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Texas %ILI Week 41

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  • Texas %ILI Week 41

    Source: http://www.dshs.state.tx.us/idcu/dis...eillance/2010/

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    "I know God will not give me anything I can't handle. I just wish that He didn't trust me so much." - Mother Teresa of Calcutta

  • #2
    Re: Texas %ILI Week 41

    Good correlation with Google Flu Trends
    http://www.google.org/flutrends/intl/en_gb/us/

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    • #3
      Re: Texas %ILI Week 41

      Originally posted by Vibrant62 View Post
      Good correlation with Google Flu Trends
      http://www.google.org/flutrends/intl/en_gb/us/

      Google had Texas peaking earlier (if indeed this is a final peak) in Week 39. Google's value for week 41 was 10.8% and the official value is 11.7%. Of note Google's current value for Texas (week 43) is 8.4% and falling.

      It continues to appear as if the virus, at the moment, has difficulty sustaining airborne transmission adult to adult (in warm climates anyway) thus reducing spread. Barry mentioned the recent ferret studies supporting this in the interview with Florida1 yesterday. Also Australian research suggested that for every infected adult less than one other adult would be infected by them. This number was greater than one only for child to child spread.

      As it gets colder, airborne transmission becomes easier for the virus (and might select for E627K?) and I wonder if this explains the very rapid rise being seen in Canada in particular.

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      • #4
        Re: Texas %ILI Week 41

        Google trend shows a peak in many US-states now


        ??!
        I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
        my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

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        • #5
          Re: Texas %ILI Week 41

          Originally posted by gsgs View Post
          Google trend shows a peak in many US-states now


          ??!
          Look at Georgia - back up again (See thread http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/sho...d.php?t=130148 ). Also note that the way Google graphs the data all the lines straighten out at the start of the week as it plots a new week on the X axis but only 1 days worth of new week data for the Y axis (so it's almost the same as the final value for the week before). The best chart is then one posted on Sunday with data for a complete week. You can correct for this if you load the data into a spread sheet and scale the part current week data.

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          • #6
            Re: Texas %ILI Week 41

            Originally posted by Hogweed View Post
            It continues to appear as if the virus, at the moment, has difficulty sustaining airborne transmission adult to adult (in warm climates anyway) thus reducing spread. Barry mentioned the recent ferret studies supporting this in the interview with Florida1 yesterday. Also Australian research suggested that for every infected adult less than one other adult would be infected by them. This number was greater than one only for child to child spread.
            Wouldn't this support timely school closings as an effective means for delaying the spread of H1N1 until sufficient numbers of vaccines can be deployed?
            "I know God will not give me anything I can't handle. I just wish that He didn't trust me so much." - Mother Teresa of Calcutta

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            • #7
              Re: Texas %ILI Week 41

              I can't see in that chart that Georgia is back up again ?

              I haven't followed google-trends so much ...

              maybe our google-specialist can tell us, when USA peaks


              do they have a forum ?
              I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
              my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Texas %ILI Week 41

                Originally posted by JimO View Post
                Wouldn't this support timely school closings as an effective means for delaying the spread of H1N1 until sufficient numbers of vaccines can be deployed?
                Yes and the authors said exactly this in their conclusions.

                http://www.eurosurveillance.org/View...rticleId=19363

                Despite the limitations of this study, our results support the value of public health interventions that target the school age population. Governments considering mitigation strategies that involve major social disruption, such as school closure, need to weigh the relative costs and benefits of such action. Results from modelling suggest that school closure is effective if done early and universally, and if it leads to reduced contact [20]. Pre-emptive school closure is predicted to be more effective than reactive school closure. However, the effects of any school closure are estimated to be greater in settings where school transmission is high [22], such as Victoria, where school age children account for the majority of early transmission.

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