USA - Texas: Public Health department confirmed H1N1pdm09 outbreak - in Houston area media report of 13 fatalities - Montgomery county health says 2 confirmed H1N1pdm09

[Pathfinder]

Re: USA - Texas: Public Health department confirmed H1N1pdm09 outbreak - in Houston area media report of 6 fatalities, 14 more critically ill - Montgomery county health says 2 confirmed H1N1pdm09

Doctor: Specificity lacking in flu tests

Posted: Dec 20, 2013 5:08 PM CST Updated: Dec 20, 2013 5:30 PM CST
By Shaley Sanders - bio | email
...
"Interestingly, most of the regular test that you do for influenza, it's showing negative and that's the problem. This test does not have really good sensitivity," said Dr. Shabaz Ahmad, an infectious disease expert at Good Shepherd Medical Center in Longview.
...
"What I'm finding is that it is not really sensitive for H1N1 somehow," Dr. Ahmad said.

"I have even a few cases where their tests were twice negative, so we have to do specific testing," Dr. Ahmad said.

So why do doctors not start with those tests that have more specific results?

"Most of the time it is not cost effective to do a PCR test at the get go, most of the time we do the regular testing," Dr. Ahmad said.

In fact, Dr. Ahmad believes the mysterious illnesses in Montgomery County may be still be attributed to the flu, despite the negatives results.

"The mysterious kind of deaths coming, like influenza-like illness with mysterious death, and the test is negative for flu and you think, 'Oh, there's no flu," but still flu could be hiding there and you need to do specific testing to find out," Dr. Ahmad said.
...
"What we are seeing in the hospitals and mysterious death, this is basically the iceberg," Dr. Ahmad said.

The peak of flu season is typically in January or February.

Full text:

http://www.kplctv.com/story/24276149/doctor-specificity-lacking-in-regular-flu-tests

[alert]

Re: USA - Texas: Public Health department confirmed H1N1pdm09 outbreak - in Houston area media report of 6 fatalities, 14 more critically ill - Montgomery county health says 2 confirmed H1N1pdm09

Here's a video of a ninth suspected case in Montgomery County:

http://www.click2houston.com/lifestyle/health/texas-seeing-some-of-highest-levels-of-flu-activity-in-country/-/2597500/23573560/-/rhe9q0z/-/index.html

[sharon sanders]

Re: USA - Texas: Public Health department confirmed H1N1pdm09 outbreak - in Houston area media report of 6 fatalities, 14 more critically ill - Montgomery county health says 2 confirmed H1N1pdm09

We have a thread started for the Texas: Houston area flu articles that are separate from the flu event in Montgomery county:

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?p=517310#post517310

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Re: USA - Texas: Public Health department confirmed H1N1pdm09 outbreak - in Houston area media report of 6 fatalities, 14 more critically ill - Montgomery county health says 2 confirmed H1N1pdm09

Here's another likely H1N1 death. Since this one is female, it's not one of the four in question so far, which are all male.

http://www.khou.com/news/health/Families-hope-news-of-H1N1-cases-help-solve-mysterious-deaths-236672991.html

[alert]

Re: USA - Texas: Public Health department confirmed H1N1pdm09 outbreak - in Houston area media report of 6 fatalities, 14 more critically ill - Montgomery county health says 2 confirmed H1N1pdm09

I wonder to what effect the false negatives were due more to poor sample collection or sloppy handling of samples rather than due to inaccurate testing. I can't imagine much priority was placed on these ILI samples until patients started dying. As has been noted repeatedly both here and elsewhere, most ILI in the US simply doesn't get a diagnosis.

I think journalists do need to be careful now as to precisely what they report. There are two ways of counting cases. We can count them based on thier outcome (deceased, critically ill, recovered) or based on laboratory testing (confirmed, probable, suspected, excluded). So the above KHOU report of 6 confirmed fatalities actually states two things: 6 people have tested positive for H1N1, AND all 6 have died. Is that true? No other source has reported that.

Might the correct statement be that there are 6 probable fatalites, 2 of whom are confirmed and 2 confirmed critically ill cases in Conroe?

It does appear that the number of confirmed severe H1N1 cases in the Houston area is at least 16 (14 critically ill plus 2 confirmed dead OUTSIDE of Conroe). It also appears that the Conroe Regional Medical is confirming 5-7 new H1N1 cases daily.

It also seems evident this entire outbreak is due to H1N1pdm09.

