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Texas %ILI Week 41
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Re: Texas %ILI Week 41
Good correlation with Google Flu Trends
http://www.google.org/flutrends/intl/en_gb/us/
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Re: Texas %ILI Week 41
Originally posted by Vibrant62 View Post
It continues to appear as if the virus, at the moment, has difficulty sustaining airborne transmission adult to adult (in warm climates anyway) thus reducing spread. Barry mentioned the recent ferret studies supporting this in the interview with Florida1 yesterday. Also Australian research suggested that for every infected adult less than one other adult would be infected by them. This number was greater than one only for child to child spread.
As it gets colder, airborne transmission becomes easier for the virus (and might select for E627K?) and I wonder if this explains the very rapid rise being seen in Canada in particular.
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Re: Texas %ILI Week 41
Google trend shows a peak in many US-states now
??!I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT
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Re: Texas %ILI Week 41
Originally posted by gsgs View PostGoogle trend shows a peak in many US-states now
??!
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Re: Texas %ILI Week 41
Originally posted by Hogweed View PostIt continues to appear as if the virus, at the moment, has difficulty sustaining airborne transmission adult to adult (in warm climates anyway) thus reducing spread. Barry mentioned the recent ferret studies supporting this in the interview with Florida1 yesterday. Also Australian research suggested that for every infected adult less than one other adult would be infected by them. This number was greater than one only for child to child spread."I know God will not give me anything I can't handle. I just wish that He didn't trust me so much." - Mother Teresa of Calcutta
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Re: Texas %ILI Week 41
I can't see in that chart that Georgia is back up again ?
I haven't followed google-trends so much ...
maybe our google-specialist can tell us, when USA peaks
do they have a forum ?I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT
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Re: Texas %ILI Week 41
Originally posted by JimO View PostWouldn't this support timely school closings as an effective means for delaying the spread of H1N1 until sufficient numbers of vaccines can be deployed?
Australia was one of the first countries of the southern hemisphere to experience influenza A(H1N1)v with community transmission apparent in Victoria, Australia, by 22 May 2009. With few identified imported cases, the epidemic spread through schools and communities leading to 897 confirmed cases by 3 June 2009. The estimated reproduction ratio up to 31 May 2009 was 2.4 (95% credible interval (CI): 2.1-2.6). Methods designed to account for undetected transmission reduce this estimate to 1.6 (95% CI: 1.5-1.8). Time varying reproduction ratio estimates show a steady decline in observed transmission over the first 14 days of the epidemic. This could be accounted for by ascertainment bias or a true impact of interventions including antiviral prophylaxis, treatment and school closure. Most cases (78%) in the first 19 days in Victoria were under the age of 20 years-old. Estimates suggest that the average youth primary case infected at least two other youths in the early growth phase, which was sufficient to drive the epidemic.
Despite the limitations of this study, our results support the value of public health interventions that target the school age population. Governments considering mitigation strategies that involve major social disruption, such as school closure, need to weigh the relative costs and benefits of such action. Results from modelling suggest that school closure is effective if done early and universally, and if it leads to reduced contact [20]. Pre-emptive school closure is predicted to be more effective than reactive school closure. However, the effects of any school closure are estimated to be greater in settings where school transmission is high [22], such as Victoria, where school age children account for the majority of early transmission.
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