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"Although the virus can cause very severe and fatal illness, also in young and healthy people, the number of such cases remains small".
Very true.
My understanding is that the reason for the article is to emphasize that this presentation of severe, acute viral pneumonia is more common among those infected with 2009 H1N1 and affects a younger age group than is seen among those infected during outbreaks of seasonal influenza.
I read it as stating a difference in the presentations, not as trying to sow panic. The larger implications for increased demand of intensive care services and need for ventilators during this outbreak is worth considering.
This was clear since the start of pandemic in Mid March 2009, Mexico.
ONLY A OPINION: If the above is a current fact, it is enaugh to be concerned.
For seasonal flu, safe vaccines exists mainly enaugh matched mostly of the years, for this one we don't know what will happen.
The reality fact that only low numbers of people seems infected, and that after ~2 months the peak start to lowering, sems more because of the impossibility of the virus to make much more infected, not that it is so light.
I'm stil not much believing the presumpted theory of a such light (mild) illness which were already infected many milions, or hundreds of milions worldwide, but it is so light that even such cases were not noticed, and reported.
From the above theory, the serious numbers are very, very, low.
It seems maybe more probable that this virus is not enaugh able to spread itself more than seasonal flu, but its effects are more serious than seasonal flu, which is visible by the fulminant cases, and those died on the ventilators (which now seems needed to be of an very special rare vent kind, FT thread), things that happens very rare from seasonal flu (elderly apart).
So, I don't believe much in the theories that this virus is history.
I believe more that it makes 100x more deaths than seasonal flu, and that it can gain much more infectiousness if it will subenter in a 2nd, or 3d wave, of an more human acustomed variant.
If so, it will be enaugh to reach the big numbers of infections (example: 3 bilions of infected), to make big numbers of deaths, if the vaccines are faked/unsure/late.
Maybe I'm wrong, but I haven't trust in some areas policies of no pandemic virus lab/X rays checkings when symptoms are present but you are not hospitalized, or about clouded atypical pneumonias diagnoses, in these pandemic times.
Just because the new flu lacks genetic factors that virologists "believe" caused virulence in previous pandemics is not evidence that there are not unknown genetic factors that increase virulence in the new flu.
Pandemics have regional variations and if one more virulent becomes fit, it will fly all around the world.
This HiN1, when you investigate ARDS symptoms, choose the countries, is extremely high and this event the most lethal one except maybe the lethality among elderlies that we shall statistically know in few months.
I do not totally agree tough with Ironorehopper statement that a second wave will be more lethal, of course I understand that 9 months later you have more infected persons, more ARDS, more deaths, but it does not necessary means a more lethal waves.
#8: "Absolute quarantine has been shown definitely to exclude influenza.
The experience of Fort St. Philip, on the Mississippi River below New Orleans, is a case in point.
This post was able to maintain an effective isolation and entirely escaped infection during the fall wave of the disease.<sup>32</sup><sup> </sup>"
#13: "One point that appears important in diagnosis is the very general agreement that the throat presented a characteristic appearance at onset.
The various descriptions agree closely that the characteristic influenza throat showed a brilliantly red, glazed appearance of the pharynx and fauces without swelling or exudation. This appearance was most marked on the soft palate, and the sharp delimitation of the reddening at the margin of the hard palate was stressed. This throat condition was described not only in connection with the spring outbreak but with that of the fall as well. All patients complained of some degree of sore throat.
During severe outbreaks, many patients exhibited a hemorrhagic tendency. "
___
Above there are well defined clinical symptoms to locate it:
"the throat presented a characteristic appearance at onset".
Throat problems are present now in this pandemic flu as pretty frequent also.
So, the GP's could also locate it without tests, if informed.
And absolute quarantine payed.
Just because the new flu lacks genetic factors that virologists "believe" caused virulence in previous pandemics is not evidence that there are not unknown genetic factors that increase virulence in the new flu.
Pandemics have regional variations and if one more virulent becomes fit, it will fly all around the world.
Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
However, to date the propensity of the epidemiologic evidence supports the genetic evidence. The virus circulating throughout the world is no more virulent than the one in Mexico City in April.
Doctors are reporting a severe form of swine flu that goes straight to the lungs, causing severe illness in otherwise healthy young people and requiring expensive hospital treatment, the World Health Organization said on Friday.
How can a severe form of swine flu be the same form/variant of the
H1N1, if it is a severe form???
I also add a BRKG icon to this thread due to the serious issue.
Does anyone have a link to the original newsreport/update from WHO on this issue?