[sharon sanders]

Re: USA - Texas: Public Health department confirmed H1N1pdm09 outbreak - in Houston area media report of 6 fatalities, 14 more critically ill - Montgomery county health says 2 confirmed H1N1pdm09

It is disconcerting that the initial test results were unreliable - at least in 2 cases that have now tested positive.

H1N1pdm09 has been around for 4+ years. Why are the rapid tests not more accurate at this time?

And if there is a discrepancy between media, health officials, health departments when talking about such tiny numbers such as 4, 6, 8, what would happen in a really large outbreak?

[sharon sanders]

Re: USA - Texas: Public Health department confirmed unidentified ILI illness - 4 died out of 8 hospitalized including 2 "very sick" in Montgomery county - more tests pending - 2 cases confirmed H1N1pdm09

All four fatalities confirmed H1N1:

http://www.khou.com/news/local/BREAKING-Houston-area-health-officials-say-6-deaths-linked-to-H1N1-236620791.html

HOUSTON – Health officials say there have been six confirmed deaths from H1N1 in the Houston area recently, KHOU 11 News confirmed Thursday afternoon. That includes the four deaths at Conroe Regional Medical Center.

At least 14 people have become critically ill in Harris, Montgomery and Jefferson counties, including the four patients at Conroe Regional Medical Center.

This is the same strain of H1N1 that caused a pandemic in 2009. Doctors have been seeing hundreds of new cases recently in Texas and nationwide. In fact, H1N1 is one of the viruses included in this year’s flu shot.

Health officials from all over the region spent Thursday afternoon in a conference call comparing notes about all the cases. They suspect that all of the cases at the Conroe Regional Medical Center are H1N1, or what used to be called the “swine flu.”

[snip]

This media report conflicts with the above public health statement. The Montgomery county health department does not mention anything about the deaths.

So....??

[sharon sanders]

Re: USA - Texas: Public Health department confirmed unidentified ILI illness - 4 died out of 8 hospitalized including 2 "very sick" in Montgomery county - more tests pending - one case confirmed H1N1pdm09

Montgomery County Public Health

<A class=uiLinkSubtle href="https://www.facebook.com/mctxpublichealth/posts/10150349054219970"><ABBR class="timestamp livetimestamp" title="Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 2:58pm" data-utime="1387493929">8 minutes ago</ABBR>

Contact: Jennifer Nichols-Contella FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Cell: (936) 444-9724 12/19/13
Email: jnichols@mchd-tx.org

UPDATE - INFLUENZA LIKE ILLNESS ARISES IN MONTGOMERY COUNTY

As of Thursday afternoon, one additional case of H1N1 has been confirmed in Montgomery County. This patient is currently in an area hospital receiving treatment. Labs are being repeated on all remaining cases by the CDC. There are currently two confirmed H1N1 cases in Montgomery County.

The Montgomery County Public Health District is coordinating with regional and state resources to manage the case investigations. Health officials continue to encourage the public to be vaccinated for the flu, especially those who are at high risk.

Montgomery County Public Health District is monitoring the situation closely and will provide more information as it arises.
###

https://www.facebook.com/mctxpublich...ation=timeline

more....

Montgomery County Public Health: There have only been two confirmed cases of H1N1 in Montgomery County Amber Wittnebert

[alert]

Re: USA - Texas: Public Health department confirmed unidentified ILI illness - 4 died out of 8 hospitalized including 2 &quot;very sick&quot; in Montgomery county - more tests pending - 2 cases confirmed H1N1pdm09

All four fatalities confirmed H1N1:

http://www.khou.com/news/local/BREAKING-Houston-area-health-officials-say-6-deaths-linked-to-H1N1-236620791.html

HOUSTON ? Health officials say there have been six confirmed deaths from H1N1 in the Houston area recently, KHOU 11 News confirmed Thursday afternoon. That includes the four deaths at Conroe Regional Medical Center.

At least 14 people have become critically ill in Harris, Montgomery and Jefferson counties, including the four patients at Conroe Regional Medical Center.

This is the same strain of H1N1 that caused a pandemic in 2009. Doctors have been seeing hundreds of new cases recently in Texas and nationwide. In fact, H1N1 is one of the viruses included in this year?s flu shot.

Health officials from all over the region spent Thursday afternoon in a conference call comparing notes about all the cases. They suspect that all of the cases at the Conroe Regional Medical Center are H1N1, or what used to be called the ?swine flu.?

