real challenge.?
For homeless shelters and other congregate housing sites where there will be H1N1 cases to care for, Hughes said, the Department of Health is ?training staff and writing policies for procedures? for ?what caregivers need to do.?
Area schools are already dealing with the virus?s surface survival rate of 24 to 48 hours, she said. Plans are being discussed for schools to provide home meals for children with parents, especially single parents, who become ill.
?There will be a lot of people stranded at home with no one to care for them and we?re planning for that, stockpiling supplies and discussing food handling and food and medical supply disposal procedures to provide support for ill individuals. There could be fire departments that, when they are not fighting fires, are delivering medicines to homes.
With businesses and especially with public utilities, Hughes said, ?We?re discussing the need for cross training employees from outside those departments so our utilities can continue to operate.
?Incident commands for public health communication are being developed through county Emergency Management Agencies, Health Operation Centers and Volunteers Active in Disaster programs.
Because of the transient nature of the homeless population and the challenges involved in vaccinating, isolating and caring for the homeless when they are ill, Don Minor, vice president of the Appalachian Regional Coalition on Homelessness, said the federal Department of Housing and Urban Development has asked regional ?Continuum of Care? alliances like ARCH to play a leading role in pandemic preparedness planning.
?Our concern is no one is showing up for these pre-emergency VOAD meetings and, when the emergency occurs, everyone will show up wanting to help but won?t be allowed to because they haven?t had the training.?
More information about VOAD program and training sessions already under way may be obtained by contacting David Guinn at the Johnson City Red Cross office at 926-3561, or Rhonda Chafin, executive director of the Second Harvest Food Bank of Northeast Tennessee at 477-4053
By SUE GUINN LEGG
Published August 27th, 2009
?We have to assume that 30 percent of the population, that?s 30 percent of everybody, will get sick,? Jim Bean, emergency response coordinator for the Sullivan County Health Department, said Wednesday during a pandemic preparedness session with health and human services agencies serving the homeless in Northeast Tennessee.
?In Northeast Tennessee, that?s 146,683 people, almost 150,000, or (close to) the entire population of Sullivan County,? he said in contemplating worstcase scenarios.
More than 73,000 East Tennesseans will need outpatient care, Bean said. If the outbreak is moderate, 1,500 will be hospitalized or, if it is severe, 16,000. Fifteen percent of those hospitalized will require intensive care, roughly 220 patients if the spread is moderate and 2,500 if it?s a severe. And 0.2 percent of those infected will die, or 223 area residents in a moderate outbreak and 2,900 if the situation is severe.
With cases of human-to-human transmission occurring since March and 40 countries involved so far, the World Health Organization has declared the H1N1 at ?Pandemic Level 6,? a level Bean said experts previously considered the worst-case scenario.
?We?re there,? he said. ?But we have not seen the chaos everyone expected. Right now, most cases are mild. You have typical (flu) symptoms with maybe some stomach things thrown in. And the situation in Mexico is slowing down.?
Because the status of pandemic and recommendations to address it change very rapidly and because the Internet is loaded with self-described experts offering their opinions as fact, Bean encouraged agency representatives to look exclusively to the federal Centers for Disease Control and Tennessee Health Department Web sites ? www. CDC.gov and http://health.state. tn.us ? for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
Bean said the health department?s current emphasis is H1N1 prevention rather than treatment, although the department has engaged a limited network of ?sentinel? private health care providers and hospitals designated to test flu patients for H1N1 to provide a daily snapshot of what is happening with the virus. Tennessee also is assisting the federal government with the storage of about 25 percent of the strategic national stockpile of medicines and medical supplies that could be in short supply if subsequent waves of N1H1 are severe.
?Basically we?re telling people to do what our mothers told us to do, good hand washing, good hygiene, covering our coughs and covering our sneezes, limiting our (physical) contact with others, not touching your face, staying home when we are sick and seeking medical care and not trying to fight our way through it.?
?It?s is the responsibility of individuals to protect themselves and their community,? Bean said.
As for the future, Bean said, ?Cases are going to continue. The numbers are going to change. We may see drastic increases then things will drop back down. Much depends on the weather, if it?s warm and people are outside or if it?s cold and we?re all cooped up together.
?Vaccines are being field tested and crucial trials are going on. Right now we?re looking at mid-October to November (for the vaccine availability) but the date is changing weekly.?
Shirley Hughes, Northeast Tennessee Regional Health Office emergency response coordinator, said, ?We?re planning for the worst case scenario, although we?re not seeing that now. The World Health Organization has declared the Phase 6 pandemic by (H1NI?s) reach, not severity. Now we?re at Level 2 in severity, the worst is Level 5.?
In addition to sentinel providers, Hughes said the department is doing case investigations and case management. ?When it becomes widespread, we won?t be able to do that because we won?t have the resources. We?ll just have to educate people how to take care of theirselves. Without vaccine, all we have are our community-based strategies, education that can save a lot a lives. We can prevent death just by things like good hand washing and isolating ourselves when we are sick.?
Locally, Hughes said, ?We could have a real problem with resources? and the Department of Health is ?looking at our churches and our ministries for support. Hospitals are going to be very overburdened, so we?re asking people to stay at home if they can because, if you go a hospital, you?re going to be exposed to everything and it?s going to be a real challenge.?
For homeless shelters and other congregate housing sites where there will be H1N1 cases to care for, Hughes said, the Department of Health is ?training staff and writing policies for procedures? for ?what caregivers need to do.?
Area schools are already dealing with the virus?s surface survival rate of 24 to 48 hours, she said. Plans are being discussed for schools to provide home meals for children with parents, especially single parents, who become ill.
?There will be a lot of people stranded at home with no one to care for them and we?re planning for that, stockpiling supplies and discussing food handling and food and medical supply disposal procedures to provide support for ill individuals. There could be fire departments that, when they are not fighting fires, are delivering medicines to homes.
With businesses and especially with public utilities, Hughes said, ?We?re discussing the need for cross training employees from outside those departments so our utilities can continue to operate.
?Incident commands for public health communication are being developed through county Emergency Management Agencies, Health Operation Centers and Volunteers Active in Disaster programs.
Because of the transient nature of the homeless population and the challenges involved in vaccinating, isolating and caring for the homeless when they are ill, Don Minor, vice president of the Appalachian Regional Coalition on Homelessness, said the federal Department of Housing and Urban Development has asked regional ?Continuum of Care? alliances like ARCH to play a leading role in pandemic preparedness planning.
?Our concern is no one is showing up for these pre-emergency VOAD meetings and, when the emergency occurs, everyone will show up wanting to help but won?t be allowed to because they haven?t had the training.?
More information about VOAD program and training sessions already under way may be obtained by contacting David Guinn at the Johnson City Red Cross office at 926-3561, or Rhonda Chafin, executive director of the Second Harvest Food Bank of Northeast Tennessee at 477-4053