OK, I just realized that it didn´t help that I added the BRKG icon, could a moderator add it to the actual thread, so that people who look through the "FluTrackers lates Posts" AND in the "Global Spread of A/H1N1 - Tracking World Wide Virulence & Age Distribution" section notice this serious news.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dark Horse
Just because the new flu lacks genetic factors that virologists "believe" caused virulence in previous pandemics is not evidence that there are not unknown genetic factors that increase virulence in the new flu.
Pandemics have regional variations and if one more virulent becomes fit, it will fly all around the world.
However, to date the propensity of the epidemiologic evidence supports the genetic evidence. The virus circulating throughout the world is no more virulent than the one in Mexico City in April.
WHO seems to think there is a more severe form circulating, hence this thread. I'm not in a position to ascertain whether the WHO is correct in its findings. As I recall when the CDC first recognized the pandemic virus in Mexico City, they freaked out and now say that the virus is not as dangerous as they first thought when seeing what it did in Mexico.
This is probably influenza heresy, but since I am not a scientist, I have nothing to lose for posing it as a possibility: while influenza scientists think they know what causes increased transmissiblity and lethality, their knowledge extends to the examination of established and historic influenza viruses, not these novel triple reassortants and certainly not whatever it mutates into. It's just possible that this new flu has a genetic trick or two up its sleeve. Perhaps just a Barry "bubble" at the moment.
I would certainly not accuse our best and brightest influenza scientists of hubris. No. No. But I am old enough to remember when the best and brightest believed that ulcers were caused by stress, diet, etc. The guy who suggested that the H. pylori bacteria was a major cause of stomach ulcers was dismissed as a heretic.
It's so very comforting to hear from CDC and other politicians that we don't see any reason to worry about this back-to-school forced second wave, unless, as Dr. Tom Frieden said, the virus changes. Hm-m-m. Do viruses change? Maybe someone should ask the good Dr. Frieden.
I've studied and marked up two very interesting out-of-print books: K. David Patterson's Pandemic Influenza, 1700-1900 and W.I.B. Beveridge's influenza: The Last Great Plague. They seem to think that second waves are more likely to be lethal, but....what do they know anyway? They don't work for CDC or HHS.
On Washington Journal early this morning,(08/29/09) "Open Phones" they ran a short announcement by the CDC basically saying .....unless the H1N1 flu changes we are not anticipating the pandemic here (USA) to be as bad as others have predicted.....
Unfortunately, this along with other snippets that have aired on CNBC, presenting their ultra conservative views, are not segregated out for reviewing on video.
On Washington Journal early this morning,(08/29/09) "Open Phones" they ran a short announcement by the CDC basically saying .....unless the H1N1 flu changes we are not anticipating the pandemic here (USA) to be as bad as others have predicted.....
Your taxpayer dollars at work. Don't worry. Be happy.
On Washington Journal early this morning,(08/29/09) "Open Phones" they ran a short announcement by the CDC basically saying .....unless the H1N1 flu changes we are not anticipating the pandemic here (USA) to be as bad as others have predicted.....
Let me try to understand "CDC speak": the virus won't be bad unless it changes. Is that like the weather will be fine unless it rains? Gee whiz, good thing that influenza viruses don't change much -- not any more than the weather.
Let me try to understand "CDC speak": the virus won't be bad unless it changes. Is that like the weather will be fine unless it rains?
It seems to me that the public health authorities all over the world have basically been dispensing pretty much the same message for several months now: the Swine Flu virus that showed up in North America causes illness that for the majority of patients is fully resolved without medical attention, but we will monitor the situation carefully to see if the virus changes (mutates) in a way that would make it more virulent.
Using a weather analogy, one might say that the weather is currently sunny and clear and is expected to stay that way until the tropical storm off the coast makes landfall bringing some wind and rain. However, if the pressure drops in the storm, it could develop into a full blown hurricane, therefore, we should all monitor carefully.
The morale of this pandemic is perhaps that despite huge research fundings no clearly useful instruments are to date available to fast-track the evolution of the influenza viruses.
We have no new therapeutical tools to improve the survival rate for ARDS patients, even influenza linked or not.
We have not a vaccine manufacturing technology and surge capacity to respond a sudden emergency.
The ecology of influenza viruses is poorly understood.
The health care is a luxury for only a small proportion of world's population.
Media outlets and television are sometimes badly able to cope with health emergencies, and put incorrectly informations, causing anxiety among people.
More than a decade of an ill information, based more on official sources instead that ground facts, causes a loss of confidence among public opinion.
Clearly, it is among our must to cast doubts on WHO and other health agencies press statements and reports: with some degree of certainty, we may suspect that a portion of the truth are kept secret; with the help of a congerie of tools, people, we could be able to track sudden change in pandemic severity.
Papers, research articles, daily news reports may help us to see if these official statements are based on solid basis or not.
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