[snip]

[Pathfinder]

Re: USA - Texas: Public Health department confirmed unidentified ILI illness - 4 died out of 8 hospitalized including 2 &quot;very sick&quot; in Montgomery county - more tests pending - one case confirmed H1N1pdm09

Montgomery County Public Health

<A class=uiLinkSubtle href="https://www.facebook.com/mctxpublichealth/posts/10150349054219970"><ABBR class="timestamp livetimestamp" title="Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 2:58pm" data-utime="1387493929">8 minutes ago</ABBR>

Contact: Jennifer Nichols-Contella FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Cell: (936) 444-9724 12/19/13
Email: jnichols@mchd-tx.org

UPDATE - INFLUENZA LIKE ILLNESS ARISES IN MONTGOMERY COUNTY

As of Thursday afternoon, one additional case of H1N1 has been confirmed in Montgomery County. This patient is currently in an area hospital receiving treatment. Labs are being repeated on all remaining cases by the CDC. There are currently two confirmed H1N1 cases in Montgomery County.

The Montgomery County Public Health District is coordinating with regional and state resources to manage the case investigations. Health officials continue to encourage the public to be vaccinated for the flu, especially those who are at high risk.

Montgomery County Public Health District is monitoring the situation closely and will provide more information as it arises.
###

https://www.facebook.com/mctxpublichealth?hc_location=timeline

[alert]

Re: USA - Texas: Public Health department confirmed unidentified ILI illness - 4 died out of 8 hospitalized including 2 &quot;very sick&quot; in Montgomery county - more tests pending - one case confirmed H1N1pdm09

http://houston.culturemap.com/news/city_life/12-19-13-mystery-killer-illness-solved-officials-think-they-finally-might-have-an-answer-but-its-hardly-encouraging/

[snip]

Derrick Goodwill, a physician assistant at the Conroe Urgent Care Clinic, tells KHOU Ch. 11 his team sees at least five to seven people testing positive for H1N1 each day, a huge spike since the start of the Texas flu season in October. All patients are recommended to take the Tamiflu antiviral, even if they test negative for the strain.

[snip]

(So did the "mystery illness" patients get Tamiflu?)

[sharon sanders]

Re: USA - Texas: Public Health department confirmed unidentified ILI illness - 4 died out of 8 hospitalized including 2 &quot;very sick&quot; in Montgomery county - more tests pending - one case confirmed H1N1pdm09

A note:

FluTrackers does not offer medical advice and our vaccine policy - for all vaccines - is for people to consult their medical practitioners.

[curiosity]

Re: Discussion thread: USA - Texas: Unknown ILI flu type illness December 17, 2013

http://www.dshs.state.tx.us/idcu/disease/influenza/surveillance/2013/

Note: 1 Pediatric death with un-subtyped influenza virus reported in September

The first round of H1N1pdm09 was significant for the pediatric population as well - three times as many deaths during that flu season compared to past seasons.

[Giuseppe]

Re: USA - Texas: Public Health department confirmed unidentified ILI illness - 4 died out of 8 hospitalized including 2 &quot;very sick&quot; in Montgomery county - more tests pending - one case confirmed H1N1pdm09

Unfortunately, we know well as H1N1pdm09 likes Young and health people.

Since the investigation is ongoing, further details will be available to draw a conclusive diagnosis by health authorities. gm

[Shiloh]

Re: USA - Texas: Public Health department confirmed unidentified ILI illness - 4 died out of 8 hospitalized including 2 &quot;very sick&quot; in Montgomery county - more tests pending - one case confirmed H1N1pdm09

Source: http://www.khou.com/news/texas-news/...236558201.html


North Texas man dies of swine flu; could be 'mystery illness' from Houston
by JANET ST. JAMES / WFAA
WFAA
Posted on December 19, 2013 at 9:16 AM

EULESS, Texas -- Looking at photographs shown at her husband's funeral is so very hard for Ashley Wright.

"He was too young,? she said. "I should not be a widow at 30... So it's pretty devastating."

Dustin Wright, 30, came down with flu-like symptoms just before Thanksgiving. Ashley said he seemed to be getting better, before taking a sudden turn for the worse...

...At first, flu tests were inconclusive.

"The second time they checked him, he came back positive for Influenza A, Influenza B,? Wright said.

Dustin suffered kidney failure, which has been associated with severe cases of H1N1 Type A, or swine flu. He had no known underlying medical conditions.

His case has many similarities to cases in Montgomery County that puzzled doctors this week. Of eight cases in that county, four patients have died...